Attention to exclusive and advanced analytics can give managers an advantage over the average competitor. However, the noise of unnecessary statistics can make the process of using advanced statistics quite intimidating. Here at Broto Fantasy, we aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the FF player by giving you every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.
In this recurring weekly series, we will highlight each of Broto Fantasy's exclusive statistics and use these numbers to project player validity throughout the NFL season.
One game remains between fantasy managers and their shot at a league title. Let’s take a look at some of the top-rated True Value players while using True Matchup Rank to determine who has the easiest matchup with the most upside in the final week of the season.
TRUE THROW VALUE
True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback’s full volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Fantasy managers can essentially understand this as adjusted fantasy points per pass attempt.
Brock Purdy - San Francisco 49ers
True Throw Value: 0.605 (QB2)
Week 17 Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
QB Points Allowed: 21.7 (4th)
Points Over Average: 39.6%
True Matchup Rank: 1st
The 49ers have turned Mr. Irrelevant into a playoff-bound rookie quarterback as the only member of the 2022 draft class to have secured a bid to the postseason. Brock Purdy has far surpassed even the loftiest expectations as the 49ers starting signal-caller. The final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft has now thrown for two touchdowns in four consecutive starts, coughing up just two interceptions with a red-hot completion percentage of 69.4%. Purdy is averaging 17.6 PPG in his four games as the 49ers leading man and now faces off against a Raiders defense that concedes 18.1 PPG of passing production alone to opposing quarterbacks. The seventh-round rookie quarterback could very well sneak his way into the top 12 scorers at the position this week.
TRUE TARGET VALUE
A derivative of True Throw Value. True Target Value analyzes a player’s quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their quarterback’s True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable said player’s targets are. The higher the value, the more projected points.
CeeDee Lamb - Dallas Cowboys
True Target Value: 4.78 (WR14)
Week 17 Opponent: Tennessee Titans
WR Points Allowed: 37.1 (1st)
Points Over Average: 23.1%
True Matchup Rank: 1st
CeeDee Lamb is staring down the barrel of a league-winning outing as the Cowboys travel to face off against the Titans on Thursday Night Football in Week 17. The Titans' defense gives up 279.6 passing yards (31st) per game to their opponents, allowing 37.1 PPG to opposing wide receivers as the league’s best matchup. Lamb is averaging 17.6 PPG (WR8) while pulling a 28.9% target share (WR8). The former first-round pick has topped his previous season highs in every category with two games left on the docket before the Cowboys close out their regular season. The upcoming contest against the Titans could help put an emphatic stamp on a spectacular year for the third-year wideout.
TRUE PLAYER GRADES
A composite grade based on current-year production that evaluates past performance while analyzing trends to predict future production.
In this edition of the True Value Report, we will utilize True Player Grades to analyze the running back position.
Christian McCaffrey - San Francisco 49ers
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Christian McCaffrey is arguably the driving cause in Brock Purdy’s scintillating True Throw Value. The 49ers running back is playing at peak form, mirroring memories of his otherworldly scoring outputs from his early days with the Panthers. McCaffrey is commanding a position-leading 21.7% target share (RB1) while maintaining incredible rushing efficiency and production. The do-it-all dynamo is averaging 20.5 PPR PPG (RB2) on the season as a whole but has upped those numbers in his recent splits with the 49ers, posting a 22.8 PPG average since joining the team. The Raiders are not only the top matchup for opposing quarterbacks but also the easiest matchup for rival running backs as well. The Raiders allow 15.6 PPG of rushing production (21.3% POA - 8th) and 11.0 PPG of receiving production (55.3% POA - 1st) to opposing running backs, setting McCaffrey up for a league-winning week in the fantasy football finals.
*Honorable Mention*
Travis Etienne - Jacksonville Jaguars
True Player Grade: 70.6 (C)
Week 17 Opponent: Houston Texans
RB Points Allowed: 29.7 (1st)
Points Over Average: 28.1%
True Matchup Rank: 5th
There are very few things in life that you can rely on. Death, taxes, and running backs dominating the Texans' defense are on the shortlist. The Texans allow a league-worst 168.6 rushing yards per game, equating to 22.5 PPG of rushing production (50.1% POA) to the running back position.
If you want to follow this series throughout the 2022 season, check out the other weekly reports here:
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.