Broto Bets Week 17

Broto Bets went 1-2 and lost 2.09 units. It was a brutal week and things haven’t been getting better. Hopefully we can go positive to end the year. 

2023 Total: 35-35-2, -7.205u 

Teasers: 

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) @ Indianapolis Colts O/U: 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) 

Themi’s Teaser: Raiders +9.5, Chiefs -0.5 

The Colts are one of the most confusing teams in the league. Sometimes they look like a good enough playoff hopeful that can stay in games and even beat up on lowly opponents. Other times, they fail to do anything. Gardner Minshew is not a full-time starter for a reason and we are seeing why this year. His success in some games is not indicative of his overall value. He failed to do much against the Falcons last week in what was set to be a juicy matchup for him. Michael Pittman Jr. will return after clearing concussion protocol and will provide a massive boost to this passing game. Unfortunately, these Raiders CBs are really good. They’ve flustered many opponents and outside of Pittman, there isn’t a great 2nd option at receiver. Indy will be able to run more effectively on Vegas as they rank 19th in rushing DVOA while Atlanta ranked 5th. Jonathan Taylor ran 18 times for 43 yards and a TD in the loss. Indy is worse against the run, though, and should let Zamir White (Josh Jacobs is doubtful at the time of writing) find a lot of success. He has not taken his new starting role lightly and could be the team’s RB of the future. Aidan O’Connell hasn’t been the answer for this offense but they have some stars there to succeed. A double-digit loss just doesn’t seem likely. 

Did you know that the Chiefs offense ranks 6th in DVOA, 10th in EPA/play, 9th in total yards, and 10th in total points? The way people have been talking about them you would have thought they were performing like the Steelers or Jets. I don’t believe the Chiefs offense is exceptional but it’s clear that they can still generate points and win games. The team is 9-6, tied for 4th in the AFC and their defense is allowing the 2nd fewest points in the entire league. That alone doesn’t inspire the most confidence on a given week but they’re facing a Bengals defense that couldn’t stop an old lady from crossing the street. Mason Rudolph was doing whatever he wanted out there last week and Jake Browning just couldn’t keep up. Trey Hendrickson could feast with a struggling Chiefs OL but outside of him - and despite offensive issues for KC - I just don’t see the Bengals winning this one outside of the jungle. 

Straight: 

Lions +5.5 

Dallas’ downfall has been much anticipated by the rest of the sporting world. Narrowly losing to an exciting Dolphins team is not a disaster but they went from mostly invincible to barely hanging on as a contender. It looked like Dak Prescott was ready to march into any stadium and throw for 300 yards and 3 TDs without breaking a sweat but that just hasn’t happened. Miami and Buffalo have given him some trouble in recent weeks and they’ve both done great against the Dallas defense. It’s not looking quite as scary as when it was stopping Bryce Young, Tommy Devito, and Sam Howell. There are actual NFL QBs ready to pick it apart and Jared Goff should do that here. It’s not always easy to do damage against them but they’ve started to become especially vulnerable against the run. They’re allowing the highest success rate on the ground in the league and get to face a nasty Lions OL with a brutal RB duo. Jared Goff often looks his best when his ground game is going and that should be the case this week. The Ravens and Bears - the only teams to beat Detroit by more than a score - are scary good against the run. Dallas could and should win this at home facing some beatable Lions corners but drives could easy stall here while Detroit churns clock and destroys them in the trenches. 

Raiders +3.5 

The teaser section covers this game. The Raiders are a slight value as a ML play but I’ll take them ATS here to pair with the teaser. Double-dipping into games like this has rarely worked out well but I do view both as having an edge. 

49ers -13.5 (-110) 

Christian McCaffrey O85.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 

This is about as good of a get-right game as anyone could ask for. Brock Purdy threw four interceptions in a brutal 33-19 loss to the Ravens. It’s rare to see the 49ers struggle that much. They were used to stomping everyone that dared test them and it almost looked like that would be the case on Christmas. The 49ers took a 5-0 lead thanks to a wild safety and were often able to drive right down the field. Turnovers really killed them and Baltimore did an amazing job of handling their plentiful weapons. This will not be a weekly happening and they get to take their frustrations out on one of the worst defenses in the league. Washington is dead last against the pass and 18th against the run and almost never has an answer for anyone. The Jets were cruising to a win and put up 30 points on them despite massive offensive issues. The inability to generate pressure has been a pretty big weakness too and Brock Purdy should have all day to find a receiver to throw to. 13.5 is a lot of points but I don’t see Washington doing anything here. They’re out of their element. Although this matchup favors passing, CMC is an elite RB in a great scheme that can put up 100+ yards against anyone. He just did it against the Ravens on 14 carries and he’ll do it here again. He has been unstoppable since the bye week. 

Kyren Williams Over 93.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 

Kyren is 2nd in the league in rushing yards despite only playing 11 games. Over his last 8 games, he has hit 100+ rushing yards in six of them and has become the undisputed bellcow in this Rams offense. They’re clicking at a good time and Matthew Stafford looks as good as ever. The Giants are 27th against the run and allow backfields to explode against them. Kyren should get 20+ carries and 100+ yards in this contest. New York is not built to stop an offense like this.