Broto Bets went 4-2 and won 1.56 units. Christian McCaffrey looked set to smash his rushing over before only playing a handful of snaps in the 2nd half due to a calf strain. Elijah Mitchell ended up rushing 17 times for 80 yards in his place. Kyren Williams had a spectacular game but credit is due to the Giants who often limited his rushing gains and kept the game well within reach. OT would have been nice but you can’t win them all. An overall positive week helps as we head into 2024.
2023 Total: 39-37-2, -5.645u
Teasers:
New York Jets (+1.5) @ New England Patriots O/U: 30.5
Chicago Bears (+3) @ Green Bay Packers O/U: 44
Themi’s Teaser: Jets +7.5, Bears +9
(2-team, 6-point teaser, -120)
The Jets are a strange team. Sometimes they’re staying along - or even beating - good teams. Other times they get utterly dominated. What has been consistent is their ability to keep games against bad teams close. Thankfully they have only lost by a score by one team outside of the top-8 in DVOA (the Chargers with Justin Herbert). The Patriots are looking pretty good right now, winning multiple games and keeping others closer than they needed to be. They also historically dominate the Jets. That aside, they’re 29th in offense and 9th on defense while the Jets are dead last on offense and 3rd on defense. Both of these teams should realistically hope for a loss but pride is still barely on the line. With a pitiful point spread, expect a close game in Foxborough. Breece Hall is hot and could be the difference maker for New York.
The Bears are the hottest team that will miss the playoffs, and teams should be thankful. They’ve mainly beaten flawed or downright bad teams, but their defense has been skyrocketing up the ranks. In weighted DVOA, which favors recent performances, Chicago ranks 7th in the league. Their run defense has especially looked good. They’re 4th in DVOA and EPA. Green Bay, on the other hand, ranks 28th overall in defense. Their 9th ranked offense is what has kept them in games. Jordan Love is proving that he can be the Packers QB of the future, which is a scary sight for all of the league but most of all the Bears. A statement win against their little brother in the division at one of the most historic venues in US sports would send them to the playoffs and give them a boost in pride. The last time this matchup was within nine points was in 2019 which isn’t encouraging but I trust a rising Bears team to prove that they’re not going out quietly. Expect a closer game than usual for this rivalry.
Straight:
Bucs -4.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay can win the division and secure a top-4 seed in the playoffs with a win this week. It seemed like Bryce Young was going to have a boom to end the season but that has been interrupted. An outlier game against the Packers is not something we can expect on a weekly basis. Carolina still boasts a solid secondary but their run defense is atrocious, ranking dead last in both DVOA and EPA. The last time these teams met, Tampa won by just three at home. It may seem foolish to assume that the Panthers couldn’t keep it just as close this week but that was also during a streak of weeks where the team was missing Jamel Dean, Lavonte David, and Devin White. Tampa has been on a tear and ranks highly on both offense and defense. With so much to play for and a chasm in talent, take the Bucs to win this one by about a TD.
Texans -1 (-110)
Devin Singletary Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
This game is essentially a coin-flip. Houston is 14th on offense and 17th on defense while Indy ranks 13th and 18th, respectively. In EPA/play they’re similarly close on both sides of the ball. Both AFC South teams are 9-6 and would guarantee a playoff spot with a win on Saturday night. Houston is recovering from a slew of injuries, notably to QB and OROY frontrunner C.J. Stroud. The Colts have been winning games in recent weeks but don’t tend to beat good teams. They stunned the Ravens in OT during Baltimore’s slow start but only one have 2 other wins against teams over .500 right now: The Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans. Both of those teams look very different since those losses and both teams will be fighting for the playoffs on Saturday. Houston gets the edge in the end. Indy is 22nd in weighted DVOA while Houston is 12th, and while they’re going to be weak at WR outside of Nico Collins, Stroud looked solid in his return from injury and should exploit a weak Colts defense. Michael Pittman Jr is a rare bright spot on offense for the Colts but Derek Stingley is lockdown and the rest of the secondary is very good.
The Colts are 24th against the run in DVOA and EPA, allowing an average of 106.38 rushing yards per game to RBs. Players like Joe Mixon, Rachaad White, Derrick Henry, Zamir White, and Bijan Robinson have found success against them. If Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren weren’t splitting carries, one of them may have gone over 70 yards as well. Singletary is the workhorse in this backfield and is also 84 scrimmage yards shy of a bonus of $125k. The playoffs are on the line for Houston so they have no reason to rest starters or let their foot off the gas. Expect a solid game in a friendly matchup.
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by Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.