Broto Bets went 5-0 and gained 3.62 units in the Divisional Round. The first clean sweep of the season puts us back in the green overall. It would have been nice to get more down on the Chiefs, but hindsight is 20/20. There are only three games left in the year so let’s make them count.
2023 Total: 54-44-2, +0.445u
There is no teaser this week. Although the 49ers are in an excellent spot to be teased down to -1. The Chiefs are just too risky of a leg to consider adding them on, especially after moving to +4 on many books. If you can start a teaser with an empty leg that can be filled in later, I would recommend grabbing SF and potentially filling that in during the championship but many books do not allow that.
Straight:
Ravens -4 (-110)
The Chiefs have not played a team or defense like this all season. They have played an elite offense in Buffalo twice now, but Baltimore boasts the best defense in DVOA. The best defenses that KC has played all year are the Raiders (8th), Patriots (9th), and Jaguars (10th). The Raiders and Pats rank in the bottom-10 in offense and Jacksonville is only 18th. The most “complete” or “balanced” team they have faced thus far outside of Buffalo is Detroit. The Lions won by one in KC in Week 1 of the season. Baltimore is just a completely different monster. The only other teams that are great on both sides of the ball are San Francisco and Dallas. Nothing wrong with Buffalo and their 12th ranked defense but it’s just clearly not the same and Buffalo’s defense was still very hurt despite seemingly getting things together in the 2nd half of the year. Like many have been saying “Mahomes can work his magic,” but they are facing a historically incredible Ravens team. Even missing out on a great -3 line, I will still take Baltimore at -4.
Isiah Pacheco Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Isiah Pacheco Under 65.5 Rushing yards (-115)
The Ravens have been allowing RBs to catch passes against them for great gains but it doesn’t seem to be hurting their bottom line too much. Last week, Devin Singletary caught 5 of 6 targets for 48 yards. His only other games that exceeded 3 targets or 20 receiving yards was against the Jaguars and Titans, two teams that are great against the run but a lot softer against RB receiving. By True Matchup Rank, the Ravens are the 4th best fantasy matchup for RB receiving but that doesn’t immediately translate to betting success. Baltimore is allowing 6.7 passes and 32.3 receiving yards per game to the position. Similar to Singletary, Pacheco has taken advantage of some very juicy matchups like the Jets, Bears (despite a blowout win), and Broncos. He did only get targeted once against the Bills last week despite them ranking quite highly as well, but he gained 14 yards. A couple of receptions could help Pacheco surpass this mark but it’s clearly not a sure thing.
As for his rushing totals, Baltimore ranks 7th in DVOA against the run. They haven’t been impenetrable and have allowed large rushing totals but they’re going to be away underdogs against an incredible defense. Game script doesn’t bode well for a big rushing game but an expected forecast of rain showers could. It just doesn’t seem like KC has faced an opponent like this nor do I believe that they’re ready for them, especially without Joe Thuney. We could be in for a game closer to the Chiefs’ SB loss to the Bucs than any of their other losses.
George Kittle Anytime TD (+130) (0.5u)
The Lions are absolutely abysmal in the red zone. They’re allowing 0.66 TDs per trip, tied with the Eagles for the 3rd most in the league. The 49ers are also the highest scoring red zone offense, at 0.73 per trip. The team clearly prefers to use Christian McCaffrey in that area, as he has 63 rushes and 16 targets in the area according to Pro Football Reference. Deebo Samuel leads the team in RZ targets with 17 but Kittle isn’t far behind in 3rd with 12. Although he’s now trending towards playing, CMC and Kittle should be in line for a lot of RZ work. Detroit boasts an elite run defense which opens the door to a possible Kittle TD. I’m only putting half a unit on this.
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by Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.