Rookies of the Year
C.J. Stroud (QB) - Houston Texans
The former Buckeye is not only the clear favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year but he’s one of the clear fantasy rookies of the year. Stroud finished the fantasy season with 259.5 points, good for 18.5 PPG (QB11). He had six QB1 games in 14 starts. The unfortunate part for Stroud is that he went down in Week 14, missed 2 games, and returned in Week 17 to underwhelm for fantasy teams that trusted him in Championship week. You still have to be happy if he got you that far. The sky's the limit for him with a Texans team that can still fill a lot of holes and give him even better weapons. Getting Tank Dell back will be huge for him in 2024.
De’Von Achane (RB) - Miami Dolphins
Achane may have been a headache for more managers than he helped throughout the season, but that’s not his fault. Nearly nobody was starting him in his 200+ yard, 4 TD game in Week 3 after he only had 2 touches the week before. I’m sure some managers were also hesitant to immediately start him, assuming it could have been a fluke. Even if you started him in his next 2 games (RB4 each time), he then missed 5 weeks, got 2 touches, missed another week, and then only put up a single RB2 or better game before his Week 17 blowup. We deserve to see Achane fully healthy and possibly leading the Dolphins in rushing attempts next season. Overall he was spectacular but the context should still be noted. He’s the RB4 in PPG for a reason.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) - Detroit Lions
Another RB in a shared backfield, Gibbs still found a way to excel. Both Gibbs and David Montgomery exceeded 900 rushing yards while combining for 21 rushing TDs. Gibbs finished with more fantasy points thanks to his receiving usage (70 targets to Montgomery’s 24) but both backs finished similarly in PPG. Anyone who drafted Gibbs was happy to start him each and every week, especially when he seemed to take on a larger role after filling in for Montgomery earlier in the season. It would be foolish to assume that Montgomery, who is still under contract for a few seasons, will immediately fall off. However, the Lions can only do so much to contain Gibbs and his talent. This will continue to be a shared backfield in 2024 but both can keep eating and improving.
Puka Nacua (WR) - Los Angeles Chargers
The Rams sure know how to find diamonds in the rough. Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams are 3rd round picks or later and they’re helping Matthew Stafford light it up in Sean McVay’s offense. This is a truly terrifying trio and Nacua looks to be the future WR1 for the team. Let’s not pretend like he was only doing well when Kupp could take on top corners, Nacua was the top guy from day 1 and began his career with 52 targets, 501 yards, and a TD in 4 games while Kupp was hurt. That’s a solid season for a 2nd round WR, not a quarter of a year for a 5th rounder. He has seven WR1 games and could contend for the greatest value in all of fantasy this season, going undrafted basically everywhere.
Sam LaPorta (TE) - Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions got rid of two of the best skill position players in the league and immediately replaced them with younger, cheaper, and possibly better talent. It’s too early to say how either Gibbs or LaPorta will stack up to D’Andre Swift or T.J. Hockenson as the years go on but they’ve had some damn good starts. LaPorta is set to break the rookie TE receptions record and could climb to 3rd in receiving yards. Add on 9 TDs and you have the half-PPR TE1 in PPG and total points. In full-PPR he “only” ranks 3rd in PPG, trailing Travis Kelce and Hockenson by 0.5. 113 targets isn’t a fluke for a 2nd round pick. He’s producing early and often on a team that really hasn’t found their WR2. It’s possible that things subside for a while but you can’t look at his success in year one and be anything but amazed and excited.
Rookie Standouts
QB Anthony Richardson: 18.4 Points - QB14
Richardson should have been tossing bombs to Michael Pittman Jr, Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce all season. What looked like a promising rookie year, at least from a fantasy perspective, ended rather quickly. Richardson only played in 4 games this season, two of which he was unable to exceed 33% of offensive snaps played. Despite that, he ranks 14th in QB PPG this year and posted two QB1 games and a QB2 game. He threw for 3 TDs and 1 INT while adding another 136 yards and 4 TDs on the ground. Points from rushing are extremely valuable for fantasy QBs and he was looking like a cheat code out there while also posting decent passing numbers. Let’s hope he recovers well for 2024.
RB Bijan Robinson: 12.2 Points - RB20
Bijan could be labeled a disappointment but we should look on the bright side. Despite Arthur Smith often refusing to give him touches, Bijan finished as the RB20 in PPG, finished as an RB1 seven times, and enters Week 18 with the 9th most rushing yards and 11th highest YPA. He only scored 4 rushing TDs, often ceding red zone work to Tyler Allgeier and Desmond Ridder. According to FantasyPros, Bijan had 30 rushes of 10+ yards, tied with Raheem Mostert for the 3rd most in the league. Opportunities should only increase for Robinson in 2024 and hopefully TDs will come with that. He disappointed relative to ADP but still stood out as a reliable option most weeks.
Top Rookie Performers (Half-PPR PPG)
QB C.J. Stroud: 18.5 Points - QB11
RB De’Von Achane: 16.5 Points - RB4
RB Jahmyr Gibbs: 14.8 Points - RB7
WR Puka Nacua: 14.6 Points - WR9
WR Tank Dell: 12.9 Points - WR16
WR Jayden Reed: 11.5 Points - WR24
TE Sam LaPorta: 11.6 Points - TE1
Rookie Disappointments
Bryce Young (QB) - Carolina Panthers
Expectations for Young may not have been very lofty given his surrounding cast. Outside of C.J. Stroud, though, no rookie at the position had as high expectations in year 1. He was the 1st overall pick for a reason but didn’t pay off if you trusted him as a fantasy asset. He managed to put up two QB1 games and six QB2 games which is better than I thought he did. He only exceeded 300 passing yards once and only has two games of 2+ TDs. Hopefully the team can surround him with some better talent and give him a real chance to shine.
Kendre Miller (RB) - New Orleans Saints
I don’t know how well anyone expected Kendre Miller to perform, but he was the 4th RB taken in this draft. Alvin Kamara served a 3-game suspension to start the season but Miller missed the first two games himself. In his first and only game without Kamara, he ran 9 times for 43 yards and caught his only target for no gain. That would end up being his best rushing performance based on YPA. His only other game with more than 10 rushing yards was a 12-carry, 37-yard game where he also caught 4 targets for 53 yards. He ended the season with 194 yards from scrimmage, 0 TDs, and only 10 targets in 7 games. He never finished as a half-PPR RB3 or better. This was always going to be Kamara’s backfield when he returned but to see such little usage is discouraging. Jamaal Williams was 2nd on the team in carries at 28 years old despite being mostly ineffective. New Orleans has disappointed offensively as a whole so perhaps another year could benefit Miller.
Quentin Johnston (WR) - Los Angeles Chargers
Many people were wary about Johnston heading into his rookie season. Our resident dynasty expert Matt Ward was especially skeptical of his profile compared to where he got drafted. Nobody can be perfect, though, and QJ could still defy the odds and show signs of success. That didn’t happen this season though.
Despite playing most of the season with one of the best QBs in the league - one able to make incredibly accurate throws in traffic - Johnston just couldn’t find success. Fine, he’s a rookie playing alongside Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler. Those are great veterans with a track record and most players would find it hard to compete from the start. Williams only played 3 games before getting hurt, Allen missed 3 games, and Ekeler saw 66 targets in 13 games, down from 127 in 17 games the year before. In fact, Ekeler saw his fewest targets per game since 2018. Josh Palmer only played 9 games. With the competition literally failing to exist, he still couldn’t do better than a single WR26 finish. He started to find some success in the latter half of the year and was without Herbert for a chunk of that, so maybe he was primed for a bigger 2nd half boom that just didn’t get a chance to pan out. I’m not going to be tripping over myself to give him another shot next year, though.
Remedial Rookies (Half-PPR PPG)
QB Tyson Bagent: 11.9 Points - QB34
QB Will Levis: 11.8 Points - QB35
QB Aidan O’Connell: 11.5 Points - QB37
QB Bryce Young: 10.8 Points - QB38
QB Tommy Devito: 10.7 Points - QB40
RB Keaton Mitchell: 9.3 Points - RB37
RB Tyjae Spears: 6.7 Points - RB46
RB Roschon Johnson: 5.9 Points - RB52
RB Jaleel McLaughlin: 5.6 Points - RB56
RB Zach Charbonnet: 5.5 Points - RB57
RB Zamir White: 4.1 Points - RB69
WR Josh Downs: 7.3 Points - WR54
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 7.2 Points - WR55
WR Quentin Johnston: 4.5 Points - WR85
TE Dalton Kincaid: 6.8 Points - TE16
TE Luke Musgrave: 5.7 Points - TE22
TE Tucker Kraft: 4.5 Points - TE31
TE Michael Mayer: 4.5 Points - TE31
Heating Up
Jayden Reed (WR) - Green Bay Packers
Christian Watson finished his 2022 rookie campaign with 690 scrimmage yards and nine total TDs. His best stretch from Weeks 10 to 13 included four WR1 games, 8 total TDs, and an average of about 23 half-PPR fantasy points per game. Jayden Reed is another 2nd rounder who still has a game to play and - so far - has 800 scrimmage yards and 10 total TDs as a rookie. Packers fans have been begging for a 1st round WR for years but the team is finding diamonds in the rough. Let’s not forget that they’re getting impressive performances out of Bo Melton, Dontayvion Wicks, and Romeo Doubs. Reed just had his best performance ever in a big win to keep Green Bay’s playoff hopes alive. He may not have had an insane streak like Watson did last year but he’s able to blow up just as easily. He was probably your WR2/3 and gave you a WR4 overall performance.
Name to Watch:
WR Trey Palmer
Palmer isn’t having a spectacular rookie year by any measure but he’s a 6th rounder playing alongside Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. His 62 targets through 16 games is the most by a Buccaneers rookie WR since Mike Evans was drafted with the 7th overall pick in 2014. It’s also the 4th most in franchise history for a rookie. Baker Mayfield is throwing the 7th most passes so those 62 targets only translates into an 11.95% target share. That’s not a great sign but he just had his best game of the year, catching 4 of 5 targets for 84 TDs and a score. He could be a player worth watching as Tampa attempts to win their division and make noise in the playoffs.
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.