Super Wild Card Weekend produced several blowouts and more than a few unsuspecting upsets for several fanbases. With our top-seeded teams set to make their playoff debut, let’s take a look at the upcoming matchups for the Divisional Championships.
AFC - FIRST ROUND BYE
1 Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
AFC - Divisional Round
1 Baltimore Ravens (13-4) vs 4 Houston Texans (10-7)
2 Buffalo Bills (11-6) vs 3 Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
NFC - FIRST ROUND BYE
1 San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
NFC - WILD CARD ROUND
1 San Francisco 49ers (12-5) vs 7 Green Bay Packers (9-8)
3 Detroit Lions (12-5) vs 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
GAME 1
1 Baltimore Ravens vs 4 Houston Texans (10-7)
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Betting Favorite: Ravens - 9.0 Points
Keys To Victory:
Baltimore Ravens
Don’t Be Afraid to Air it Out.
Capitalize on Stroud’s Playoff Inexperience.
Crowd the Texans' Backfield with Blitzes.
Houston Texans
Stuff the Run.
Win Turnover Battle. Give Stroud Extra Possessions.
Young Secondary Step Up. Lockdown Coverage.
Injury Reports:
Baltimore Ravens Injury Report
Matchup Breakdown:
The Ravens enter the contest as winners of six of their last seven games, dropping a meaningless Week 18 loss to the Steelers with their respective starters on the sidelines. The team rightfully earned their bye with a 13-4 record, besting 31 other teams for the best record in the NFL this season. Riding the wave of yet another MVP-worthy campaign from Lamar Jackson, the Ravens averaged 384.8 scrimmage yards (5th), 156.5 rushing yards (1st), and 28.4 points per game (4th) but ranked 21st overall in passing yards per game (213.8). Jackson and company rarely had to play from behind as the Ravens' defense continuously and consistently shut down opposing offenses to the tune of 16.5 points per game (1st). The top-ranked defensive unit concedes just 328.1 scrimmage yards (9th), 191.9 passing yards (6th), and 109.4 rushing yards (14th) to bolster their league-leading points allowed averages. They have allowed just one team to score more than 20 points in their last six outings, holding back high-powered offenses like the 49ers and the Dolphins to 19 points apiece in Week 16 and Week 17. The Ravens have hosted the Texans at home once this season, dating back to the opening week of the 2023/2024 campaign. The defense smothered Stroud with five sacks, allowing just nine points in the rookie's debut. There is no denying the progression and development of Stroud since his inaugural start but his playoff inexperience may prove to be costly if the Ravens defense can force the first-year signal caller into making mistakes in hostile territory.
The Texans were disrespected as 3.0-point underdogs at home against the Browns during Super Wild Card Weekend, proving all detractors foolish with a dominant and one-sided 45-15 beatdown. Stroud finished with a stellar stat line, completing 16/21 pass attempts for 274 yards and three touchdowns against the Browns' top-ranked defense. The box score does not show two turnover-worthy plays where would-be interceptions were dropped by the Browns' defensive backs – a cause of events that could have greatly changed the trajectory of the Texans' season. Stroud will have to be even more perfect against the Ravens' defense, limiting his mistakes to none against the NFL’s number-one-ranked team in turnovers and points allowed. The Texans offense has done well this season to play above expectations, putting up 366.2 scrimmage yards (10th), 245.5 passing yards (7th), and 22.2 points (12th) but has struggled to extend drives at times, ranking 19th in 3rd-down conversion rating (37.9%) and 22nd in rushing yards (96.9) per game. Their defense has held strong against the run, allowing just 96.6 yards (6th) on average but may struggle against the Ravens' heavy RPO schemes as they give up 234.1 passing yards (23rd) and 20.8 points (11th) to their opponents. The Texans will need to up their offensive conversion rate on 3rd down while simultaneously limiting the Ravens to short drives in an attempt to halt Lamar Jackson’s incredible MVP campaign.
GAME 2
1 San Francisco 49ers (12-5) vs 7 Green Bay Packers (9-8)
Over/Under: 50.5Points
Betting Favorite: 49ers - 9.5 Points
Keys To Victory:
San Francisco 49ers
MVP McCaffrey. Get Your Stud Rolling.
Make Love Hurt. Pressure Packers QB.
Press Coverage. Put Young Packers WR in Uncomfortable Positions.
Green Bay Packers
Love Connection: Young QB Must Maintain Hot Streak
Keep the Offense Unpredictable. Don’t Be Afraid To Empty the Arsonal.
Limit Yards After Catch. Make Purdy Beat Defense Downfield.
Injury Reports:
San Francisco 49ers Injury Report
Green Bay Packers Injury Report
Matchup Breakdown:
The 49ers make their 2023/2024 playoff debut at home after posting a 12-5 record as the number-one-seeded team in the NFC. The team has gone 3-2 in their last five games after winning six straight in the middle portions of the season. Christian McCaffrey positioned himself in the MVP narrative with a stellar season that saw the 49ers star out up 1459 rushing yards, 564 receiving yards, and 21 total touchdowns (14 rushing/7 receiving). The 49ers also boast a pair of 1000-yard pass catchers in their stable with Brandon Aiyuk (75 receptions/1342 receiving yards/7 touchdowns) and George Kittle (65 receptions, 1020 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns) setting the tone with career years. Deebo Samuel (60 receptions, 892 yards, 7 touchdowns) would have likely crossed the 1000-yard threshold as well had he not missed two games with a hamstring injury. The 49ers all-star offense was orchestrated by a stunning season from Brock Purdy that saw the former last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft throw for 4280 yards and 31 touchdowns with only 11 interceptions. As a team the 49ers offense averaged a whopping 409.8 scrimmage yards (2nd), 257.9 passing yards (4th), 140.5 rushing yards (3rd), and 28.9 points (3rd) per game. Their defense middled out slightly in the passing department, allowing 214.2 passing yards (14th) per contest but maintained elite efficiency elsewhere, giving up just 322.0 scrimmage yards (7th), 89.7 rushing yards (3rd), and 17.5 points (3rd) to their opposition. The 49ers are rightful home favorites with their 9.5-point spread representing the largest gap between opponents during the Divisional Championship round. As long as the team plays up to par, they should cruise their way to another NFC Championship appearance.
The Packers are intent on making that proposed trip a walk through treacherous territory as the team is riding a red-hot four-game winning streak into the matchup. Last week, Jordan Love executed a flawless game plan against an unsuspecting Cowboys defense, completing 16/21 pass attempts for 272 yards and three touchdowns while veteran running back Aaron Jones feasted to a meal of 118 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Romeo Doubs tore the Cowboys' secondary open, catching all six of his targets for 151 yards and one touchdown while rookies Luke Musgrave and Dontayvion Wicks both found the back of the end zone. Creative play-calling constantly kept the Cowboys defense out of rhythm, a philosophy that will need to be implemented fully against a stout 49ers defense. The Packers' offense has averaged respectable, yet middling totals during their roller-coaster season, tallying 359.7 scrimmage yards (12th), 233.5 passing yards (12th), 112.1 rushing yards (15th), and 22.5 points (12th) per game. One of Love’s greatest strengths has been his ability to extend drives, helping the offense to convert on 47.1% of third-down attempts (5th). The defense has held their own against the pass, conceding 206.8 passing yards (9th) and 20.6 offensive points (10th) to their opponents but offers the league’s best running back an easy avenue for production as the Packers allow 128.3 rushing yards (28th) to their opponents. The defensive front will need to step up and play well above their suggested potential if the Packers hope to keep McCaffrey and the 49ers from advancing to the Conference Championship.
GAME 3
3 Detroit Lions (12-5) vs 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Betting Favorite: Lions - 6.5 Points
Keys To Victory:
Detroit Lions
Thunder and Lightning. Get Montgomery and Gibbs Rolling Early.
Secondary Needs to Step Up. Can’t Let Evans and Godwin Roam Free.
Bully the Backfield: Constant QB Pressure, Stuff the Run.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Playmaker Baker. Let Your QB Duel it Out.
Hot Pocket. Protect Your QB at All Costs.
Stuff St. Brown. Impress with Press Coverage.
No Penalties in Pass Game.
Injury Reports:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Injury Report
Matchup Breakdown:
The Lions will once again have the benefit of controlling home-field advantage in front of their inspired fanbase of once-disenfranchised hopefuls. A game of castaways, so to speak, as Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield face off after being seen as disposable assets by their previous franchise. Goff helped to support an elite Lions offense that averaged 406.9 scrimmage yards (3rd), 258.9 passing yards (2nd), 135.9 rushing yards (5th), and 27.1 points (5th) per game this season while he himself threw for 4575 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while supporting four different players with 10-plus touchdowns (LaPorta, Gibbs, Montgomery, St. Brown). The Lions' defense, however, has been the glaring weakness for their promising campaign as they allow 357.1 scrimmage yards (20th), 247.4 passing yards (27th), and 23.2 points (23rd) to opposing offenses. Their strength lies within a stellar run defense that concedes a mere 88.8 rushing yards (2nd) per game. Unfortunately, the Buccaneers' success as an offense does not require relying on an elite run game to extend drives, creating an interesting matchup of averages between the two teams.
The Buccaneers rank dead last in rushing yards per game, averaging a mere 88.8 yards per contest. The team has found success on the career resurgence of Baker Mayfield who posted 4044 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and only 10 interceptions, laying claim to a career-high 94.6 quarterback rating. The offense boasts two 1000-yard receivers in Chris Godwin (83 receptions/1024 yards/2 touchdowns) and future Hall of Famer Mike Evans (79 receptions, 1255 yards, 13 touchdowns), and a running back in Rachaad White that surpassed 1500 scrimmage yards (990 rushing yards, 549 receiving yards). Mayfield has proven to be a competent playmaker and has an opportunity to expose a susceptible Lions pass defense, much as he did a bottom-feeding Eagles secondary. The difficulty will be in keeping up with the Lions offense should the Buccaneers' defense regress to their season-long averages of allowing 364.0 scrimmage yards (23rd), and 248.9 passing yards (29th), per game.
GAME 4
2 Buffalo Bills (11-6) vs 3 Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Betting Favorite: Bills - 3.0 Points
Keys To Victory:
Buffalo Bills
No Costly Mistakes. Cannot Give Mahomes Extra Possessions.
Take Advantage of Home Field. Come out Swinging and Get the Lead Early.
Short & Intermediate Passes. Easy Looks.
Kansas City Chiefs
Keep the Run Game Rolling. Control the Clock.
Get Allen Out of Rhythm. Force Turnovers.
Spy Game. Keep Eyes on Allen as a Rusher.
Injury Reports:
Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report
Matchup Breakdown:
The Bills and Chiefs have been intertwined in a heated rivalry for several seasons as Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have shared an elite pantheon of greatness throughout their careers with the latter having the upper hand. The overall record between the two teams would suggest otherwise, however, as the Bills and Chiefs are locked in a 3-3 tie since Allen and Mahomes have dawned the respective franchises jerseys. Things appear slightly different entering this matchup as the Bills host the traveling Chiefs at home on the back of a six-game win streak that started with a 20-17 victory over the rivals in question in Week 14. Their offense has produced at a top-tier level all season, increasing their averages post-Dorsey firing to a tune of 383.4 scrimmage yards (6th), 244.4 passing yards (8th), 130.1 rushing yards 97th) and 26.5 points (6th) per game. The Bills are also the number one ranked team in the NFL at extending drives, leading the league with a 3rd-down conversion rating of 49.8%. The Bills defense has remained stout despite several key injuries, conceding 326.8 scrimmage yards (8th), 196.6 passing yards (7th), 110.6 rushing yards (15th) and 18.3 points (4th) per game to opposing offenses. The Chiefs offense has regressed in comparison to their historic heights of years past but remains a difficult test for the Bills, even on home turf. The defense will need to play mistake-free football, limiting turnovers and shortening drives for Mahomes in order to allow Allen and company to control the pace.
The Chiefs' offensive regression has come with an 11-6 record this season while averaging 362.8 scrimmage yards (11th), 246.4 passing yards (6th), 104.9 rushing yards (19th) and 21.8 points (15th) per game. Their defense has played the position of hero all season, standing tall as a top-ranked unit that allows just 310.4 scrimmage yards (3rd), 176.5 passing yards (4th), 113.2 rushing yards (16th), and 17.3 points (2nd) to their opponents. The unexpected regression of Travis Kelce coupled with the unsuspecting breakouts of Isaih Pacheco and Rashee Rice have completely altered the identity of a once unstoppable Chiefs offense. Although promising young weapons, Rice and Pacheco may not have enough firing power to overcome a streaking Bills squad that has their eyes locked on a Super Bowl appearance.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.