BRoto Bets went 3-1 and gained 1.65 units.
Devin Singletary’s rushing prop hit 63.5 by the time my picks went live so I’m calling that an unfortunate loss by half a yard. It’s a shame but it wouldn’t be right to call an old line a win. The past two weeks have been good to us to let’s keep it going into the playoffs.
2023 Total: 42-38-2, -3.995u
Teasers:
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) O/U: 43.5
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (-7) O/U: 50.5
Themi’s Teaser: Buccaneers +9, Cowboys -1
(6-point, 2-team teaser, -120)
For what it’s worth, I do think the Eagles can turn things around in the playoffs and save total embarrassment. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are an exploitable team that has often face planted. Recent performances, however, indicate that these two teams may be much closer than they were at the beginning of the season. The Eagles have 3 wins by more than a score this year and one was a 25-11 win over the Bucs in Tampa back in Week 3. Philadelphia is on a 1-5 skid right now that could have easily been 0-6 if they hadn’t barely beat the Giants on Christmas thanks to a missed DPI. Expect the Eagles to win but for the Bucs to keep it close.
The Packers are a red hot team with a ton of youth entering the playoffs when most had written them off. They were seldom truly out of contention but expectations for Jordan Love were mixed and he didn’t have the greatest first half of the season. Things have changed pretty quickly, including the long awaited return of the Aaron Jones we know and love. He took a while to heat up this year but he’s back. Green Bay won’t be at home but they face a historic opponent and don’t have the same lofty expectations as them this year. Dak Prescott was an MVP frontrunner at one point and leads a Cowboys team that is equally impressive on both sides of the ball. They have had no issues putting away the mid tier of opponents that they face, but have struggled as they began to deal with playoff teams late in the season. The Packers have a small advantage in being able to throw caution to wind and let Jordan Love get some playoff experience without anyone throwing too much shade, but they’re still an incomplete team that, while heating up, can be beat down on any given week. Dallas ranks far too highly for me to bet against them but 7.5 is a bit much. Teasing them down works.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills (-9.5) O/U: 40
Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans (+2) O/U: 44.5
Themi’s Teaser: Bills -2.5, Texans +9
(7-point, 2-team teaser, -140)
Did you know that the Steelers are 8th in weighted DVOA? This defense has overcome a lot of injuries to keep the team relevant, and the offense has finally been able to do its part. 8 of their 10 wins have come against teams over .500 (Five of which are against playoff teams), and they’ve handed the 13-4 Ravens their two biggest losses of the year. Yet, they’re consistently ranked as a bottom-3 playoff team. That’s probably for good reason. Pittsburgh is on a hot streak but they are not as good as they let on and most people realize that. TJ Watt’s loss hurts this team tremendously. Drawing the Bills is not a death sentence but things can get out of hand quickly. Buffalo is on a tear, winning five straight since losing to the Eagles. They’ve taken down the Cowboys, Dolphins, and Chiefs and rank 3rd in weighted DVOA. Like the Steelers, they too have dealt with massive injuries on defense but they have had time to regroup and change how they do things enough to win against great teams. Josh Allen is a mistake-prone QB and he could play himself into a first round exit against a defense that still has great talent, but the odds say Buffalo wins this and they could do it in a variety of ways. Tease this down to a FG. If this game goes back to 10, just avoid the teaser entirely.
The last time these teams met, C.J. Stroud was hurt. Davis Mills and Case Keenum were in at QB for Houston, and while Mills ended up posting a respectable statline, the game ended in a 36-22 road victory for Cleveland. Things could be different this time around with the OROY frontrunner set to start. Cleveland looks great at full strength but there are a slew of injuries affecting both teams. For the most part, there aren’t that many serious concerns for key players anymore but Grant Delpit has been ruled out for Cleveland. Denzel Ward suffered a knee injury in practice on Thursday that puts his availability in question. Houston’s pass defense already ranks 23rd in DVOA - 3rd lowest amongst playoff teams and lowest in the AFC. Houston is allowing the 5th highest DVOA to WR1s and they’re below-average against TEs. Amari Cooper and David Njoku have been looking unstoppable when healthy and both should suit up this week. Derek Stingley has had a great sophomore season and the secondary as a whole usually looks quite good but clearly the stats disagree. Naturally, the biggest issue for Cleveland is offense. They rank 28th while the Texans are 14th with a rookie QB and multiple weeks without him. Joe Flacco has been prone to turnovers and threw two interceptions in his last meeting with the Texans. Stroud seems to struggle against great pass defenses like the Ravens and Jets and could be similarly flustered. However, Houston is having a good season, ranking 12th in total DVOA and 18th in weighted DVOA. Cleveland ranks 8th and 13th, respectively. Keeping the game within a score is entirely in play.
Straight:
Browns -2 (-120)
Dalton Schultz Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
The teaser section covers my thoughts on the Browns game. Despite playing on the road with offensive concerns, they’re still good enough to play strong defense against a rookie and pull out a victory with a veteran and SB champion at the helm. A win by a FG to a TD hits both this bet and the teaser. A road win by the slight underdogs wouldn’t shock me but I’ll take the better overall team here.
The last time he faced the Browns, Schultz was targeted 11 times and gained 61 yards in the loss with backup QBs in. What’s noteworthy is that Nico Collins only played 47% of snaps in his return from injury. He’ll suit up for this contest with few concerns, and both Noah Brown and Robert Woods should also be healthy enough to play. Cleveland still ranks as one of the best defenses against the TE and Schultz is about as inconsistent as they come. TE groups are only averaging 31.4 yards per game against the Browns, the lowest mark in the league. With a slightly healthier receiver group, bet on the under here.
Mason Rudolph Over 154.5 Passing Yards (-110)
The Bills have allowed a QB to throw for at least 155 yards in nearly all of their games. Zach Wilson (twice) and Dak Prescott were the only ones who failed to do so. That may make you weary of trusting Rudolph to get it done when it seems like this defense is finally finding its footing, but I have faith. Rudolph is averaging just over 238 passing yards per game in his 3 starts. His lowest was a 152 yard game against a Ravens defense still playing most of their defensive starters in a terrible rain game. Buffalo ranks 9th against the pass in DVOA and 7th in EPA but they do seem to give up large yardage totals. They seem to be finding their footing but this is a low mark. He will get some terrible weather again this weekend, and the conditions naturally favor a run-heavy approach which the Steelers displayed in their win over the Ravens. Still, this is just too low of a line to pass up on.
Rashee Rice Anytime TD (0.5u) (+150)
Rice leads the Chiefs in both receiving TDs and red zone targets. It’s clearly the Rice and Kelce show in KC. His 7 TDs are nothing incredible but he’s a rookie emerging as a WR1. Kader Kohou has had trouble stopping receivers in the slot. Per PFF, he has allowed 7 TDs, 10.8 yards per reception, and a passer rating of 133.4. Miami’s defense still boasts some stars but they’re getting hit by the injury bug at the wrong time. Expect the Chiefs to move the ball fairly well, giving Rice ample opportunity to get into the end zone with a plus matchup.
Mike Evans Anytime TD (0.5u) (+105)
Evans has scored in 11 games this year and has 13 TDs overall. He caught one touchdown ball in the loss over the Eagles last week and should have another good game against their soft secondary. Philly has allowed 27 TDs to WRs, 2nd highest in the league. Their pass defense ranks 30th in DVOA and 24th in EPA. Darius Slay’s possible return won’t help, but he is beatable. Chris Godwin has been gaining steam recently, and is actually slightly ahead in red zone targets, but there’s no reason both can’t eat. Evans should continue to operate as a great option who is always in play to score.
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by Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.