Boto Bets went 0-4 and lost 3.5 units last week. Isaiah Pacheco got a big negative catch late in the game to put him just under his receiving prop and game-script allowed him to rack up 24 carries and beat his rushing prop by three.
Before we dive into the picks, here’s a breakdown by bet type for the 2023-2024 season before we get into our championship game picks:
2023 Total: 54-48-2, -3.055u
Moneylines: 6-3, +1.78u
Spreads: 18-12-2, +4.34u
Point Totals: 0-2, -2.00u
Team Totals: 4-2, +1.33u
Player Props: 8-13, -5.19u
Teasers: 18-16, -2.72u (49-19/72.06% of individual legs hit)
It was a particularly bad year for teasers, especially favorites. I’ve heard many others complain about that too but I believe I also took too many 9/9.5 point favorites which required paying up for and may have hurt me overall. In my very limited spread betting I was actually profitable despite taking lines closer to closing (not a good strategy in the long-term), but player props destroyed me. Breaking things down like this gives me an opportunity to evaluate my shortcomings and what I need to work on, and I think even a recreational bettor should take the time to do this at the end of a league season.
Straight:
49ers -2 (-110)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes. I did it last week with the Ravens too, expecting a historically successful team to blow them out or at least outright win. KC’s defense did a tremendous job, as did Baltimore’s, but the MVP just couldn’t get them down the field enough to eke it out. I’ve watched this Todd Monken offense enough to see it fail spectacularly and that game was no exception. I don’t foresee the same thing happening to San Francisco, at least in the same way.
While Baltimore was first in DVOA, San Francisco was second. Their offense is the best in the NFL and their defense is 4th. KC ranks 8th and 7th, respectively. This is clearly the best defense that we’ve seen from them in the Mahomes era. I also understand that we do need to begin accounting for Mahomes’ postseason magic in models but I am not smart enough to quantify that. He has the same clutch gene that Brady had, and he really turns it up in these moments even when things seem to be going horribly wrong. Yet, I am not going to go against the numbers that I trusted thus far. Joe Thuney is also out, but that’s baked into the spread. Jerick McKinnon may return and play a big role as a pass-blocker and receiving back but that’s not quite enough for me to move the needle. I like the better team by less than a FG.
Deebo Samuel to Win SB MVP (+2600) (FanDuel) (0.25u)
It’s hard to imagine a 49ers win that doesn’t include at least one score or big play from either Christian McCaffrey or Deebo Samuel. Don’t get me wrong, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are phenomenal and could have massive games that rival Deebo. Jauan Jennings could be a sneaky offensive hero as well. But if you’re going to bet anyone outside of the QBs and CMC, Deebo is the obvious next best pick. Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Isiah Pacheco are good options for the offensive side as well, but as a 49ers bettor it does make sense to target a 49ers player. There may be some hedge value in pairing SF with someone like Mahomes to win MVP but I don’t have data that shows that to be a good strategy. Deebo has been able to produce as both a receiver and rusher and was critical in helping the team make the SB. Against a tough Lions run defense, he only gained 7 yards on three carries but he caught 8 of 9 targets for 89 yards after returning from injury. KC has a great pass defense that has been able to stifle great receivers, allowing the 5th lowest DVOA to team WR1s. Creating separation for his receivers is quite a big part of Shanahan’s offense so trying to fight physically for the ball may be avoidable in many instances. Being able to avoid L’Jarius Sneed and especially Trent McDuffie for a chunk of the game should help too. Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson have been good but they’re not elite in coverage. This isn’t the most analytical pick out there but I do view him as one of the best longshots.
Guest Pick: Justin Watson Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110) (FanDuel) (From Broto writer Nick @beaulieu_nick)
Justin Watson has been a big reception type of player who rarely gets more than a few targets and receptions per game, but it may only take one to eclipse this mark. Run the Sims grades this as a good bet at this price. He’s averaging 15.3 yards before the catch per reception and an aDOT of 17.5. Both marks are 1st in the league amongst players with at least 50 targets, per Pro Football Reference.
Prop Bets:
This section is purely for entertainment. None of these picks are backed by any sort of actual math or analysis. Many of these bets are not widely available in regulated US markets but you may have them in your area.
Coin Flip: Heads (EVEN) (Draftkings or Bet365)
If you’re going to bet on a literal coin flip just to feel something, at least give yourself the best odds possible. Draftkings and Bet365 are two of the more widely available books that offer this at +100/even money, meaning that you have an expected value of 0. I know the saying that “tails never fails” but it does fail pretty often, about 50% of the time! There’s no reason for me to go one way or the other. I just think it’s heads.
Gatorade Color: Yellow/Green (+300)
Many have attempted to predict the gatorade color poured on the winning HC for years. I have heard claims that it’s always the worst flavor, since that’s what’s left over after the game. Others use team jersey/logo color to predict it, and others have opted to flat out ask players and coaches what color it would be. I have no conspiracy theories or other statistics to claim that this is a good pick. I think they’re just weird colors. Maybe it’ll be green to help promote the Nickelodeon stream of the game so that it looks like slime?
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by Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.