The 2023 fantasy season is complete. The Dynasty market, however, is never ceasing.
Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all in, the deck is stacked in your favor. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.” Today, we look at some intriguing assets in Dynasty, drawing unbiased values from Sleeper ADP, Dynasty League Football, and KeepTradeCut in an attempt to exploit certain market discrepancies. As always, we will be viewing these players and values through a Superflex lens.
WEEK 18 DYNASTY MARKET REPORT
NOTABLE MARKET RISERS:
CeeDee Lamb (WR) & Dak Prescott (QB) - Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys’ super stack yielded a litany of fantasy championships for their managers, closing out the season in Week 17 with a sensational marriage of stunning showings between the duo. CeeDee Lamb set career-best numbers with 13 receptions on 17 targets for 227 yards and one touchdown. Dak Prescott connected with Lamb on 50.0% of his total completions (26) while throwing for 345 yards and two touchdowns. With one game remaining, Lamb has already topped his previous bests with 122 receptions, 168 targets, 1651 receiving yards, and 12 total touchdowns. Prescott enters the final week of the season with 4237 yards, 34 total touchdowns, and just 8 interceptions under his belt. The star signal-caller has rightfully found himself in the Dynasty QB1 discussion whereas Lamb has risen to a shared tier alongside Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase as the only wide receivers valued inside of the top-12 overall assets in Superflex leagues.
C.J. Stroud (QB) - Houston Texans
If you were under the impression that C.J. Stroud's end-of-season production (or lack thereof) would affect his Dynasty stock, you were mistaken. Stroud's historic 2023 rookie campaign has insulated the value of the Texans’ new franchise quarterback beyond measurable doubt. Despite his injury status and low-level final performance, the 2nd overall pick from the 2023 NFL draft finishes the season with an incredible Dynasty consensus ranking as the QB4/4th Player overall. Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes are the only players in Dynasty Superflex leagues that hold more value than the star rookie. Stroud has justifiably turned himself into a cornerstone asset with a sky-high range of outcomes.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) - Detroit Lions
There is a reasonable argument to be made for a four-headed tier of cornerstone assets with intrinsic value when analyzing the Dynasty RB1 discussion. Jahmyr Gibbs is firmly in that discussion with a consensus Dynasty ranking of RB3/16th player overall, behind only Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey with a one-spot difference separating the Lions rookie from Breece Hall as well. Gibbs can hang his hat on the added narrative of playing for a better offense than Hall and Robinson, performing ahead of those aforementioned players despite sharing a backfield with David Montgomery while also possessing future value insulation that an aging McCaffrey will never be rewarded. Gibbs’ future outlook beyond this season has the potential to reach astronomical heights as the dual-threat running back sits amongst the most analytically sound rookies in recent memory.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) - Detroit Lions
Only one non-quarterback finished with more than 20.0 PPR PPG in each of the three weeks that made up the fantasy football playoffs: Amon-Ra St. Brown. The king of consistency is seemingly always flying under the radar on the Dynasty market despite his youth and league-winning production. His most recent stretch awoke a sleeping giant of value insulation for the Lions’ top wideout as St. Brown now sits as the WR4/13th Player Overall behind only Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb while being ranked comfortably ahead of A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Tyreek Hill, Chris Olave and Puka Nacua.
Nico Collins (WR) - Houston Texans
Nico Collins has sparked some increasingly intriguing value debates after a stunning 2023 breakout campaign. Collins smashed through his proposed ceiling of outcomes after several disappointing campaigns to begin his career. With C.J. Stroud under center, the Texans’ big-bodied wideout was able to shed his middling labels with 71 receptions on 100 targets, 1102 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns in just 14 games played. The Dynasty market is hesitant to crown Collins’ value above several underperformers but his undeniable production has helped drive him into a tier of highly sought-after assets (WR20/50th Player Overall).
NOTABLE MARKET FALLERS:
Patrick Mahomes (QB) & Travis Kelce (TE) - Kansas City Chiefs
The decrease in consensus Dynasty value for Patrick Mahomes is not particularly drastic although it is noteworthy. Travis Kelce, on the other hand, has dipped below the top 5 players at the position and the top 50 players overall for the first time since 2015. The superstar gunslinger has fallen outside of the top 3 scorers during three of his last four seasons, dropping to QB7 overall with 18.4 PPG in 2023. Conversely, Josh Allen has finished as the QB1 Overall in three of his last four seasons, doing so again in 2023 while averaging 24.1 PPG. Although Mahomes' talent as a generational quarterback is undeniable, his propensity for scoring fantasy points is a tier below his aforementioned counterpart.
Trevor Lawrence (QB) - Jacksonville Jaguars
It is becoming exponentially more difficult to defend Trevor Lawrence's once-coveted generational label as the Jaguars quarterback continues to put up middling averages in comparison to his Dynasty QB1 peers. Lawrence averaged a pedestrian 17.2 PPG this season, finishing the year as the QB14 overall after topping out as the QB8 the year prior. The Dynasty market has rightfully reduced Lawrence's position amongst untouchable assets, placing the promising young signal caller just outside of the top 10 assets at the position (QB11/22nd Player Overall).
T.J. Hockenson (TE) - Minnesota Vikings
Although no fault of his own, T.J. Hockenson has seen a monumental decrease in overall Dynasty value after suffering a devastating season-ending knee injury that will require surgery. The nature of Hockenson's injury in the late stages of the season will undoubtedly affect the tight end's availability to begin the 2024 campaign. Even after a career-best year, the Dynasty Market would seemingly rather reset their builds with a healthier option this offseason.
Stefon Diggs (WR) - Buffalo Bills
No player had a bigger fall from grace than Stefon Diggs during the final weeks of the 2023 campaign. After averaging 21.6 PPG with seven WR1 outings during the first nine weeks, the Bills’ star receiver posted just one game inside the top 15 with six games outside of the top 45 and five games outside of the top 50 receivers all while averaging a mere 8.8 PPG from Week 9 onward. Soon to be 31 years old and in his 9th season, Diggs is no longer a player the Dynasty market is willing to hold with diamond hands.
DYNASTY WAIVER ADDS:
Bo Melton (WR) - Green Bay Packers
Bo Melton exploded in Week 17, catching six of his nine targets for 105 yards, all of which led the Packets offense in their respective categories. Melton likely does not possess stand-alone upside when the Packers offense is healthy but he is well worth a speculative add as the franchise looks intent on developing the talent they already have within their system.
Backup Quarterbacks
If the 2023 season taught us anything it was the need to constantly add and churn through backup quarterbacks. With major injuries all across the fantasy football landscape, the position of a backup quarterback gained incredible value relative to their production. Not every waiver wire add is made equal, so simply add as many as humanly possible for the next season with the upside of having a start-worthy asset should the worst-case scenario pop up.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.