SLEEPERS
QB: Jared Goff - Detroit Lions
Jared Goff is barely clinging onto his QB1 tier placement as of late, posting just one finish inside of the top 12 players at his position over the last six weeks. It is worth noting, however, that the last QB1 outing for Goff yielded a 41.2-point performance as the top-scoring player that week. The veteran gunslinger still has plenty of week-winning juice left in his gears but recent regression has caused a lopsided ECR of QB16 heading into the fantasy football championship. Goff will have one more chance to round out his impressive 2023 resume as the Lions (11-4) travel to face off against the Cowboys (10-5) in an NFC showdown between two powerhouses that could shake up playoff seeding. The Cowboys’ defense has held strong based on season-long averages but has shown some susceptible holes in recent games, allowing 25.3 PPG to opposing offenses during their last four games. The Cowboys currently rank 19th in Brot Fantasy's True Matchup Rank for quarterbacks, allowing 16.6 PPG to the position but have shown a recent decline in their overall ranking, dropping down four spots from their mid-season heights. Vegas betting lines favor the home team Cowboys by 5.5 points with a projected Over/Under scoring total of 52.5 combined points. A wild back-and-forth shootout between the two offensive juggernauts could easily ensue, allowing for a pass-heavy aerial attack. Goff sits second in True Throw Value amongst quarterbacks with at least 500 pass attempts this season, comfortably ahead of both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes for context. The Lions should be in an excellent position for Goff to match his efficiency with a high volume of pass attempts.
Matt Ward
RB: Ezekiel Elliott - Dallas Cowboys
Rhamondre Stevenson is out for the season and Ezekiel Elliott has enjoyed a big workload in his place. Including the 6-0 loss to the Chargers where Stevenson got hurt, Elliott is averaging 23 opportunities (rushes + targets) a week over the past four games. He hasn’t been incredibly efficient on the ground or through the air but he’s getting solid rushing gains and bolstering his fantasy performances with big reception numbers. He has yet to be targeted fewer than five times in a game in that span and has two receiving touchdowns as well. He has finished as the Half-PPR RB17, RB, RB33, and RB10 while starting. He now gets a Bills team that ranks as the 9th best RB matchup in True Matchup Rank. Last week, Austin Ekeler had one of his best rushing games of the season and added three catches for 21 yards through the air against the Bills with Easton Stick at quarterback and no Keenan Allen. It wasn’t a stellar fantasy performance but Zeke should get more consistent work through the air and the lion’s share of backfield snaps. Even without a touchdown, he can finish as an RB2 but he has some serious RB1 upside in a plus matchup.
Themi Michalakis
WR: Adam Thielen - Carolina Panthers
Adam Thielen earning the 3rd most targets of his career this season certainly wasn’t on my NFL Bingo card, yet here we are. Thielen has been a target hog this year as he averages 8.5 targets per game. It has been a weekly occurrence for him to see the lion’s share of the targets for the Panthers. He has 6+ targets in 13 of 15 games this season. That is very impressive and consistent usage for a 33-year-old veteran during his first year on a new squad.
Not only is he earning this strong usage but he’s turning it into quality fantasy numbers for managers. Thielen has finished as a top-24 wide receiver or better in seven games this season. Three of those weeks ended up being WR1-level performances. All of this has him settling in at 11.4 half PPR points per game, landing him as the 23rd WR on the year. This swan song of a season could all be capped off with a league-winning game against a weak secondary.
The Jaguars have been horrible against wide receivers. They are 4th in True Matchup Rank and are allowing 26% Points Over Average to the position. Thielen has proven week after week that he has earned the largest slice of the target share pie in Carolina and with a fantastic matchup looming ahead, he’s a strong start for fantasy managers in the championship round.
Boyd Armstrong
TE: Chigoziem Okonkwo - Tennessee Titans
Post-hype sleepers for the win. Chigoziem Okonkwo was wildly overdrafted as a top-12 tight end entering the 2023 season, only to vastly disappoint every manager and wind up as waiver-wire fodder in exchange for a weekly streaming option. After 16 weeks of the season, the unmitigated hype has ironically dissipated just as Okonkwo is becoming a legitimate starting option in fantasy. The Titans (5-10) are on the road to face the Texans (8-7) in an AFC South division matchup that favors the hometown team by 4.5 points with a projected Over/Under scoring total set at a middling 43.5 points. Both teams should get their rookie quarterbacks back in the lineup as Will Levis and C.J. Stroud are set to return from injuries. Okonkwo enters Week 17 fresh off a season-best showing that saw the uber-athletic tight end collect six of his seven targets for 63 yards and one touchdown (TE2/18.3 Points). The Texans offer Okonkwo yet another positive defensive matchup to take advantage of as they allow 11.5 PPG to tight ends, ranked 4th in Broto Fantasy's True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of 29.0% to the position. The Texans also give up a projected 12.0% increase in passing production to opposing quarterbacks, giving up 247.5 passing yards (26th) and 22.1 points (18th) per game. The game script could yield a surprisingly exciting shootout between two young quarterbacks looking to put their final stamps on the 2023 season.
Matt Ward
BUSTS
QB: Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa's 2023 season has mirrored a tale of two halves. The Dolphins starting g signal-caller produced five QB1 performances in the first eight weeks of the season. He has since had just two such outings since Week 8. Tagovailoa now draws an increasingly difficult defensive matchup entering the final week of the 2023 season as the Dolphins (11-4) face off against the AFC's top-ranked team in the Ravens (12-3). The Ravens defense is conceding a meager 193.9 passing yards (6th) and 16.3 PPG (1st) to opposing offenses this season. They allow just 14.2 fantasy PPG to the quarterback position, ranked 27th in Broto Fantasy's True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of negative (-)13.0%. Tagovailoa is averaging a modest 12.2 PPG over his last seven starts. A slight expected decrease in passing production could prove to be detrimental to those looking for one last QB1 performance from the Dolphins starter.
Matt Ward
RB: Aaron Jones - Green Bay Packers
It’s unlikely that Aaron Jones got you far in the playoffs, if you even made it there with him, but he finally produced last week. That was against a Panthers run defense that, while seemingly improving, is still one of the worst in the league. By purely rushing fantasy points allowed, they’re the 4th easiest in True Matchup Rank and dead last in DVOA. Jones gets a divisional rematch with the Vikings who only allowed 40 rushing yards on 13 combined running back carries the last time they met. Things have changed a lot since that game but one thing that hasn’t is that the Vikings are not easy to run on. They're the 7th hardest rushing matchup in True Matchup Rank and keep games close. They haven’t lost a game by more than a score all season. Jaren Hall will start at QB and the position will continue to be an issue with Kirk Cousins hurt but they’re good enough to fight for a win here. Jones is still sharing a backfield and won’t get a cakewalk rushing matchup again. He has just two Half-PPR RB1 games this year and only four performances as an RB2 or better. He’s just not reliable enough yet on a weekly basis to lean on in the fantasy championship or whatever other game you’re playing this week.
Themi Michalakis
WR: Drake London - Atlanta Falcons
Drake London has taken fantasy managers on a rollercoaster ride of a season. He has had a couple of WR1 games where he was able to showcase his upside but other than that the results have been either middling or flat out disappointing. Numerous (10) finishes outside the top 24 litter his game log and most weeks it has been a headache trying to decide whether to start him or not. This week the decision is perfectly clear - keep him on the bench.
The Falcons made another swap at the quarterback position last week, going from Desmond Ridder back to Taylor Heinicke for the second time this year. It didn’t change much as their passing attack was still anemic despite the favorable matchup. London had an abysmal game, which is something that seems to be a trend when Heinicke is at the helm of the offense. It’s a smaller sample size but here is a look at London’s splits with and without Heinicke at quarterback.
With Heinicke -
Averages 5 targets, 3.6 receptions, 43 receiving yards, and 6.1 half-PPR points per game. Zero total touchdowns.
WR49, WR51, and WR66 weekly finishes.
Without Heinicke -
Averages 7 targets, 4.5 receptions, 61 receiving yards, and 9.7 half PPR points per game. Two total touchdowns.
Seven top 36 or better weekly finishes with two of them being weekly WR1 performances.
Those splits are startling. In games with Heinicke throwing him the ball, he has been rendered useless and unstartable in fantasy. Stack a surprisingly fierce defensive matchup on top of that and Drake London is on the no-fly list for finals week.
The Chicago secondary has been clamping opposing receivers and limiting their production. Right now the Bears are 26th in True Matchup Rank and are allowing negative -9% Points over Average to the position. Facing one of the ten toughest matchups during the championship week is a hard pill to swallow for any Drake London managers who were able to squeak their way into a finals appearance. Keep him out of your starting lineups but make sure to send him a ring after winning your championship.
Boyd Armstrong
TE: Evan Engram - Jacksonville Jaguars
In an attempt to avoid the rhetoric of repetition, much of the reasoning to fade Evan Engram in Week 17 is explained via the recent injury news surrounding Trevor Lawrence. Echoing the statements attached to Lawrence's unfortunate injury designation that will keep him sidelined for Week 17, Engram has an extremely difficult defensive assignment on tap as the Panthers have consistently shut down opposing tight ends this season. They are allowing a mere 7.3 PPG to the position, ranked 29th in Broto Fantasy's True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of negative (-)26.0%. Engram has been a steady producer of week-winning scoring for his fantasy managers, posting five top-10 finishes in his last six starts. The overlooked narrative is the fact that all five of those aforementioned finishes came against defenses ranked in the bottom 10 in True Matchup Rank for tight ends. The only game in which Engram did not finish inside the top 10 scorers at his position in the past six weeks came against the Ravens, who much like the Panthers, rank amongst the toughest defensive matchups for tight ends. It will be difficult to justify benching the TE5 overall but finding a justifiable pivot may be the best option available if you hope to take home the hardware.
Matt Ward
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.