NFL Playoff Preview: Conference Championships

Only one game stands between the four remaining Super Bowl hopefuls and their bid at eternal glory. Before we break down the upcoming Conference Championship matchups, let’s recap the brackets that brought us here.

AFC - FIRST ROUND BYE

1 Baltimore Ravens (13-4)

NFC - FIRST ROUND BYE

1 San Francisco 49ers (12-5)

AFC - WILD CARD ROUND

2 Buffalo Bills (11-6) vs 7 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

3 Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) vs 6 Miami Dolphins (11-6)

4 Houston Texans (10-7) vs 5 Cleveland Browns (11-6)

NFC - WILD CARD ROUND

2 Dallas Cowboys (12-5) vs 7 Green Bay Packers (9-8)

3 Detroit Lions (12-5) vs 6 Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) vs 5 Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

AFC - DIVISIONAL ROUND

1 Baltimore Ravens (13-4) vs 4 Houston Texans (10-7)

2 Buffalo Bills (11-6) vs 3 Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)

NFC - DIVISIONAL ROUND

1 San Francisco 49ers (12-5) vs 7 Green Bay Packers (9-8)

3 Detroit Lions (12-5) vs 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

1 Baltimore Ravens (13-4) vs 3 Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)

1 San Francisco 49ers (12-5) vs 3 Detroit Lions (12-5)

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Over/Under: 44.5 Points

Betting Favorite: Ravens - 4.0 Points

Keys To Victory:

Baltimore Ravens

• Run The Damn Ball

• Come Out Swinging. Establish Early Lead.

• Disguise the Blitz. Keep Mahomes Throwing Short.

• Smother Pacheco. Keep Chiefs on Short Drives.

• Defense Wins Championships. 

Kansas City Chiefs

• Have to Take the Top off the Defense. Find a Way to Beat Ravens Deep.

• Perfect Pockets. Keep Ravens Defenders Out of the Backfield.

• Keep Leaning on Defense. No Easy Yards.

• Control the Clock. Keep the Ball out of Lamar’s Hands.

• Create after Catch. Make Mahomes’ Life Easy.

Injury Reports:

Baltimore Ravens Injury Report

Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report

Matchup Breakdown:

Lamar Jackson has not lost a game since Week 10 of the season, riding a seven-start/seven-win streak into the AFC Championship. The Ravens are fresh off a 34-10 bludgeoning of the Texans where they posted 381.0 scrimmage yards, and 229.0 rushing yards while smothering C.J. Stroud and the Texans with just 213.0 scrimmage yards, 175.0 passing yards, and an eye-popping 38.0 rushing yards. The Ravens have upheld a league-leading rushing offense with a league-leading scoring defense, controlling the clock, the score, and the outcome of the game on nearly every occasion this season. They led the league in team rush attempts (541) and net rushing yards (2661) while allowing just 3117 passing yards and 1860 rushing yards to their opponents this season. Jackson’s MVP-caliber play has maintained well through the latter portions of the campaign, a wall that the Ravens quarterback had failed to climb due to injury in years past. The classic cliche of “firing on all cylinders” falls worlds shy when attempting to exemplify the elite heights the Ravens franchise has reached this season in comparison to their peers. Holding home-field advantage once again should help Jackson and company find comfort early on but their upcoming opponent has shown time and time again to thrive in disarray while playing from behind, creating an interesting matchup between the NFL’s undisputed top team and a regressing opponent led by the most talented gunslinger in league history.

The Chiefs' run of league-dominating play has seemingly dropped off, leaving them a tier below their upcoming opponents on paper. With that said, housing the great equalizer that is Patrick Mahomes’ throwing arm makes all analytics merely a suggestion of supposed averages rather than a potential peek into the game score. The Chiefs are 6-4 in their last 10 games, dropping their record to a disappointing 11-6 merely one year removed from their Super Bowl title. Travis Kelce has undeniably begun to show his age coupled with the wear and tear of his insane usage over the past few seasons, declining to an uncharacteristic, yet still respectable, 93 catches for 984 yards and just five touchdowns while rookie Rashee Rice usurped the veteran’s usage late in the season, finishing with 79 receptions for 938 yards and seven touchdowns. The welcomed breakout of Rice alongside the explosive production of Isaih Pacheco out of the backfield provides the Chiefs with a multitude of misfit weapons but it appears vastly apparent that the team is still finding their new identity sans an earth-shattering Kelce season. The true hero for the Chiefs this season has been the standout play of their defensive unit that ranked top-10 in both yards and points allowed to opponents. They enter the game as 4.0-point underdogs on the road and will likely need to rely heavily on said defense once again if they hope to stem the onslaught of the NFL’s MVP frontrunner and his cohort of destructive defenders.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Over/Under: 51.5 Points

Betting Favorite: 49ers - 7.0 Points

Keys To Victory:

San Francisco 49ers

• Mayhem in the Middle. Do Not Let Goff Throw Centerfield.

• Keep McCaffrey Moving. Let your MVP be the MVP.

• YAC-ity YAC. Don’t Look Back.

• Diminish Lions Pride. Win Turnover Battles.

• Purdy in the Pocket. Imperative to Slow down Hutchinson and Lions Pass Rush.

Detroit Lions

• Thunder and Lightning. Keep Montgomer and Gibbs Rolling.

• Everything in Rhythm. Keep Goff Upright and Release Quick.

• Trench Warfare. Win Every Battle at the Line of Scrimmage.

• Slot Mechanics. Get LaPorta and St. Brown Involved Early.

• Grab the Lead Early and Force an Offensive Shootout.

Injury Reports:

Detroit Lions Injury Report

San Francisco 49ers Injury Report

Matchup Breakdown:

The hometown 49ers enter the game as significant 7.0-point favorites after dispatching another NFC North Cinderella story as they toppled the Packers 24-21 in a game that felt much more one-sided than the final score indicates. The 49ers boast a stacked roster of All-Pro players and MVP candidates on both sides of the ball with Brock Purdy supporting three 1000-yard players (Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Kittle) while the defense houses arguably three of the best players at their position (Bosa, Warner, Ward) with a bevy of top-tier supporting candidates (Greenlaw, Hufanga, Gipson). The team ranked 2nd in scrimmage yards (398.4), 3rd in rushing yards (140.5), and 4th in passing yards (257.9) with 28.9 points (3rd) per game on offense while holding their opponents to just 17.5 points (3rd), 303.9 scrimmage yards (8th), 214.2 passing yards (12th) and 89.7 rushing yards (3rd) per game, representing what many will argue as the most well-rounded roster in the entire NFL. They enter the game as winners of eight of their last ten games, conceding a loss to the Ravens in Week 16 and a meaningless Week 18 loss to the Rams. The 49ers have earned the right to be heavy favorites at home and matchup perfectly against a Lions secondary that has struggled to stem yards after the catch all season. With that said, the palpable air of immortality the Lions bring to the stadium may be just enough magic to lift the underdogs over their vaunted opponents.

The Lions are riding a wave of three straight wins with their only loss since Week 14 coming against the Cowboys on a referee blunder in the final seconds of the game. Jared Goff has reestablished himself as a true franchise starter this season, throwing for 4575 yards, 30 touchdowns, and only 12 interceptions across 17 starts. Goff helped support four different 10-touchdown seasons from Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, marking just the second time in the Super Bowl era in which an offense has held four players with 10 touchdowns or more. The defense has admittedly struggled in the secondary but has been ferocious up front, largely in part due to the stellar play of Aiden Hutchinson and company. The Lions offense can go toe to toe with the 49ers, ranking 5th in points scored (27.1), 3rd in scrimmage yards (394.8), 2nd in passing yards (258.9) and 5th in rushing yards (135.9) per game. Unfortunately, their defense appears to be worlds behind their opposition, allowing 23.2 points (23rd), 336.2 scrimmage yards (19th), and 247.4 passing yards (27th) to rival offenses this season. They have held strong against opposing rushers, giving up just 88.8 rushing yards (2nd) but have not been consistent at creating pressure, forcing only 41 sacks this season (23rd). The adage that defense wins championships may ring true in this matchup if the Lions offense cannot force a high-scoring shootout.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward