Week 17 Stock Up and Stock Down

With Week 16 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three players increasing their stock and three players on the end-of-season decline heading into Week 17! Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!

STOCK UP

George Pickens (WR) - Pittsburgh Steelers

George Pickens' profile as a big-play maven has often led to some frustratingly inconsistent target totals while simultaneously producing unpredictable high-upside performances. Week 16 marked the best of said performances as Pickens exploded for 34.5 PPR Points with four catches on six targets for 195 yards and two touchdowns, including sensational 86-yard and 66-yard touchdown grabs. The second-year wideout has now seen five or more targets in six straight games, with some admittedly disparaging results while Mitch Trubisky was under center. The switch from Trubisky to Mason Rudolph, and the inevitable turn back to Kenny Pickett could help propel Pickens into a more reliable scoring asset as the Steelers offense has finally rid themselves of the dead weight of Matt Canada that held the ship down for so long. Pickens is currently averaging 12.6 PPR PPG as the WR28 Overall and could help propel managers to a championship in Week 17 as he draws a favorable matchup against a Seahawks secondary that allows 31.1 PPG to opposing wideouts, ranked 10th in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of 8.0%. I am not anticipating a repeat career-best outing from Pickens but his rising stock as a legitimate league-winner is undeniable at this juncture.

Amari Cooper (WR) - Cleveland Browns

Only two players in the history of the NFL have recorded 200(+) yard games with three different franchises: Hall Of Famer Terrell Owens and Amari Cooper. The talented veteran is fresh off an earth-shattering showing against the Texans in Week 16 that yielded 11 receptions on 15 targets for 265 yards and two touchdowns. He now owns the Browns franchise record for most receiving yards in a single game as well. Since Week 10 of the 2023 season, Cooper leads all receivers in the NFL with 633 receiving yards. The recent addition of Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback has helped open up the passing offense for Cooper and company. The carefree gunslinging mentality that Flacco has attached to his profile in the twilight of his career has turned the Browns into legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Cooper has a tough matchup against the Jets on deck in Week 17 but is an unstoppable WR1 play with sky-high upside despite the proposed difficulty of his upcoming coverage assignment.

Demarcus Robinson (WR) - Los Angeles Rams

Demarcus Robinson is flying under the radar as the Rams' polarizing duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua justifiably draw focus both on the field and in the media. While Kupp and Nacua battle for targets and headlines, Robinson has been consistently producing as the team’s best scoring threat from the wide receiver position. The journeyman wideout has found the end zone in four consecutive contests, finishing as the WR21 (Week 13 vs Browns), WR22 (Week 14 @ Ravens), WR26 (Week 15 vs Commanders), and WR15 (Week 16 vs Saints). He had not recorded more than 10.0% of the offensive snaps until Week 13. Since then, Robinson has averaged 16.0 PPR PPG over his last four outings while playing a career-high 91.3% of the offensive snaps during that stretch. Most recently, Robinson is coming off a 20.2-point outing against the Saints where he hauled in all six of his targets for 82 yards and a score, including a crucial first-down on an extended Stafford heave only to follow it up with what would be the game-deciding touchdown a few plays later. Heading into Week 17, Robinson and his fellow Rams travel to face off against a hapless Giants defense that concedes 229.7 passing yards and 35.4 PPG to opposing wideouts, ranked 5th in Broto Fantasy’s True Matchup Rank with a whopping Points Over Average of plus 20.0%. While defenses hyper-focus their game plans to contain Kupp and Nacua, Robinson gets to feast on weak coverage assignments in a high-functioning offense that needs to close out the tables with victories if they hope to keep their playoff hopes alive. The veteran speedster is certainly not your traditional league-winning asset but his high-upside scoring numbers are a welcomed addition for managers facing injuries or who are simply looking to round out their lineup in the final weeks.

STOCK DOWN

Stefon Diggs (WR) - Buffalo Bills 

Stefon Diggs’ small sample size of menial production has snowballed into a terrifying trend of costly averages and risk-laden lineup decisions. The star wideout is currently the WR8 overall, averaging 16.73 PPR PPG but has fallen off dramatically in the previous weeks, positing five finishes below WR45 (WR54, WR53, WR52, WR45, WR53) in the past six weeks with a WR15 outing sandwiched in between. The veteran’s recent decline has culminated in a useless 7.7 PPR PPG over the last three games despite several high-scoring matchups against the Chiefs (Week 14), Cowboys (Week 15), and Chargers (Week 16) on the docket. Although Diggs’ target percentages remain elite as the unquestioned top dog within the Bills offense, he has surpassed 50 receiving yards just once in his past six games while catching a laughably low 26 of his last 48 targets (54.1% Catch Percentage). The recent bottom-feeding floor of production that Diggs is operating on has come at the worst possible time for fantasy managers as the star wideout is inevitably costing you the shot at claiming league hardware. There is no justifiable avenue for benching a player of Diggs' caliber but expectations have certainly shifted from his early-season successes.

Alvin Kamara (RB) - New Orleans Saints

The Saints may have very well put the final nail in the coffin of their dying playoff hopes after a brutal Week 16 loss to the Rams. The most discouraging part of the box score was seeing Derek Carr put up a season-best outing as a passer with 319 yards, three touchdowns, and a 106.1 QB Rating while Alvin Kamara managed just 35 scrimmage yards (19 Rushing Yards/16 Receiving Yards) on 14 touches (9 Carries/5 Receptions). The game script was stacked against Kamara’s rushing totals as Carr and company attempted to play themselves out of a 30-7 hole late in the fourth quarter but the dual-threat running back’s lack of increased passing stats in a come-from-behind shootout is blatantly discouraging. The Saints star running back managed just 2.1 YPC and 2.6 YPR in Week 16, combining his already glaring per-touch inefficiencies with a low-volume opportunity share despite a seemingly excellent game script and defensive matchup. Heading into Week 17, the Saints face off against the Buccaneers, representing a difficult path for a bounce-back performance from Kamara as they allow just 5.6 PPG of passing production (26th/-21.0% Points Over Average) and 10.4 PPG of rushing production (27th/-17.0% Points Over Average) to opposing running backs this season. Kamara is always capable of a vintage league-winning outing against any matchup but his downward-trending stock does little to instill encouragement within his fantasy managers during the final week of the fantasy football season.

Jaylen Warren (RB) - Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren has been a consistent provider of flex-worthy scoring totals with the additional bonus of RB1 upside in the right matchup. Warren was moved into a “starting role” during the middle juncture of the 2023 season, usurping Najee Harris as the team’s official leading running back. Unfortunately, the time share that Warren has been exchanging with Harris has begun to dissipate into much less of a committee approach. Warren has not seen more than ten rushing attempts since Week 12, finishing as the RB41 (Week 12 @ Bengals), RB28 (Week 13 vs Cardinals), RB35 (Week 15 vs Patriots), RB20 (Week 15 @ Colts), and RB29 (Week 16 vs Bengals) after posting RB15 (Week 9 vs Titans), RB8 (Week 10 vs Packers) and RB2 (Week 11 @ Browns) from Week 9 through Week 11. Warren has not found the end zone since Week 11 and has not surpassed 70 scrimmage yards since that point either. His target totals have been consistently encouraging, with the change-of-pace back earning five or more targets in three consecutive contests but his efficiency has been lacking as those opportunities have yielded a meager 29.0 receiving yards per game. Conversely, Harris has seen at least 12 rushing attempts in eight consecutive contests with six of those games coming with carry totals of 15-plus. Harris’ presence alongside Warren has become a glaring hindrance to his teammate’s ceiling leaving the latter of the two options as nothing more than a low-level desperation flex play in the fantasy football championships.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward