Dynasty Market Report: Week 17

Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all in, the deck is stacked in your favor. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.” Today, we look at some intriguing assets in Dynasty, drawing unbiased values from Sleeper ADP, Dynasty League Football, and KeepTradeCut in an attempt to exploit certain market discrepancies. As always, we will be viewing these players and values through a Superflex lens.

WEEK 17 DYNASTY MARKET REPORT

NOTABLE MARKET RISERS:

CeeDee Lamb (WR) - Dallas Cowboys

CeeDee Lamb has long held a position as a cornerstone asset in dynasty leagues, despite some under-expectation seasons to begin his career. The ceiling suggested by Lamb’s prospect profile, draft capital, and year-one talent insulated the receivers' Dynasty value well beyond his per-season averages. Now, Lamb has exceeded his lofty range of outcomes as a year-four superstar, averaging 21.83 PPR PPG as the WR2 overall. The tier between Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase is closing rapidly as Lamb is plateauing as the consensus Dynasty WR3 and 6th Player Overall, representing just one of three non-quarterbacks being selected in the top six players in Superflex leagues.

Breece Hall (RB) - New York Jets

Breece Hall has struggled to produce consistent rushing totals behind the Jets offensive line this season, falling below 50 rushing yards in nine of his last ten outings. Thankfully, Hall has supplemented any deficiencies as a runner with an incredible yet unexpected receiving profile. The second-year is most recently coming off an RB1 Overall (43.1 PPR Points) performance where he rushed for 95 yards on 20 attempts (4.75 YPC) with two touchdowns while catching an absurd 12 receptions on a team-high 16 targets for an additional 96 yards receiving. Hall has finally entered the top 25 overall assets on the Dynasty market after being on the outside looking in for much of the 2023 season.

DeVonta Smith (WR) - Philadelphia Eagles

DeVonta Smith teters back and forth between a WR1 and a high-end WR2 in an ever-wavering battle of his Dynasty value judgment. Smith has seen a recent uptick despite some middling performances in his past three games, representing an interesting insulation for the promising young receiver that was previously not granted by consensus market adjusters.

Kyle Pitts (TE) - Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons offense has capped the upside of three generational weapons (Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts) with all three players losing major value as once-coveted assets. Two top-ten positional finishes in the last three games were more than enough for Pitts’ truthers to make major investments in the once-in-a-lifetime prospect as rebuilders can still acquire the tight end at a significant discount compared to his sky-high ceiling. The frustrations that were once held against Pitts have dissipated slightly as Dynasty managers are beginning to weigh the future with only one game remaining in the 2023 season.

Cole Kmet (TE) - Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet has propelled himself into the top-10 tight ends and top-100 players on the Dynasty market, settling as the TE9/100th Overall after four consecutive outings as a top-10 scorer at his position. Kmet has put up double-digit scoring performances in each game during that stretch, and has five or more targets in seven of his last eight games, falling outside of the TE1 tier only once since Week 8.

NOTABLE MARKET FALLERS:

Brock Purdy (QB) - San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy’s worst performance of the 2023 season came at the worst possible time as managers were vying for a fantasy football championship. After four interceptions and no touchdowns against the Ravens, the market has rebelled against Purdy’s top-12 positional ranking, dropping the quarterback to QB13/28th player overall.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB) - Miami Dolphins 

The Dolphins franchise quarterback has seen a notable market dip after several weeks of middling production after starting the season with an incredible ceiling. Tua has fallen outside of the top 20 quarterbacks in four of his last five games, including three consecutive finishes below QB22. He has just five touchdowns in the last five games and has not surpassed the 300-yard mark since Week 11 against the Raiders. It appears as if the Tagovailoa is less a product of his own development and more a product of Tyreek Hill’s incredible 2023 successes.

Saquon Barkley (RB) - New York Giants

Saquon Barkley has finished as a top-eight scorer at his position in two of his last four games. Unfortunately, Barkley has also finished outside of the top 40 running backs in the other two outings during that four-game stretch. Managers are in constant fear of a drop off from the once generational talent and his declining value on the market coupled with some inconsistent lows has reflected a short leash of insulated value.

Stefon Diggs (WR) - Buffalo Bills

Stefon Diggs has fallen off dramatically in the previous weeks, posting five finishes below WR45 (WR54, WR53, WR52, WR45, WR53) in the past six weeks with a WR15 outing sandwiched in between. The veteran’s recent decline has culminated in a useless 7.7 PPR PPG over the last three games, leaving managers to make difficult adjustments on a player who is still averaging 16.73 PPR PPG as the WR10/35th player in scoring this season.

Josh Jacobs (RB) - Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs' recent absences coupled with a heavily disappointing 2023 campaign have caused a violent and justifiably shift in the Raiders star running back’s Dynasty value. Jacobs' youth and production have dissipated throughout the season as the 26-year-old running back is averaging just 12.5 PPR PPG as the RB19 Overall.

Zach Charbonnet (RB) - Seattle Seahawks

Zach Charbonnet’s utility and usage swiftly dissipated upon Kenneth Walker’s return to the lineup. The rookie running back’s year one scoring totals have greatly diminished his career range of outcomes, reflecting a handcuff option limited to change-of-pace work. Charbonnet’s only path to relevance comes with an injury to Walker.

DYNASTY WAIVER ADDS:

Demarcus Robinson (WR) - Los Angeles Rams

Demarcus Robinson is coming off a 20.2-point outing against the Saints where he hauled in all six of his targets for 82 yards and a score. Week 16 marked four consecutive contests for Robinson with a touchdown as he quietly increased his playing time to a consistent 91.3% of the offensive snaps during that stretch. Robinson’s most recent showing with a 100.0% catch rating may help increase his role in an easy Week 17 matchup against the Giants.

Chris Rodriguez (RB) - Washington Commanders

Chris Rodriguez took over for Brian Robinson as the Commanders starting running back in Week 16 as the latter of the two teammates remains sidelined. The rookie running back scored twice, finishing with ten rushing attempts for 58 yards and two touchdowns. Rodriguez has seen ten rushing attempts in back-to-back contests and could conceivably carve out a role for himself past the 2023 season.

Zamir White (RB) - Las Vegas Raiders

Zamir White has posted two consecutive finishes inside the top 15 running backs, scoring 16.0 points in Week 15 (RB12) and 15.5 points (RB15) in Week 16 after taking over for an injured Josh Jacobs. White most recently put up a career-high 145 rushing yards on 22 carries (6.59 YPC) against a solid Chiefs defense. White presents league-winning upside from the flex spot if Jacobs remains sidelined. The second-year starter on the rise is in a smash spot entering Week 17 as the Raiders head to face the Colts who rank at the very bottom of defenses for PPG allowed to opposing running backs.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward