Broto Bets went 4-3 and won 0.82 units in Wild Card Weekend. The Browns and Cowboys got blown out while Mike Evans failed to reach the end zone. All things considered, we could have done way worse in a wacky Wild Card Weekend. Try saying that 5 times fast.
2023 Total: 49-44-2, -3.175u
Teasers:
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) O/U: 43.5
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) O/U: 50.5
Themi’s Teaser: Ravens -2.5, 49ers -2.5
(7-point teaser, -140)
Surely if the Texans can destroy an elite Browns defense, they should have half a chance against an elite Ravens defense, right? That may just be wishful thinking though and it is unlikely to happen for a variety of reasons. The biggest reason is that Cleveland’s offense ranked 28th in the league. Joe Flacco was having a surprise resurgence but was he actually that good? He’s only 22nd in PFF Grade and 26th in EPA+CPOE, just behind Deshaun Watson. He also threw 8 INTs in six starts.
Baltimore, on the other hand, is coming off two weeks of rest and boasts the 5th best offense. It’s fitting that their first game of the season was against Houston, and they beat them 25-9 at home. The Texans have undoubtedly improved and C.J. Stroud is entering the highest QB tiers in his first season. However, they have some major defensive concerns that we saw when they played Cleveland. Big plays, especially to the TE, were rampant and Todd Monken should be well-equipped to take advantage with Isaiah Likely and possibly Mark Andrews. Baltimore will want to run with the best rushing offense in the league but Houston is 2nd in the league against it. That could be an issue but not something I expect to hurt them too much. Lamar is a great passer and should have a good enough receiver group to win. Tease them down to a FG.
The 49ers are the best team in the NFC and nobody comes close. Even when Dallas was still in the playoffs, they were clearly not on the same level. Yes, San Francisco is not invincible, as they do have five losses on the year, though one was when they rested starters. The Packers are a hot offense and Jordan Love should be a playoff staple for years to come. In all likelihood, this unreal run will come to an end this week. The #1 offense is already miles ahead of the 2nd place Dolphins, and while GB ranks 6th in overall offense, they’re just not reliable enough to trust. SF’s defense is where the difference lies. I know we said the same thing with the Cowboys but this is just a totally different situation. We know SF can and will beat down just about any team in the league. Their defense isn’t perfect but still ranks 4th. Green Bay, despite stalling Dak Prescott, is 27th. They’re equally bad against both the pass and the run, and CMC should take full advantage of a defense that has often disappointed and kept subpar teams in it. Kyle Shanahan is an offensive genius and his team should do some serious damage on Saturday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions (-6.5) O/U: 48.5
Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills O/U: 45.5
Themi’s Teaser: Lions -0.5, Chiefs +8.5
(6-point teaser, -120)
Congratulations, Detroit! You deserve this moment and should treasure this team for as long as it lasts. That should hopefully be for at least one more week. Tampa is a solid team at times but they took advantage of an awful Eagles team that has dropped to 21st in weighted DVOA. To their credit, Tampa is 15th and steamrolled them harder than most expected. Even with a key player in A.J. Brown out, they had a chance. The Lions should be up to the challenge though. They’re 7th in both total and weighted DVOA and rank 5th on offense. The Bucs are good when passing and should have a good day against a very beatable Lions secondary but the offensive difference is just massive. The Lions can beat most teams in a shootout and it shouldn’t even get to that point on Sunday. There is a chasm in talent between these teams. It’s good to see a healthy Bucs defense playing well, and there’s certainly upset potential here but Dan Campbell is not going to be happy with one win. Sam LaPorta is a superhuman being coming back from injury absurdly quickly and the team is riding high off of the win. Things were different when Detroit trotted into Tampa and won 20-6 but it’s not different enough to justify backing the Bucs.
That’s right, I’m teasing every single spread this week. We have 3 favorites in a great spot to win over very flawed teams and now an underdog Chiefs team in a great spot to cover. My biggest issue with this teaser is that I’m very confident in the Detroit leg to hit but this one gives me a lot of pause. The biggest concern is that the Bills are absolutely rolling. They’re 3rd in both total and weighted DVOA behind the obvious favorites in Baltimore and San Francisco. They beat the Chiefs in Kansas City at the start of their unbeaten run and followed that up with a near-perfect performance against the Cowboys. Now hosting the Chiefs for only the 2nd time in the Mahomes era, they have a chance to put up a statement win as they look to hoist the Lombardi for the first time in franchise history. However, it feels like a one-score win should be the maximum for Buffalo barring something incredible. They’re hurt on defense and still vulnerable despite seemingly figuring it out late in the year. The Chiefs are no slouches either and rank 7th on defense. Buffalo may boast the 3rd best offense in the league but even Patrick Mahomes on a down year is leading the 8th ranked offense and ranking 9th in EPA+CPOE. Mahomes’ rushing ability is especially underrated. He’s 1st in QB rushing DVOA amongst QBs with at least 5 attempts. That’s not to discount Josh Allen, but Buffalo hasn’t been great at stopping QB rushing.
Straight:
Lions -6.5 (-110)
I have taken a spread that I already teased but not with a favorite this season. There’s no rule saying you shouldn’t do this, though it would be interesting to dive into for next season, but I like Detroit enough to trust them by a TD. The teaser section covers them but seriously, the offensive gap is insane.
Chiefs ML (+125) (0.25u)
The teaser section covers this game in depth but I like KC to win just enough to put a quarter of a unit on them.
Trey Palmer Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Palmer slowly but surely overtook Deven Thompkins for the WR3 role in Tampa. His 68 targets lead all Bucs rookie WRs since Mike Evans in 2014. He’s also getting hot at the right time. Over the past five games, he has averaged 4.75 targets and 48 receiving yards per game. He drew at least 5 targets in three of those games but missed out last week as the Bucs wiped the floor with an Eagles team that couldn’t generate any offense. Now, facing a great Lions team, we should expect an increase in targets and general need to pass. The Lions are favored by about a TD in this one, and the teaser section covers a lot about this matchup. Detroit allows the 11th most DVOA and receiving yards to WR3s in the league. Despite boasting the best run defense in the league, they’re 16th against the pass and have been beaten by a lot of teams through the air. In their win over the Rams, they let Matthew Stafford throw for 367 yards as Puka Nacua feasted. Let’s not forget that Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell, and Cooper Kupp all exceeded 25 receiving yards as well. LA runs 11 personnel a lot which may not be suitable for Tampa but the projected game-script and inability to run should lead to opportunities to get targeted and beat this line on a big play or two.
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by Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.