The NFL Playoffs are a hallowed ground where the final chapters of the season will be written. Let’s take a look at the six matchups we have on deck for Super Wild Card Weekend.
AFC - FIRST ROUND BYE
1 Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
AFC - WILD CARD ROUND
2 Buffalo Bills (11-6) vs 7 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
3 Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) vs 6 Miami Dolphins (11-6)
4 Houston Texans (10-7) vs 5 Cleveland Browns (11-6)
NFC - FIRST ROUND BYE
1 San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
NFC - WILD CARD ROUND
2 Dallas Cowboys (12-5) vs 7 Green Bay Packers (9-8)
3 Detroit Lions (12-5) vs 6 Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) vs 5 Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
GAME 1
4 Houston Texans (10-7) vs 5 Cleveland Browns (11-6)
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Betting Favorite: Browns - 2.5 Points
Keys To Victory:
Houston Texans
Protect the Quarterback
Win Turnover Battle
Lockdown Amari Cooper
Cleveland Browns
Relentlessly Pressure C.J. Stroud
Give Joe Flacco Time to Work Downfield
Defense Wins Championships
Injury Reports:
Cleveland Browns Injury Report
Matchup Breakdown:
The Texans enter the game on a two-game streak as winners of three of their last five games. The team has quickly turned around a bottom-feeding franchise by drafting a superstar franchise quarterback to go alongside a youthful and respectable defensive unit. The Texans' offense excelled above expectations in every category, averaging 366.2 scrimmage yards (10th), with 245.5 passing yards (7th), and 22.2 points per game (12th). Their defense struggled at times but held their own throughout the season, allowing just 351.6 scrimmage yards (16th), and 20.8 points per game (11th) while boasting an elite run defense that concedes a mere 96.6 rushing yards (6th) to their opposition. The Texans boast a 4000-plus yard passer in C.J. Stroud (4108 passing yards), a 1000-plus yard receiver in Nico Collins (1297 receiving yards), and a 1000-plus scrimmage yard running back in Devin Singletary (898 rushing yards, 193 receiving yards). Despite impressive seasons, the Texans' core of youthful assets may prove to be too inexperienced to handle their upcoming opponents.
The Browns have won four of their last five games largely in part due to their imposing defense and an unsuspecting career resurgence from veteran mid-season signing Joe Flacco. Vegas betting lines currently favor the traveling Browns by 2.5 points after a strong end to the 2023 season. Flacco has helped helm an offense that ranks 13th in scrimmage yards (354.6), 19th in passing yards (217.2), and 12th in rushing yards (118.6) while averaging a top-10 ranked 23.3 points per game (10th). The Browns offense has done just enough to keep them in the playoff hunt while their top-ranked defense mauls opposing offenses. With a defensive front led by DPOY candidate Myles Garrett, the Browns have allowed just 290.7 scrimmage yards (1st) to opponents per game with 164.7 passing yards (1st) and 105.5 rushing yards (11th). They allow a pedestrian 21.3 points per game to rival offenses while keeping drives short with a league-leading 29.1% 3rd down conversion rating. The Browns' keys to victory are simple, keep the clock rolling and let the defense do the dirty work.
GAME 2
3 Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) vs 6 Miami Dolphins (11-6)
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Betting Favorite: Chiefs - 4.0 Points
Keys To Victory:
Kansas City Chiefs
Establish the Run with Pacheco
Get Kelce Confidence's Up and Keep Him Rolling Early
Limit Big Plays
Miami Dolphins
Pressure Mahomes, Force Mistakes
Keep Tua Upright
Score Early, Control the Clock
Injury Reports:
Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report
Matchup Breakdown:
The Chiefs enter Wild Card Weekend as winners of three of their last five games, finishing with a largely disappointing 11-6 record as the defending Super Bowl champions. The offense showed some regression in scoring, averaging 21.8 points per game (15th) while posting 362.8 scrimmage yards (11th), 246.4 passing yards (6th), and 104.9 rushing yards (19th) per game. The Chiefs defense was the surprising heroes of the 2023 season, allowing a stifling 310.4 scrimmage yards (3rd), 175.5 passing yards (4th), 113.2 rushing yards (16th), and a meager 17.3 points (2nd) to opposing offenses. Establishing their offensive presence early while limiting the big plays of the Dolphins superstars is a must for the Chiefs if they hope to keep their repeat Super Bowl dreams alive.
The Dolphins have had an up-and-down season, finishing with an 11-6 record after losing two of their last five games. Tua Tagovailoa bests Mahomes in total yards (4624:4183), touchdowns (29:27), and QB Rating (101.1:92.6). The Dolphins high-powered offense ranks tops in the league, averaging 412.1 scrimmage yards (1st), 265.5 passing yards (1st), 135.8 rushing yards (7th) and 29.2 points (2nd) per game. Their defense has battled through some catastrophic injuries but remained strong, allowing 340.1 scrimmage yards (12th), 221.2 passing yards (15th), 97.1 rushing yards (7th), and 23.0 points per game (22nd). The Dolphins will need to force Mahomes and company to play from behind early as the Chiefs' second-half offense has been amongst the worst in the NFL this season.
GAME 3
2 Buffalo Bills (11-6) vs 7 Steelers (10-7)
Over/Under: 36.5 Points
Betting Favorite: Bills - 10.0 Points
Keys To Victory:
Buffalo Bills
Ball Security is a Must. No Costly Mistakes.
Let James Cook
Rely On Run Game
Pittsburgh Steelers
Force Turnovers and Create Extra Possessions
Limit Third-Down Conversions
Find a Spark without Watt
Injury Reports:
Pittsburgh Steelers Injury Report
Matchup Breakdown:
The Bills needed all 17 games to secure the AFC East division title, wrapping up the season with a must-win victory over the Dolphins in Week 18. They enter this week’s matchup on a red-hot five-game win streak, turning around a disappointing 6-6 start to their 2023 campaign. The firing of Ken Dorsey has opened up a Bills offense that is now averaging 383.4 scrimmage yards (4th), 244.4 passing yards (8th), 130.1 rushing yards (7th), and 26.5 points (6th) per game all while leading the league in third down conversion percentage (49.8%). The Bills' defense has been equally imposing, giving up just 326.8 scrimmage yards (8th), 196.6 passing yards (7th), 110.6 rushing yards (15th), and 18.3 points (4th) per game despite key losses to their unit with Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White on the sidelines. Nevertheless, they enter the Wild Card Weekend as 10.0-point home favorites, representing the largest gap between opponents of any game on the slate.
The Steelers have now recorded 17 consecutive winning seasons under head coach Mike Tomlin, marking the longest active streak of any head coach in the NFL. The team battled through adversity and the loss of their starting quarterback to post a 10-7 record, winning three straight games to close out the season as the third of three teams to represent the AFC North in the NFL Playoffs. The Steelers offense has struggled all season, mainly due to the archaic play-calling of former offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Even after Canada’s firing, the Steelers ended the season averaging just 319.5 scrimmage yards (25th), 186.1 passing yards (25th), 118.2 rushing yards (13th), and 17.9 points (27th) per game. They paved their playoff path on the back of good coaching and a top-ranked scoring defense that concedes just 19.1 (5th) points to their opponents. The Steelers' defense will now have to operate without DPOY candidate T.J. Watt as the All-Pro edge rusher suffered a significant knee injury in the final game of 2023. The odds are stacked against the Steelers but victory is certainly within grasp if they can force Josh Allen into a few costly turnovers.
GAME 4
2 Dallas Cowboys (12-5) vs 7 Green Bay Packers (9-8)
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Betting Favorite: Cowboys -7.5 Points
Keys To Victory:
Dallas Cowboys
Dak And CeeDee Connection
All Out Pressure Defense
Pollard Ups Efficiency to Help Close Out Game
Green Bay Packers
Shut Down the Intermediate Pass, Make the Cowboys Run the Ball
Let Love Get Comfy. Score Early and Protect the Quarterback.
Silence Lamb. Make the Cowboys' Secondary Weapons Step Up.
Injury Reports:
Green Bay Packers Injury Report
Matchup Breakdown:
The Cowboys are heavy favorites at home and rightfully so after securing the NFC East Division championship with a 12-5 record. They enter Wild Card Weekend fresh off a two-game winning streak and a 38-10 shellacking of the Commanders in Week 18. The Cowboys' offense has been amongst the most lethal units in the NFL this season, posting 387.4 scrimmage yards (4th), 258.6 passing yards (3rd), and a league-leading 29.9 points (1st) per game but have lacked some in the rushing department with their mediocre 112.9 rushing (14th) yards per contest. Luckily, their ball-hawking defense has made up for their inability to grind the clock out. The Cowboys defense gives up just 317.1 scrimmage yards (6th), 187.4 passing yards( 5th), 112.4 rushing yards (14th), and 18.5 points (5th) per game to their opponents. Limiting turnovers and establishing the run late in the game will be imperative to get the victory but the Cowboys' offensive firing power should be more than enough to overcome those odds.
The Packers moseyed into the playoffs with three straight victories to close out the 2023 campaign, finishing with a 9-8 record and the last seed in the NFC to make the dance. Their offense has operated with balanced averages, putting up 359.7 scrimmage yards (12th), 233.4 passing yards (12th), 112.1 rushing yards (15th), and 22.5 points (12th) per game this season. Their defense has been a funnel for rushing production, allowing a whopping 128.3 rushing yards (28th) per game but the secondary has helped stem some of those woes by giving up just 206.8 passing yards (9th) and 20.6 points (10th) per contest. The Packers defense is built to withstand the high-powered passing attack of the Cowboys but if they are unable to stifle the rushing attack of a regressing Tony Pollard, they have no hopes of holding onto their Cinderella story.
GAME 5
3 Detroit Lions (12-5) vs 6 Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Over/Under: 51.5 Points
Betting Favorite: Lions - 3.0 Points
Keys To Victory:
Detroit Lions
Thunder and Lightning. Get Montgomery and Gibbs Rolling Early.
Stonewall Defense. Make Every Rushing Yard a Battle to Gain.
Get Stafford Out of Rhythm. Blitz, Blitz, Blitz.
Los Angeles Rams
Own the Trenches. Impose Your Will at Line of Scrimmage
Expose the Lions Secondary. All-Out Air Raid.
Quiet the Crowd. Score First.
Injury Reports:
Los Angeles Rams Injury Report
Matchup Breakdown:
The Lions enter this week’s game after winning just three of their last five games including a brutal unsuspecting loss to the Bears and a befuddling loss to the Cowboys that was ultimately decided by a referee error on the last play of the 4th quarter. They have lost every game, save for their 38-6 defeat against the Ravens, by one possession and were the only team undefeated through regulation (one overtime loss) through the first six weeks of the 2023 season. The Lions offense has found a new identity with four different players scoring 10 or more touchdowns (St.Brown, LaPorta, Montgomery, Gibbs), marking just the 2nd time in the Super Bowl Era in which an offense has produced such totals. The Lions average 406.9 scrimmage yards (3rd) on offense with 258.9 passing yards (2nd), 135.9 rushing yards (5th), and 27.1 points (5th) per game as arguably the most well-rounded offensive team in the NFL today. Their defense has struggled against the pass, giving up 351.7 scrimmage yards (20th) and 247.4 passing yards (27th) but has stymied the rushing output of virtually every opponent, allowing just 88.8 rushing yards (2nd) per game. The defense will need to hold its identity as a top-tier unit in order to overcome the Rams' high-powered rushing attack led by Kyren Williams.
The Rams are hot on a four-game winning streak, riding the back of their top-ranked offense to a playoff berth. Matthew Stafford has helped lead this offense to 373.2 scrimmage yards (7th) per game, ranking 10th in passing yards (239.0 yards/game), 11th in rushing yards (120.3 yards/game) and 8th in points scored (23.8 points/game). The unsuspecting and historic breakouts of second-year star Kyren Williams (1144 rushing yards, 206 receiving yards, 15 total touchdowns) and rookie sensation Puka Nacua (105 receptions, 1486 yards, 6 touchdowns) have given defenses fits all season while the masterful play-calling of Sean McVay and cerebral execution of Stafford keep the team afloat despite a roller-coaster season. The Rams' offensive line will have their hands full against the Lions' defensive front, leaving a difficult path for Stafford and company to produce at their usual rates. If the Rams can win the battle at the line of scrimmage, they could find themselves playing spoiler against an inspired Lions fanbase.
GAME 6
4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs 5 Philadelphia Eagles
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Betting Favorite: Eagles - 3.0 Points
Keys To Victory:
Philadelphia Eagles
Passing Game Must Excel
Stuff the Run and Make Mayfield Beat You
Limit Yards After The Catch
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Air It Out. Force an Old Fashioned Quarterback Duel
Vita Vea <VS> the Tush Push
Rachaad White: the Difference Maker
Injury Reports:
Philadelphia Eagles Injury Report
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Injury Report
Matchup Breakdown:
The Eagles squandered their chances at winning the NFC East Division title with several late-season losses, dropping four of their last five games while entering Wild Card Weekend on a two-game losing streak. The season has not gone according to plan for the Super Bowl hopefuls as their defense has regressed into a bottom-feeding mess that allows 371.1 scrimmage yards (26th), 252.7 passing yards (31st), 103.4 rushing yards (10th) and 25.2 points (30th) per game to opposing offenses. Jalen Hurts was able to set a new NFL record for rushing touchdowns after successfully implementing the “Tush Push” on countless occasions this season. Hurts has yet to take a significant forward leap as a passer, finishing the year with 3858 passing yards (226.9 yards/game), 23 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, and an 89.1 Quarterback Rating. For comparison, Baker Mayfield amassed 4044 passing yards (237.9 yards/game) with 28 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions despite completing just 12 more pass attempts than Hurts. Overall the Eagles offense maintained elite status, averaging 368.1 scrimmage yards (8th), 225.5 passing yards (16th), 128.8 rushing yards (8th), and 25.5 points (7th) per game in 2023. They are far from the powerhouse of yesteryear but the Eagles are rightful favorites despite playing on the road.
The Buccaneers enter the playoffs as an egregious 4-seed after claiming the throne to an NFC South division that combined for a league-low 27 wins and a league-high 31 losses. Their offense has been mediocre at best, posting 326.6 scrimmage yards (24th), 224.2 passing yards (17th), and 20.5 points (20th) per game with a league-worst 88.8 rushing yards (32nd) per contest. The Buccaneers' defense has stood strong against opposing rushing attacks, giving up just 95.3 rushing yards (5th) and 19.1 total points (6th) to their opponents but have struggled mightily at limiting passing production, giving up 364.0 scrimmage yards (23rd) and 248.9 passing yards (29th) per game. It is worth noting, however, that the Buccaneers boast not one, but two 1000-plus yard receivers (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin) and one of the NFL’s most dynamic receiving running backs (Rachaad White) while facing off against the league’s worst secondary. A surprising home upset is certainly in order if the Buccaneers can force the Eagles into a pass-friendly offensive battle.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start sit tool, player cards, statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more. FREE for a limited time.
Check out patreon.com/Brotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.
By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.