Dynasty Market Report: 2023 Season Review

The 2023 fantasy season is complete. The Dynasty market, however, is never ceasing.

Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all in, the deck is stacked in your favor. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.” 

Today, we look at some intriguing assets in Dynasty, drawing unbiased values from Sleeper ADP, Dynasty League Football, and KeepTradeCut in an attempt to exploit certain market discrepancies. In this special “Year in Review” edition, our focus will be on the year-long values of some of the NFL’s most intriguing players. As always, we will be viewing these players and values through a Superflex lens.

DYNASTY MARKET REPORT - YEAR IN REVIEW

TOP MARKET RISERS (BY POSITION):

QB: Jordan Love - Green Bay Packers

Year To Date Market Change - QB29 <> QB12

At this juncture last season, Aaron Rodgers was still a disgruntled prima donna in a Packers uniform and the Dynasty Market was forced to watch Jordan Love’s youth and unknown yet enticing potential rot away on the bench. Flash forward to today and Love is now eyeing down a Wild Card playoff berth in his first full season as a starter, leading the Packers to a 9-8 regular season record while posting 4,159 yards (244.6 yards/game), 36 total touchdowns (32 passing, 4 Rushing), and 11 interceptions with a 64.2% completion rating (372 pass attempts/579 completions). The young starter has firmly entrenched himself within the top 12 positional assets in Dynasty as he has earned the right to be the Packers' future franchise quarterback.

RB: Kyren Williams - Los Angeles Rams

Year To Date Market Change - RB76 <> RB6

Kyren Williams was a low-level collegiate prospect with one of the worst NFL Combine showings in history upon entering the 2022 NFL Draft. He then sat behind the likes of Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers during his first season with no positive impact or analytics to point toward a successful NFL career. None of it mattered. Williams has become an undeniable fantasy superstar with nine top-10 positional finishes in 2023. The second-year back finished his flourishing campaign with an average of 21.2 PPR PPG (RB2) and sits as the RB6 overall despite missing four games with an injury. He has surpassed 100 scrimmage yards in all nine of his RB1 outings, the most of any player this season not named Christian McCaffrey. Despite poor draft capital, poor athletic scores, and poor year-one production, Williams has propelled himself to the heights of RB6/34th player overall on the Dynasty market. There is no denying Williams' utility as a league-winning asset – a position he should hold in both production and value for as long as the shifty rusher is afforded a workhorse opportunity share.

WR: Puka Nacua - Los Angeles Rams

Year To Date Market Change - WR88 <> WR6

The Rams accounted for the two single-highest market leaps of any players this season, adding Puka Nacua to their incredible front-office scouting resume of late-round prospect success stories. Matthew Stafford, known by several fantasy pundits as the “kingmaker” for wide receivers, has now supported two of the top fantasy seasons for wideouts with two triple crown winners (Calvin Johnson, Cooper Kupp) as well as the greatest rookie season in the history of the NFL. Nacua now stands alone as the sole leader in rookie receiving yards, setting the NFL record with 1486 yards (4th) on 105 receptions (8th) and 160 targets (6th) while catching six touchdowns. The Rams superstar rookie ended the season averaging 17.7 PPG (WR6) as the WR4 Overall (582.9 Fantasy Points). There is a legitimate argument to be made that Nacua is currently heavily undervalued after smashing through every suggested analytical metric possible for determining an elongated career in elite production. The anchoring bias of Nacua’s draft capital and lack of collegiate production has effectively blinded managers to the unmatched historic numbers put up by the Rams rookie. A common and practical hypothetical used for analyzing Nacua’s current value can be found when attaching his year-one stat line to ANY of the rookie wide receivers selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. For example, if Jaxon Smith-Njigba were to break the single-season rookie receiving yards record alongside a triple-crown winning Hall of Fame wideout, the Dynasty market would undoubtedly value him as an untouchable cornerstone asset in the same realm as Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb. Nacua has not been afforded the same value insulation that comes alongside his absurd production yet has met every perceivable requirement for investing without caution. 

TE: Sam LaPorta - Detroit Lions

Year To Date Market Change - TE29 <> TE1

Historic is just one of many adjectives used to describe Sam LaPorta’s inaugural NFL campaign. Elite, otherworldly, record-setting, take your pick – the Lions rookie tight end deserves any and all accolades thrown his way after setting a new league record with 86 receptions in his first year. LaPorta levied his grabs into 889 yards and 10 touchdowns, leading the league in tight end scores while finishing with 14.1 PPG (TE3) as the TE1 Overall (464.7 Fantasy Points). LaPorta became the first rookie tight end since Mike Ditka in 1961 (435.6 Fantasy Points) to finish as the TE1 Overall, setting a new rookie record for most fantasy points in a single season in the process while scoring a whopping 59.0 points more than the second-highest scoring rookie in 2023 (Dalton Kincaid). If the 52-year gap of production and 59.0-point gap in scoring wasn’t a strong enough indicator then it is worth noting that LaPorta’s rookie campaign is amongst the rarest first-year performances in NFL history, setting the Lions star up for a lengthy career of top-tier production. LaPorta is rightfully valued as the number one tight end on the Dynasty market and would need a monumental drop off in year-two production to see his value insulation dissipate.

NOTABLE MARKET RISERS (HONORABLE MENTIONS):

Nico Collins (WR) - Houston Texans

Year To Date Market Change: WR63 <> WR14

Nico Collins broke through his suggested range of outcomes with a phenomenal 2023 campaign, posting 80 receptions on 109 targets for 1297 yards and eight touchdowns. Collins capped off his season with a career-best 195 receiving yards on nine receptions, leaving a lasting impression in the minds of Dynasty managers. The big-bodied wideout has smashed his suggested floor of production, increasing his dynasty value to that of a must-add cornerstone asset. Attaching Collins' newfound production to the youthful gunslinging arm of superstar rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud for the foreseeable future certainly does not hurt.

Trey McBride (TE) - Arizona Cardinals

Year To Date Market Change: TE13 <> TE3

Trey McBride is quickly establishing himself as a current and future superstar in the NFL during his second season. The Cardinals tight end boasts one of the greatest analytical receiving profiles of any tight end in collegiate football history and has exhibited how he reached those heights over the second half of the 2023 campaign. McBride amassed seven TE1 performances over the last eight games of the season, including five top-five finishes. The stellar sophomore posted nine total TE1 finishes in 11 starts following Zach Ertz’s injury and eventual departure from the team. McBride tallied four games with more than 25.0 PPR Points, seven games with more than 15.0 PPR Points, and nine games with double-digit PPR Points during that stretch. McBride finished the season with 81 receptions on 106 targets for 825 yards with three touchdowns. A strong end to the season helped lift his pedestrian averages to 10.6 PPG (TE9) while ending as the TE8 Overall (356.2 Fantasy Points). McBride is staring down the pipeline of a sole starter role in 2024 and should continue to produce at a career norm that closely reflects the final 11 games of his 2023 campaign.

De’Von Achane (RB) - Miami Dolphins

Year To Date Market Change: RB37 <> RB7

De’Von Achane opened up his rookie season with one carry for five yards in his first game as an NFL running back. The speedster then proceeded to run rampant on opposing defenses, tallying 518 scrimmage yards (172.6 yards/game) and seven touchdowns (2.3 touchdowns/game) over the next three contests. Achane’s health would prove to be his only weakness on the football field as the rookie suited up for only 11 games, starting four as the leading man. Despite playing in only 11 games, Achane ranked 2nd amongst all players in the NFL with 279 Rushing Yards Over Expected with only 103 carries, leading the NFL with 4.4 Yards After Contact/Carry – the only running back in the league under 200 lbs to be ranked within the top 10. A perceivably weak 2024 rookie running back draft class will help insulate Achane’s RB1 value during the cosmic shifts of the offseason while the pairing with mastermind head coach Mike McDaniel and his turbocharged offense should help keep the rookie’s production sky-high as long as he is healthy enough to suit up.

TOP MARKET FALLERS (BY POSITION):

QB: Trey Lance - San Francisco 49ers <> Dallas Cowboys

Year To Date Market Change: QB12 <> QB39

The final nail in Trey Lance’s career coffin was hammered down when the Cowboys sent an unconditional fifth-round pick to the 49ers in exchange for the third-year quarterback. The former third-overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft started just four games (8 Total Games Played) for the 49ers during his tenure, tallying 797 passing yards, 235 rushing yards, six total touchdowns (5 passing, 1 rushing), and three interceptions with a 2-2 record as a starter. The 49ers once exchanged three first-round picks for the rights to draft their future starter, only to replace him with a seventh-round checkdown artist two years later. Lance is now listed as the third-string/emergency quarterback on a Cowboys roster that bolsters perennial MVP candidate and unquestioned franchise cornerstone Dak Prescott as their captain in command. There is no perceivable avenue for Lance to develop into anything more than a desperation backup with menial rushing upside as his passing mechanics have yet to be honed into an acceptable level for NFL competition. 

RB: Austin Ekeler - Los Angeles Chargers

Year To Date Market Change: RB9 <> RB34

Austin Ekeler didn’t just fall off the age cliff, he dove head first into a free-falling nose dive off of it. Not only has the Chargers offense fallen into a deep pit of dysfunction with the mid-season firing of head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco but the aging Ekeler has become a primary focus of the recent slump for Dynasty managers. The veteran running back has seemingly lost all burst, plodding his way to menial yardage while rescinding his respected reputation as a reception machine in PPR formats. Ekeler's age and lack of production have left Dynast managers no choice but to pivot off of the perennially ranked RB1. The veteran averaged a middling 13.3 PPR PPG (RB21) as the RB27 Overall (358.9 Fantasy Points), posting pedestrian numbers with just six total touchdowns (5 rushing, 1 receiving), 628 rushing yards on 179 attempts (3.5 YPC: Ranked 56th), and a career-low 0.49 Points Per Opportunity Excluding Touchdowns (RB44). Soon to be 29 on a team with disposable draft capital and salary cap room, Ekeler may find himself as a disposable asset both for the Chargers franchise and his fantasy managers. 

WR: Kadarius Toney - Kansas City Chiefs

Year To Date Market Change: WR25 <> WR95

A vast and unknown world of the potential possessed by Kadarius Toney had once lifted the receivers' value to a near WR2 level after a mid-season move sent the open-field missed-tackle maven from the Giants to the Chiefs. That starry-eyed disposition has since dissipated into a disastrous drop off in value and production from Toney despite his attachment to the limitless talents of Patrick Mahomes. Several drops and miscues from Toney helped rookie wideout Rashee Rice to usurp all utility of the Chiefs' remaining pass-catchers, save for Travis Kelce. Toney is merely a decoy windsprinter along the sidelines and possesses no forward path to relevance as a capable NFL wideout.

TE: Travis Kelce - Kansas City Chiefs

Year To Date Market Change: TE1 <> TE10

Travis Kelce represents the most significant and drastic change in year-to-year value of any player on this list. The future Hall of Fame tight end may not have had as large of a positional dropoff as the players mentioned above but his ever-decreasing value as the TE10/91st Player Overall marks the lowest consensus evaluation of Kelce’s career since his second season in the league. The veteran tight end went scoreless in his final six games of the 2023 season, failing to surpass 50 yards in his last three outings while Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco stole the spotlight. It should not be surprising that a 34-year-old tight end with a history of absurd usage against NFL defenders has finally started to regress in production but the Dynasty market surely did not appear ready for such lows when looking ahead during the offseason. It is feasible that we have seen the last of Kelce’s absurd heights as he enters the twilight of his historic career.

NOTABLE MARKET FALLERS (DISHONORABLE MENTIONS):

Daniel Jones (QB) - New York Giants

Year To Date Market Change: QB14 <> QB29

Daniel Jones' pseudo-QB1 status was short-lived after a disastrous start and equally disastrous finish to his 2023 campaign. Jones had been sliding down the value board for much of the season, largely in part due to his erratic decision-making and menial production. A devastating season-ending ACL tear leaves managers with no wiggle room when evaluating the Giants franchise quarterback. Jones has fallen outside of the top 150 overall assets as the QB29 and 162nd player overall on the Dynasty market.

Stefon Diggs (WR) - Buffalo Bills

Year To Date Market Change: WR10 <> WR27

No player had a bigger fall from grace than Stefon Diggs during the final weeks of the 2023 campaign. After averaging 21.6 PPG with seven WR1 outings during the first nine weeks, the Bills’ star receiver posted just one game inside the top 15 with six games outside of the top 45 and five games outside of the top 50 receivers all while averaging a mere 8.8 PPG from Week 9 onward. Soon to be 31 years old and in his 9th season, Diggs is no longer a player the Dynasty market is willing to hold with diamond hands.

Tony Pollard (RB) - Dallas Cowboys

Year To Date Market Change: RB5 <> RB20

The excitement surrounding Tony Pollard and his proposed workhorse role as the Cowboys' lone RB1 was palpable throughout the Dynasty community after the career backup posted an RB8 finish behind Ezekiel Elliott in 2022. Unfortunately, those expectations yielded continuous disappointment for Pollard’s Dynasty managers as he turned in just 13.0 PPR PPG (RB23) as the RB23 Overall (428.6 Fantasy Points). Pollard ranked 7th in total rush attempts (252), 8th in receptions (55), 5th in True Target Value (1.86), and 2nd in Red Zone Opportunities (72) but managed just six total touchdowns, 5.7 receiving yards/game (RB58), and 59.1 rushing yards/game (RB20). Approaching the dreaded 28-year-old age cliff for Dynasty running backs, Pollard no longer fits the template of a league-winning asset.

2024 DYNASTY BUY LOW:

Stefon Diggs (WR) - Buffalo Bills

Current Value: WR27/67th Player Overall

Despite the aforementioned lows, Stefon Diggs remains a prime “Buy Low” candidate entering the 2024 season. A change in offensive coordinators and philosophy may rightfully bolster some blame for Diggs’ dropoff as the veteran wideout maintained elite peripheral analytics during his regression in production. He upheld a 29.5% target share (WR9) and 28.1% target rate (WR9) while finishing with 16.1 PPR PPG (WR13). Positive regression toward the norm is highly likely for the perennial WR1.

2024 DYNASTY SELL HIGH:

Justin Fields (QB) - Chicago Bears

Current Value: QB15/35th Overall

No seat is hotter in the NFL right now than Justin Fields’ position as the Bears starter after the franchise secured the first overall pick (via Panthers) in the 2024 NFL Draft. The front office is staring down a difficult decision with Caleb Williams and a fresh rookie contract firmly in their grasp. Fields has shown incredible flashes himself but remains a raw passer in need of a coaching and offensive overhaul while creeping eerily closer to a pricey contract extension. The Bears could conceivably part ways with their current starter, collecting major draft capital while resetting their franchise with a generational rookie talent. A change of scenery could conceivably increase Fields’ value but his risk as a borderline QB1 asset is not worth the inherent risk.

DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH - TOP DYNASTY WAIVER ADD OF 2023:

Puka Nacua (WR) - Los Angeles Rams

A no-brainer for the unquestioned Top Dynasty Waiver Add of 2023. Puka Nacua was not ranked within the top-48 consensus rookie prospects after the 2023 NFL Draft, meaning he went widely undrafted in Dynasty rookie drafts this offseason. Nacua has now catapulted himself into a tier of elite assets, requiring multiple first-round rookie picks in return for his services after setting the single-season NFL record for receiving yards by a first-year player.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward