Attention to exclusive and advanced analytics can give managers an advantage over the average competitor. However, the noise of unnecessary statistics can make the process of using advanced statistics quite intimidating. Here at Broto Fantasy, we aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the FF player by giving you every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.
In this recurring weekly series, we will highlight each of Broto Fantasy's exclusive statistics and use these numbers to project player validity throughout the NFL season.
This special edition of the True Value Report will hone in on the top participants in each matchup from the NFL’s upcoming Thanksgiving Day Games. We will have an asserted emphasis on Broto Fantasy’s exclusive True Matchup Rank, providing managers with an in-depth breakdown of some potentially big performers.
Before we embark on the matchups in question, let’s get initiated with Broto Fantasy’s comprehensive True Value Package.
TRUE THROW VALUE
True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback's full volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Fantasy managers can essentially understand this as adjusted fantasy points per pass attempt.
TRUE TARGET VALUE
A derivative of True Throw Value. True Target Value analyzes a player's quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their quarterback's True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable said player's targets are. The higher the value, the more projected points.
TRUE AIR YARDS
The total amount of yards a pass traveled before arriving at the target, adjusted for the completion probability of the throw.
TRUE PLAYER GRADES
A composite grade based on current-year production that evaluates past performance while analyzing trends to predict future production.
Now that we have the formalities out of the way, let's look at some of the top fantasy assets for the Thanksgiving slate.
BUFFALO BILLS AT DETROIT LIONS
Quarterback: Josh Allen (BUF)
True Throw Value: 0.536 - QB7
True Player Grade: 98.3 (A+) - QB2/2nd OVR
Josh Allen is displaying warnings of regression as a passer, seemingly coinciding with an elbow sprain in Week 9 that jeopardized his availability. The MVP hopeful has tossed multiple interceptions in three of his last four games with a TD: INT ratio of 4:6 over that span. Luckily, for Allen and company, the Bills get a cupcake-soft matchup in Week 12 as they “travel” to Ford Field to face the Lions. The Bills were forced to relocate their previous game to the Lions' home stadium following blizzard conditions in Buffalo in Week 11. The Lions concede 23.2 PPG to quarterbacks, ranked 2nd overall in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of 33.8%. Any apprehensions shrouding Allen’s recent decline as a passer should be easily mitigated by the foe he faces this week.
Running Back: Jamaal Williams (DET)
True Player Grade: 70.3 (C) - RB16/54th OVR
Jamaal Williams is leading all non-quarterbacks in touchdowns through 12 weeks of the 2022 season. The fan-favorite running back has found paydirt 12 times in 2022, seizing the top spot as the NFL’s touchdown leader after a three-score excursion against the Giants in Week 11. Williams leads all running backs with 35 red zone touches, incorporating a top-ranked 14 touches inside the five-yard line. D’Andre Swift has received minimal usage, playing fewer than 40.0% of the offensive snaps in every game since returning from injury. Williams has cemented himself as an every-down alternative and the top dog on the Lions' depth chart. The veteran back is averaging a respectable 15.4 PPR PPG (RB15) and 0.90 fantasy points per opportunity (RB16), upping his efficiency as Swift is slowly phased back into the offense. Over the last four contests, Williams has averaged 17.6 PPR PPG, surpassing double-digit fantasy points in each game. He has his work cut out for him against a Bills defense that allows just 11.9 PPG of rushing production to opposing running backs, ranked 25th in True Matchup Ranking with a negative Points Over Average of -11.1%. Williams will likely need to find the endzone yet again if managers hope for his run of rising production to continue.
Wide Receiver: Stefon Diggs (BUF)
True Target Value: 6.22 - WR2
True Air Yards: 528 (5.1 True aDOT) - WR4
True Player Grade: 97.9 (A+) - WR2/4th OVR
Stefon Diggs is capable of putting up WR1 overall numbers against any team. The all-pro wideout will be afforded ample opportunity to feast on Thanksgiving while playing against a hapless Lions defense that allows 30.1 PPG to the wide receiver position, ranked 8th in True Matchup Ranking with a positive Points Over Average margin of 9.6%. Diggs is pulling a target share of 29.4% (WR6) and averaging 22.7 PPR PPG—ranked 1st overall amongst WRs this season. The Bills' top receiver is maintaining unfathomable efficiency alongside his elite opportunity share. Diggs is averaging 7.6 REC, 103.3 REC YDS, 3.16 Yards Per Route, and 2.75 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt, all of which rank in the top three in their respective categories. Managers will surely be singing thanks for having Diggs in their lineup in Week 12.
Wide Receiver: Amon-Ra St.Brown (DET)
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True Target Value: 4.37 - WR22
True Air Yards: 301 (3.9 True aDOT) - WR39
True Player Grade: 84.0 (B+) - WR13/30th OVR
The first thing that stands out when analyzing Amon-Ra St. Brown’s True Value Profile is his capacity to deliver high-value fantasy performances despite his middling True Target Value and cumulative True Air Yards total. The second-year wideout averages 15.6 PPG, earning a top-10 target share of 28.5% (WR10). A high-volume role as the Lions' lead wideout has helped St. Brown translate his low depth of target into game-altering production. St. Brown has not sacrificed efficiency for opportunity as he averages 2.68 yards (WR7) and 0.63 fantasy points (WR5) per route. The Bills are a formidable matchup on paper but are suffering through the loss of several key cogs on the defensive side. The team averages 27.9 PPG to opposing wideouts, ranked 15th in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of 2.2%. St. Brown is a must-start wideout with top 15 upside in his range of outcomes.
NEW YORK GIANTS AT DALLAS COWBOYS
Quarterback: Dak Prescott (DAL)
True Throw Value: 0.498 - QB12
True Player Grade: 54.1 (D-) QB17/63rd Overall
Dak Prescott’s early-season injuries and subsequent struggles have greatly affected his True Value Profile with abhorrent grades well below the quarterback's talent level. Prescott has caught fire as of late, posting three consecutive QB1 performances, scoring more than 20.0 fantasy points in every game since Week 7. Much like those who are hosting family dinners, the Cowboys will spend Thanksgiving with bitter rivals which they loathe and despise. The Giants are a tough matchup for quarterbacks, allowing just 14.7 PPG to the position with a negative Points Over Average of -2.4%. The Giants did, however, just allow Geno Smith to throw for 212 yards and two touchdowns while conceding over 300 yards to Trevor Lawrence in the game prior. Prescott is more than capable of exploiting a familiar foe, keeping his hot streak alive in Week 12.
Running Back: Saquon Barkley (NYG)
True Player Grade: 91.9 (A) - RB4/19th OVR
Saquon Barkley is the only player on the Giants' offense you can trust in your fantasy lineups this week against the Cowboys and that comes with some risk attached. Barkley has been superb this season, averaging 18.5 PPR PPG (RB6) with league-leading shares in both snaps (82.4%) and opportunity (84.9%). The do-it-all dynamo is earning a 15.7% target share (5th) to go alongside an absurd 83.3% rushing share, making the generational running back a must-start option against the Cowboys based on volume alone. The production delivered from said volume may be tougher to come by. The Cowboys' defense concedes just 16.8 PPG to the running back position, with a negative Points Over Average differential of -17.9%, ranked 26th in True Matchup Rank. Managers should start Barkley without hesitation but temper expectations against a difficult defensive opponent.
Running Back: Tony Pollard (DAL)
True Player Grade: 84.3 (B+) - RB11/28th OVR
Tony Pollard has long been a True Value Running Back darling, topping several efficiency rankings as the ultimate handcuff to Ezekiel Elliott. Pollard has blossomed into much more than a standard backup running back. The former fourth-round pick out of Memphis has recorded three consecutive weeks as a top eight RB1, including an RB1 overall outing in Week 11 where he put up 189 scrimmage yards with two touchdowns against the Vikings. Two of those three games in question were without Elliott in the lineup as Pollard took lead duties. Pollard’s RB1 outburst, however, came in Elliott’s first game back in the lineup, signaling that the younger back has earned a valuable role for himself moving forward, and for good reason. Pollard is not just the most talented running back on the Cowboys roster, he is amongst the most effective and efficient players in all of the NFL. Pollard averages a league-leading 5.9 Yards Per Carry and 11.6 Yards Per Reception, topping all running backs in both categories. He manages 6.8 yards per touch (RB2), averaging 1.10 fantasy points per opportunity (RB5) and 16.3 PPG (RB10). Unfortunately, Pollard’s hot streak may come to an end on Thanksgiving. The Giants are allowing a stifling negative Points Over Average of -7.6% to running backs, ranked 23rd in True Matchup Rank. The defense sits 17th in Points Over Average against rushing production (-1.2%) and 26th against receiving production (-23.5%) to the position. Pollard is a high-risk/high-reward option in Week 12.
Wide Receiver: CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
True Target Value: 3.89 - WR 29
True Air Yards: 489 (5.3 True aDOT) - WR6
True Player Grade: 88.8 (A-) - WR10/23rd OVR
CeeDee Lamb has been boringly consistent this season, averaging 16.4 PPR PPG (WR10) but posting just three weeks inside of the top ten options in fantasy points. He’s maintaining an incredible target share of 30.6% (WR5) but has just seven targets (WR33) inside of the red zone, capping his scoring ceiling at five touchdowns (WR13) through ten games. Lamb’s lack of looks inside the 20-yard line is reflected in his drastic differential in PPG and True Target Value. The third-year wideout remains an elite separator at all levels of the field, ranking sixth with 489 cumulative True Air Yards, and should be started regardless of matchup. Lamb can, however, be downgraded slightly in this matchup as the Giants allow 22.0 PPG to opposing wideouts, ranked 22nd in True Matchup Rank with a negative Points Over Average of -6.9%.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Quarterback: Kirk Cousins (MIN)
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True Throw Value: 0.393 - QB30
True Player Grade: 46.9 (F) - 82nd OVR
Kirk Cousins enters Week 12 fresh off the heels of a horrendous 40-3 blowout loss to the Cowboys. Cousins completed 12/23 pass attempts for 105 yards with no touchdowns, absorbing seven sacks from the vaunted Cowboys pass rush led by the nightmare that is Micah Parsons. The Vikings' signal-caller has regressed to an average of 16.3 PPG (QB16) after his 2.2-point outing against the Cowboys and presents a similar risk heading into this Thanksgiving showdown. The Patriots' defense permits a mere 16.4 PPG to quarterbacks ranked 21st in True Matchup Rank. They give up 12.1 points of production through the air (-1.0%), ranked 20th, and 4.3 points of production on the ground (13.1%), ranked 19th to the position. Cousins will undoubtedly bounce back from his lowest point total of the season but how far he rises remains to be seen. The veteran quarterback is a mid-range QB2 and serviceable streaming option but presents little upside as a week-winning asset. Don’t forget, this is a prime-time game after all.
Running Back: Dalvin Cook (MIN)
True Player Grade: 80.6 (B) - RB13/36th OVR
Dalvin Cook posted just one game inside of the top 12 running backs (Week 5 - RB6) before finding his footing in Week 8 against the Cardinals where he racked up 141 scrimmage yards with one touchdown for 25.1 PPG. He then recorded three consecutive top-15 scoring totals before falling flat in a blowout loss in Week 12. Cook is boasting a 75.7% opportunity share (6th) this season but has lost a large portion of the pass-catching work that helped him maintain his ceiling. The Vikings veteran is earning a career-low 9.5% target share this season with 22 receptions for 147 yards through 10 games. The Patriots' defense is an imposing unit against running backs, ranked 32nd in True Matchup Rank with a negative Points Over Average of -25.9%, allowing just 15.4 PPG to the position. The Patriots are more susceptible to receiving production from backfield opponents but Cook has not been a reliable producer in that category. Managers will need the game script to remain neutral if they expect a rare RB1 performance from the Vikings' lead running back.
Running Back: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
True Player Grade: 88.2 (A-) - RB8/24th OVR
Rhamondre Stevenson crowned himself the king of the Patriots' backfield this season and is not relinquishing the crown anytime soon. The presence of a healthy Damien Harris has done nothing to stem Stevenson’s incredible production and usage as a dual-threat hybrid. He facilitates a role as the second receiver behind Jakobi Meyers, snagging 41 passes for 283 yards and one touchdown this season. The second-year back is averaging a 17.5% target share, registering six or more targets in four consecutive contests leading into Week 12. The Vikings' defense just allowed Tony Pollard to put up a career game with six receptions for 109 yards and two touchdowns while conceding 80 yards on 15 carries to the young running back. Ezekiel Elliott also had his way with the Vikings when the Cowboys were in scoring territory, posting 42 yards on 15 carries with two touchdowns inside of the five-yard line. The Vikings are ranked 15th overall in True Matchup Rank to opposing running backs but allow 83.7% over expected in receiving production, ranked 1st in Points Over Average. Stevenson doesn’t just lead the Patriots' backfield in receiving, he is one of the league's top earners of touches inside the red zone. He has totaled 27 red zone touches this season (RB11) with five of those touches coming with less than five yards to pay dirt. His combination of elite usage in the passing game and high-valued touches inside of the red zone make Stevenson a fantastic play against an exploitable defensive matchup.
Wide Receiver: Justin Jefferson (MIN)
True Target Value: 5.09 - WR14
True Air Yards: 520 (5.0 True aDOT) - WR 5
True Player Grade: 97.3 (A+) - WR3/T-5th OVR
Justin Jefferson is arguably the most talented receiver in the NFL and his True Value Profile echoes that sentiment. Jefferson is earning a 29.3% target share (WR8), averaging 7.2 REC, 10.5 TGT, 109.3 REC YDS, and 21.6 PPR PPG (WR5). He has continuously surpassed his suggested output despite Kirk Cousins lowering the weighted value of the star wideouts opportunities. The Patriots' defense has allowed just 23.2 combined points to their opponents' wide receivers, ranked 26th in True Matchup Rank with a negative Points Over Average rating of -8.1%. Nevertheless, managers can start Jefferson with confidence. Just be wary knowing that his ceiling is likely lower than the weekly WR1 overall upside that he normally possesses.
Tight End: T.J. Hockenson (MIN)
True Target Value: 4.42 - TE3
True Air Yards: 302 (4.3 True aDOT) - TE6
True Player Grade: 56.8 (D-) - TE5/52nd OVR
The talent that T.J. Hockenson harnesses should never be in question. Even when trapped in the desolate dungeons of the Lions franchise, Hockenson flashed incredible game-breaking athleticism and production. The Vikings have seemingly figured out a way to harness that talent into a sustainable role. Hockenson has tallied nine or more targets in three consecutive contests, recording TE1 finishes in all four weeks since joining the Vikings. The Patriots' defense allows 11.9 PPG to tight ends with a Points Over Average of 23.5%, ranked 7th in True Matchup Rank for the position. Hockenson is firmly cemented in the top six tight ends for Week 12.
If you want to follow this series throughout the 2022 season, check out the other weekly reports here:
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.