Attention to exclusive and advanced analytics can give managers an advantage over the average competitor. However, the noise of unnecessary statistics can make the process of using advanced statistics quite intimidating. Here at Broto Fantasy, we aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the FF player by giving you every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.
In this recurring weekly series, we will highlight each of Broto Fantasy's exclusive statistics and use these numbers to project player validity throughout the NFL season.
Before we embark on our next edition of the True Value Report, let’s get initiated with Broto Fantasy’s exclusive True Value Package.
TRUE THROW VALUE
True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback's full volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Fantasy managers can essentially understand this as adjusted fantasy points per pass attempt.
TRUE TARGET VALUE
A derivative of True Throw Value. True Target Value analyzes a player's quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their quarterback's True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable said player's targets are. The higher the value, the more projected points.
TRUE PLAYER GRADES
A composite grade based on current-year production that evaluates past performance while analyzing trends to predict future production.
Now that we have the formalities out of the way, let's look at some of the league’s top dynamic duos in our exclusive True Value statistics.
JOSH ALLEN & STEFON DIGGS
Josh Allen
True Throw Value: 0.646
Rank: QB1
True Player Grade: 99.8 (A+)
Rank: QB1/1st OVR
Stefon Diggs
True Target Value: 8.37
Rank: WR1
True Player Grade: 98.0 (A+)
Rank: WR1/2nd OVR
BuffaLowDown
Josh Allen is playing on an otherworldly plane with MVP trajectory locked in his sights. The Bills quarterback leads the NFL in passing touchdowns and passing yards through six games with 1,980 yards and 17 touchdowns. He’s averaging 330.0 yards and 2.83 touchdowns per contest with a completion rating of 66.9%. The fifth-year gunslinger is scoring at a ridiculous rate, tallying 29.5 points per game with an average of 0.71 fantasy points per dropback (QB2). The former first-round pick can deliver high-value targets with pinpoint accuracy at all field levels. Allen’s passing prowess coupled with his unstoppable rushing ability has allowed him to surpass all other quarterbacks as the top option in fantasy football.
Stefon Diggs has been Allen’s primary target as the Bills' top producer in the passing game. Diggs leads the team in all receiving categories, catching 49 passes on 64 targets for 656 receiving yards and a league-leading six touchdowns. The 28-year-old star wideout averages 25.1 PPR PPG, topping all players at the position through the first six weeks of the season. Diggs commands a 28.3% (WR11) target share as the unquestioned alpha in the league’s most valuable passing offense. He is putting up an uber-efficient 3.22 yards per route run (WR3) and 2.67 yards per team pass attempt (WR6) despite a ridiculous opportunity share. The smooth separator is beating coverages at all areas and in every situation, evident by his True aDOT of and 12 total red zone targets this season. There is not a defensive matchup in the NFL that can slow this dynamic duo when they are connecting on this type of level.
JARED GOFF & AMON-RA ST. BROWN
Jared Goff:
True Throw Value: 0.540
Rank: QB6
True Player Grade: 83.1 (B+)
Rank: QB5/27th OVR
Amon-Ra St. Brown:
True Target Value: 6.72
Rank: WR3
True Player Grade: 88.0 (A-)
Rank: WR7/19th OVR
The Lions high-powered offensive attack has been one of the most surprising storylines of the 2022 season. The team averaged 423.6 scrimmage yards (2nd) and 28.0 points (3rd) per contest and ranked first in both categories before being shut out by the Patriots in Week 5. Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the unsuspecting duo that has spearheaded the offensive onslaught of the Lions. Goff is putting up 19.7 PPG this season, ranked QB6 with 1,355 passing yards and 11 touchdowns through five starts (Week 6 bye). The Lions' offensive line has allowed their quarterback to average 0.51 fantasy points per dropback (QB11) with an 82.0% clean pocket completion rating this season. The former Rams castaway is passing at a career-high pace with 37.2 attempts per game and has levied his increased volume with one of the league’s most valuable throws.
St. Brown accounts for exactly 20.0% of Goff’s cumulative passing production this season with 271 receiving yards despite missing the team’s Week 4 contest. The Lions' top receiver is averaging 19.7 PPG (WR6) and 0.70 fantasy points per route (WR3) as Goff’s most reliable target. The former fourth-round wideout has continued his dominant command of the passing offense into his second season, earning a 27.9% target share (WR14) and a target per route run rating of 34.8% (WR2). The stunning start to the Lions' season may eventually regress into their norm of mediocrity but St. Brown has established himself as a stand-alone star on the roster.
JOE BURROW & JA’MARR CHASE
Joe Burrow:
True Throw Value: 0.538
Rank: QB7
True Player Grade: 93.1 (A)
Rank: QB4/12th OVR
Ja’Marr Chase:
True Target Value: 7.99
Rank: WR2
True Player Grade: 88.5 (A-)
Rank: WR6/18th OVR
For the second season in a row, the Bengals' passing offense is a poster child for the effectiveness of True Value statistics. In the early weeks of 2021, Tee Higgins stood amongst the top receivers in True Target Value despite underperforming on fantasy rosters. Higgins would go on to finish the season as the WR12 overall while sharing the field with another WR1 in Ja’Marr Chase. This season, that narrative remains strong for the Bengals but Chase has taken over Higgins' spot as the underperforming asset with a top-ranked True Target Value. That is until Chase broke out with 32.2 PPR points as the WR1 overall in a performance that was poetically predicted by our True Value rankings. Chase ended a streak of four consecutive games in WR3 territory against the Saints, catching seven passes for 132 yards and two touchdowns. He enters Week 7 with 39 receptions, 475 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 18.1 PPG (WR8). The generational receiving talent has not lived up to his top-5 fantasy ADP in 2022 but all indicators suggest it is only a matter of time before he catches up to the competition ahead of him. Part of the reason managers can be so confident in a continued climb from the second-year star resides in the source of his 28.0% target share (WR12).
Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have unspoken chemistry that dates back to their collegiate days as members of LSU’s historic offense. That connection has run strong throughout Chase’s short tenure in the NFL and runs especially deep this season. Burrow has accumulated 1,616 passing yards through six games in 2022. Chase accounts for 29.39% of that production. That is not to say that the Bengals quarterback has not supported other weapons in the passing attack. Tee Higgins has two top-20 WR performances this season, including a 25.4-point outburst in Week 4 against the Dolphins. Hayden Hurst secured two consecutive top-12 outings with a height of 17.3 (TE5) points in Week 5. Even Tyler Boyd has a top-12 performance this season as he busted the Jets open for 105 yards and one touchdown on four receptions. Every member of the Bengals' passing attack is putting up meaningful fantasy numbers with Burrow at the helm. The only thing holding back these offensive weapons from being top producers on a more consistent basis is the unbearably vanilla play-calling of head coach Zac Taylor. The ceiling is limitless for this squad if Taylor can find an ounce of creativity in his listless soul.
PATRICK MAHOMES & TRAVIS KELCE
Patrick Mahomes
True Throw Value: 0.553
Rank: QB3
True Player Grade: 97.7 (A+)
Rank: QB2/3rd OVR
Travis Kelce
True Target Value: 7.10
Rank: TE2
True Player Grade: 95.1 (A+)
Rank: TE1/8th OVR
The True Value Report on dynamic duos would not be valid without the Chiefs’ most crucial couple. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have topped the True Value rankings since the moment they took the field together in the NFL. The departure of Tyreek Hill has only strengthened that bond with the pair riding an incredible streak of production throughout the season. No game was a better indicator of said connection than Kelce’s preposterously illogical receiving slash against the Raiders in Week 5. The Chiefs tight end made history, catching seven passes for four touchdowns and a hilariously low 25 yards. Kelce now holds the record for the lowest total of yards in a four-touchdown performance. The veteran tight end leads all players at the position with 21.8 PPR PPG with 41 receptions for 455 yards and seven touchdowns through six weeks. His 24.2% target share leads all members of the Chiefs' offense and ranks second in the league, trailing only Mark Andrews as the top target earner amongst tight ends. Kelce will continue to be the focal point of Mahomes' high-valued delivery and could reclaim his throne as the TE1 from Andrews by the end of the season.
Mahomes is hot on Josh Allen’s heels in the MVP race, matching the Bills quarterback with 17 touchdowns through the first six games. The cornerstone of the Chiefs franchise has recorded 1,736 passing yards, averaging 24.5 (QB4) fantasy points this season. Mahomes has 51 red zone passing attempts (8.5/G) which leads all quarterbacks, further increasing the weighted value of his throwing opportunities. The Chiefs quarterback could improve his overall production if the remaining receivers on the offense rise to the occasion.
If you want to follow this series throughout the 2022 season, check out the other episodes here: True Value Report: Vol.1, True Value Report: Unusual Suspects, True Value Report: Regression Candidates, True Value Report: A Surprise Team of True Value Misfits.
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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by Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.