Attention to exclusive and advanced analytics can give managers an advantage over the average competitor. However, the noise of unnecessary statistics can make the process of using advanced statistics quite intimidating. Here at Broto Fantasy, we aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the FF player by giving you every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.
In this recurring weekly series, we will highlight each of Broto Fantasy’s exclusive statistics and use these numbers to project player validity throughout the NFL season.
With two weeks of the NFL season in the books, let’s look at our exclusive True Value leaders.
TRUE THROW VALUE
True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback’s full volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Fantasy managers can essentially understand this as adjusted fantasy points per pass attempt.
Lamar Jackson - True Throw Value = 0.751
Josh Allen - True Throw Value = 0.741
Patrick Mahomes - True Throw Value = 0.657
Carson Wentz - True Throw Value = 0.629
Justin Herbert - True Throw Value = 0.594
The Spun
Lamar Jackson currently leads all quarterbacks with a TTV of 0.751. Jackson has been red-hot to start the season, playing at an MVP trajectory with 531 passing yards and six touchdowns with a completion percentage of 64.4%. The Ravens' star quarterback is averaging 9.0 yards per attempt with a talented supporting cast anchored by second-year breakout receiver Rashod Bateman and the reigning king of the tight end position Mark Andrews.
Josh Allen is neck-in-neck with Jackson in the early-season MVP talks. Allen is completing a blistering 75.4% of his pass attempts through two weeks of the 2022 season, accumulating 614 yards and seven touchdowns. Allen is surrounded by the best-receiving weapons of his career, allowing him to support his incredible new-found accuracy with uber-talented pass-catchers all over the field.
True Throw Value would not be a reliable barometer for quarterbacks unless Patrick Mahomes cracked the list. Mahomes is spreading the ball throughout all field levels now that the Chiefs are without Tyreek Hill to stretch defenses down the sideline. Mahomes has attempted 74 passes this season, completing 73.0% of his attempts for 595 yards and seven touchdowns, including a five-touchdown performance against the Cardinals in Week 1. The Chiefs’ generational gunslinger has repeatedly proven that he is of the most talented and valuable assets in all of fantasy football.
Carson Wentz is a surprise name in our top five rankings to begin the season. However, the newly-signed Commanders quarterback looks comfortable with his new team. Wentz has thrown seven touchdowns over his first two contests, completing 65.5% of his pass attempts for 650 yards. Wentz is upholding the value of multiple polarizing fantasy assets, with Curtis Samuel, Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, and rookie wide receiver Jahan Dotson enjoying impressive starts to their 2022 season.
Last but certainly not least, we have Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert rounding out our top five. Herbert has allocated his targets evenly throughout the first two games. In Week 1, seven members of the Chargers offense tied with a team-high four targets (Keenan Allen, DeAndre Carter, Gerald Everett, Austin Ekeler, Tre’ McKitty, Mike Williams, Josh Palmer). The following week three members of the offense received ten targets while Keenan Allen was sidelined (Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett). There is no reason to doubt the fantasy relevance of the offensive weapons, with Herbert firing on all cylinders and delivering one of the more valuable balls in the league.
TRUE TARGET VALUE
A derivative of True Throw Value. True Target Value analyzes a player’s quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their quarterback’s True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable said player’s targets are. The higher the value, the more projected points.
Ja’Marr Chase - True Target Value = 10.36
Stefon Diggs - True Target Value = 9.25
Christian Kirk - True Target Value = 8.37
Davante Adams - True Target Value = 7.60
Amon-Ra St.Brown - True Target Value = 7.44
Ja’Marr Chase has continued his destruction of NFL defenses and record books into his second season, earning 25 targets for a 28.4% target share. Chase has amassed 15 receptions for 143 yards and one touchdown over the first two games of 2022. He currently leads the league with 100.0% route participation, running a designed route on all of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks. Chase has already accumulated six red zone targets, further increasing the value of his opportunities. Managers can expect more of the same from this once-in-a-lifetime generational talent.
Stefon Diggs is the lone viable target-hog on the Bills' offense, showing a rapport and connection with Josh Allen that cannot be understated. Diggs currently ranks third in the NFL with a 34.3% target share, hauling 20 receptions for 270 yards and four touchdowns in only two contests. Diggs has minimal competition for targets this season and could very well lead the NFL in all receiving categories. He appears to be on a trajectory reminiscent of Cooper Kupp’s triple crown-winning season in 2021.
Christian Kirk is earning every penny of his insane offseason contract thus far. The Jaguars receiver is benefiting greatly from the drastic second-year improvements of quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Through two games, Kirk leads all Jaguars receivers with a 26.5% target share, recording 12 receptions for 195 yards and two touchdowns. Kirk is in a prime position to put up career-best numbers and should remain near the top of the True Value ranks as long as Lawrence continues to climb them.
New team. No problem. Davante Adams is walking proof of the old analytic adage that targets are earned, not given. Adams is acquiring a 32.9% target share to begin the season, catching 12 passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns. The former Packers receiver is transferring his all-pro talent to a new offense with ease, leading the Raiders in all receiving metrics across the board. He may have a downgraded quarterback but there should be no doubt about Adams' ability to produce, regardless of who is delivering his targets.
The Sun God rises. Amon-Ra St. Brown joins Michael Thomas and Antonio Brown as the only two receivers in NFL history to catch eight or more passes in eight consecutive games. St. Brown is a consistently elite producer, proving that his fourth-round draft capital was a major oversight by every NFL team. The second-year wideout has a 33.8% target share through the first two games, recording 17 receptions for 180 yards and two touchdowns. There appears to be no end to St. Brown’s rapid ascension to stardom.
TRUE AIR YARDS
The total amount of yards a pass traveled before getting to the receiver, adjusted for the completion probability of the throw. This allows us to see how many air yards a player receives while removing variables like hail mary plays, last second heaves, etc.
Chris Olave - True Air Yards = 150
Jaylen Waddle - True Air Yards = 132
Davante Adams - True Air Yards = 129
Tyreek Hill - True Air Yards = 123
CeeDee Lamb - True Air Yards = 118
DK Nation
Chris Olave topped Broto Fantasy’s Week 3: Buy Low and Sell High column as an overlooked player on the precipice of a massive rookie breakout. Olave’s True Air Yards are an excellent indicator of the proposed breakout. The opportunities for massive production amidst a team-leading target share are undeniable. Unfortunately, the Saints rookie also ranks first in Unrealized True Air Yards, meaning there is a lot of meat left on the bone on which the young star can feast. Olave has earned 22.5% of the Saints’ targets this season, proving he is constantly open, whether five yards or 45 yards downfield. The breakout is imminent. It is merely a matter of when not if.
Jaylen Waddle catapulted to the top of the True Air Yards list after the Dolphins' monumental comeback against the Ravens in Week 2. Waddle saw 19 targets in Week 2, catching 11for 171 yards and two touchdowns. Although his high ranking may be inflated, Waddle’s early season successes as the number two option cement a notion we have iterated for quite some time here at Broto Fantasy: Tua Tagovailoa can support multiple fantasy-relevant options.
Davante Adams' sheer volume of targets throughout the first two weeks has him firmly ranked within the top five of True Air Yards. The Packers utilized their all-pro wideout in a myriad of ways but began to keep him closer to the line of scrimmage as Aaron Rodgers aged and Matt LaFleur took over the play-calling reins. Now with the Raiders, Adams is free to roam wherever he may please and is seeing more deep targets as a result.
The second Dolphins receiver to grace our True Air Yards list is the cheetah, Tyreek Hill. Hill and Waddle complement each other perfectly as two of the fastest outside receiving threats the NFL has ever seen. Defenses appear lost when dealing with the duo of burners, allowing the veteran Hill and second-year Waddle to find deep looks at ease as opposing defenses struggle to match the receivers step for step. Expect many long touchdown catches in both of these stars' futures.
CeeDee Lamb’s third-year breakout has been temporarily derailed by the loss of Cowboys franchise quarterback Dak Prescott. However, Lamb is finding his own offbeat path to relevant production despite a lesser quarterback at the helm. It is worth noting that these waters are not unfamiliar for Lamb, as he caught passes from four different quarterbacks in his first season. The third-year wideout enters Week 3 with a 31.0% target share as the Cowboys' new alpha receiver. His increase in opportunities is undoubtedly encouraging for when Prescott inevitably returns this season.
TRUE PLAYER GRADES
A composite grade based on current year production that evaluates past performance while analyzing trends to predict future production.
Stefon Diggs - True Player Grade = 99.9 (A+)
Jaylen Waddle - True Player Grade = 99.2 (A+)
Tyreek Hill - True Player Grade = 98.8 (A+)
Cooper Kupp - True Player Grade = 98.7 (A+)
Amon-Ra St. Brown - True Player Grade = 98.2 (A+)
“Zero RB” drafters REJOICE! The top five leaders in True Player Grade to begin the 2022 NFL season are five stunning receivers with upwards trajectory (top seven with Michael Pittman and Justin Jefferson).
Stefon Diggs is averaging 35.5 PPR PPG in two contests, the most of any wide receiver in NFL history through the first two games of a season.
Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill set the record for most PPR points in a single game by two wide receivers on the same team in Week 2. The tandem of speedsters combined for 82.1 PPR points against the Ravens.
Cooper Kupp hit the ground running in 2022 after his record-breaking season in 2021. Kupp has caught 24 of his 29 targets through two games, allotting 236 receiving yards and three touchdowns on a league-leading 38.2% target share.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 29.9 PPG (WR4) to start his second season in the NFL. The former fourth-round selection has proven that he can co-exist alongside other strong talents like D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson. He should continue his destruction of NFL defenses for the entirety of the 2022 season.
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.