Welcome to the Clay’s DFS Plays for Week 3! Each week I’ll identify DFS plays and stacks to try to help you “bink” that GPP or smash in cash games! Let the #printfest begin for Week 3!
Week 3 Draftkings
Games to target:
1. BUF @ MIA - 53 O/U
Implied totals: BUF 28; MIA 25
2. KC @ IND – 49.5 O/U
Implied totals: KC 28; IND 21.5
3. JAX @ LAC - 47.5 O/U
Implied totals: JAX 20.25; LAC 27.25
4. LAR @ ARI – 50.5 O/U
Implied totals: LAR 27.25; ARI 23.25
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterback
Josh Allen ($8,200)
Josh Allen has eight touchdowns this season and is lighting the fantasy world on fire. Allen now draws the Miami Dolphins whose offense is operating on all cylinders and riding high on an insane comeback victory and 6 TDs for Tua Tagovailoa. This game has the makings of a shootout. In 8 career games against Miami, Allen has thrown for 21 TDs and has rushed for four more.
Lamar Jackson ($8,000)
Lamar was crushing last week until Greg Roman and crew called the dogs off prematurely. Lamar passed for 318 yards with three TDs and rushed for 119 yards and a rushing score. In two career games against New England, Lamar has passed for 412 yards with three TDs and tallied 116 rushing yards with two rushing TDs.
Patrick Mahomes ($7,900)
Patrick Mahomes gets the job done regardless of who is at wide receiver for the Chiefs. Through two games, Mahomes has seven passing TDs. He now gets a matchup with the dazed and confused Indianapolis Colts team that was sliced and diced by Trevor Lawrence. Expect another big week from Mahomes.
Jalen Hurts ($7,600)
After his masterful performance on Monday night football, Jalen Hurts has moved up to the 3rd highest odds to win MVP. The Hurts hype is real and you will be hurting if you leave him out of your lineup this week. Hurts punished the Minnesota Vikings with two rushing and one passing TDs last week and now draws a weak Washington Commanders defense that just allowed Jared Goff to walk all over them to the tune of 256 passing yards and four TDs. It’s going to be a long day in D.C. for Commanders fans.
Matthew Stafford ($6,500)
Matthew Stafford provides salary relief if you really want to pay up elsewhere this week. Stafford squares off against an Arizona Cardinals defense that has given up the most passing TDs and the 2nd most passing yards this season. Expect a big week for Stafford.
Running Back
Kareem Hunt ($6,600)
The Kareem Hunt recommendation didn’t work last week, although it should have. Hunt was subbed out twice for Nick Chubb in the red zone which led to Chubb scoring three rushing touchdowns. I’m dialed back in this week in the hopes people are scared off by his performance last week.
D’Andre Swift ($7,200)
D’Andre Swift is just a beast. He already has three combined touchdowns on the season and is ripping off huge runs on a weekly basis even with an ankle injury. Clearly the Minnesota Vikings Week 1 defensive performance was smoke and mirrors. They currently rank 9th in rushing yards allowed and after Swift is done with them, they will rank much higher. Swift is quickly becoming a cash lineup staple.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,300)
CEH is finally catching passes and running well. The Kansas City Chiefs have a 28 implied point total and I’d be shocked if CEH doesn’t get in on the scoring party. Don’t worry about Jerick “dead legs” McKinnon, CEH doubled McKinnon’s target share and rushing share last week.
David Montgomery ($5,900)
As ugly as the Chicago Bears offense has been, David Montgomery is still the not-so-little engine that could. Montgomery has a 21.4 percent target share on the season in addition to a 71.1 percent rushing share. Hopefully, Montgomery stays greedy and maintains his large workload, choo choo!!
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,600)
Sports Illustrated
All hail the Sun God! Amon-Ra St. Brown is scorching NFL defenses. The Sun God is at a 33.8 percent target share, fending off DJ Chark and TJ Hockenson to lead the Lions. The only thing that can stop ARSB is Jared Goff coming back down to earth, but he has been dialed in to start the season. ARSB will be leaned on again as the Lions square off against the Vikings with an over/under of 53.5.
Christian Kirk ($6,200)
HC Doug Pederson has been able to bring the best out of Christian Kirk. At the moment, Kirk is sporting a strong 25 percent target share and averaging 9 targets per game. It also helps that the Jacksonville Jaguars are tied for 10th in plays per game, so opportunities should continue to be aplenty for Kirk. He’s another cash game staple.
Tight End
Travis Kelce ($7,900)
I liked Evan Engram against the Indianapolis Colts last week and even though he didn’t score, he still had 7 receptions for 46 yards. Now, that same defense gets Travis Kelce. Kelce was handled by Derwin James last week, however, the Colts have no such defensive threat. The Colts rank as the 8th best TE matchup per Broto’s True Matchup Rank.
Tyler Higbee ($4,500)
Tyler Higbee was once hyped to be a top-tier TE, only to let everyone down. Now, Higbee has had a renaissance, averaging 10 targets per game and recording a 26 percent target share so far this year. I expect his good numbers to continue in a matchup with the helter-skelter Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are the 9th best matchup for opposing TEs and were horrible against TEs last season, so Higbee should continue to eat.
D/ST
Chicago Bears ($3,800)
Yes, $3,800 is expensive, but it buys you the number one defense in pressure percentage at 41.3 percent. Conveniently, the Houston Texans rank 11th in pressure percentage allowed and are tied for 5th in most sacks allowed. Expect a big day from the Bears defense.
Tennessee Titans ($2,800)
I understand the skepticism about starting a defense that was just pummeled by the Buffalo Bills, however, Buffalo is probably the best offense in the league at the moment. Tennessee gets a home game against a Los Angeles Raiders team traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast. Love this spot for the Titans’ defense to get back on track and save some cash.
Favorite stacks:
1. Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins
2. Matthew Stafford + Cooper Kupp and/or Tyler Higbee
3. Tua Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill and/or Jaylen Waddle with Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis bring back
4. Jared Goff + Amon-Ra St. Brown and/or D’Andre Swift with Justin Jefferson or Irv Smith bring back
5. Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs and/or Gabe Davis with Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle bring back.
GPP Plays:
1. QB Lamar Jackson ($8,000)
With each big play, Lamar Jackson increases the size of his next contract. Perhaps Greg Roman and crew won’t call the dogs off early this game against New England. Jackson has had games of 21.2 and 48.6 DraftKings points the past two weeks and I expect Lamar to punish the Patriots mediocre defense.
2. RB Dalvin Cook ($7,900)
So far in Minnesota, it’s been all about the passing game. However, with Kirk Cousins’ Jekyll and Hyde ways, maybe Kevin O’Connell lets Dalvin Cook win the game for the Vikings. The Detroit Lions rank as the 9th best matchup for opposing running backs. This is more of a game theory play.
3. RB Joe Mixon ($7,600)
After an ugly week two, I expect a bounce-back week for Joe Mixon. With the offensive line woes, HC Zac Taylor may feed Mixon, especially with the New York Jets ranking as the 2nd best matchup for opposing running backs according to True Matchup Rankings.
4. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,200)
Don’t care if he’s popular, you can create unique builds around ARSB.
5. WR Cooper Kupp ($9,900)
Kupp makes a great GPP play because he is flat-out expensive. I believe that will deter many from wanting to roster Kupp, dropping his ownership percentage below where it should be.
6. WR Mike Williams ($6,700)
Mike Williams boomed last week with Keenan Allen out to the tune of 8 receptions for 113 yards and a TD. The Chargers draw a home game against Jacksonville and absolutely need a win to keep pace with the Chiefs. Look for Big Mike to lower the boom again this week.
6. TE Gerald Everett ($4,400)
Gerald Everett is coming off a 10-target performance against the Kansas City Chiefs last week. If Keenan Allen misses again, we could see another volume week for Everett. Volume + pass first offense = TE success.
7. TE TJ Hockenson ($4,200)
TJ Hockenson is the ultimate leverage play against Amon-Ra St Brown and D’Andre Swift. He also gets the 7th best matchup for opposing TEs in the Minnesota Vikings. Certainly not a play for those faint of heart but it could pay huge dividends.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
1. Chris Olave ($4,500)
Chris Olave has 321 air yards along with a huge 20.1 aDOT. The talent-ridden New York Giants weren’t able to take advantage of Carolina’s poor secondary last week, however, if Jameis Winston and Olave can connect for a few deep shots and vault Olave over the 10-point threshold.
Have a great Week 3 of DFS! Go win big!!
By Clayton Jones
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.