With Week 2 of the NFL season in the books, Broto Lead Writer Matt Ward and writer Clayton Jones have their eyes on three buy low targets and three sell high targets heading into week 3!
Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!
BUY LOW
Chris Olave WR - New Orleans Saints
Bleacher Report
Chris Olave earned 13 targets in Week 2, garnering 307 total air yards and an average depth of target of 21.92 yards, the highest single-game total of any rookie in the NFL’s Next Gen era. Olave’s cumulative air yards total is more than any player recorded thus far this season and ranks third all-time behind Mike Evans (2016) and Marquise Brown (2021). The rookie's monstrous amount of deep opportunities translated to only five receptions for eighty yards. Fortunately, this may open up a buying window for a first-year star on the rise. Impatient managers may foolishly view Olave’s lack of early-season production amidst increased targets as a negative. However, the young receiver’s team-leading snap share and rising volume are heavily encouraging. He sits as the front runner for all Saints receivers over their last two contests, leading the team in snap percentage and route participation while allotting a target share of 20.2%. Michael Thomas is inarguably the number one threat on the Saints offense in his veteran role. Olave is locked in as the 1(B) alongside Thomas, evident by playing in all two-WR sets for the Saints instead of Jarvis Landry in Week 2. A breakout appears imminent as the rookie progresses throughout his inaugural campaign. Managers won’t have to wait long until Olave’s opportunity is met by his tremendous talent. Move quickly as the window to capitalize on one of the league’s brightest young stars is rapidly closing.
Matt Ward
Elijah Moore WR - New York Jets
Several fantasy managers and sports pundits are hitting the panic button on second-year wideout Elijah Moore. The arrival of another star receiver in the form of top-10 draft pick Garrett Wilson has minimized Moore’s once-promising ceiling. The Jets have recorded 104 pass attempts over the last two contests with elite veteran quarterback Joe Flacco at the helm. Moore has earned just 12 Targets (11.53%) in that time. What the panicked few refuse to acknowledge is the second-year wideout currently leads all Jets offensive members in snap percentage, route participation, and expected fantasy points. The opportunities are knocking on the doorstep. Moore’s targets will inevitably revert to his career norm. The second-year wideout may not be the low-end WR1 we were hoping for. Still, Moore remains an elite talent in a budding offense that can finally support multiple fantasy-relevant options.
Matt Ward
George Kittle TE - San Francisco 49ers
Let me start by saying that we wish Trey Lance a speedy recovery. On Sunday, Lance sustained a season-ending right ankle fracture. With that unfortunate injury comes fantasy football ramifications that must be discussed. With Lance out for the season, Shanahan’s favorite QB Jimmy Garoppolo is back under the center for the 49ers, making it a perfect time to buy star Tight End George Kittle.
As someone who has Kittle on their roster, I know how frustrating his injuries continue to be for fantasy managers. However, with Jimmy Garoppolo back at the helm, Kittle should retain his role as an elite TE1 as soon as he steps on to the field. Kittle had a 27.5% targets per route run last season with Jimmy G at QB. He also sustained a strong target share of 24.9% even with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel sharing the field with him. The TE landscape is barren and TE production has been nonexistent to start the season. You now get an opportunity to buy low on a top-5 TE who just received an upgrade at QB. Go get George Kittle now.
I would just like to add that while I focused on George Kittle, I advocate buying the entire 49ers passing game, in general. Target the owners who are 1-1 or 0-2 and try to pry away George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel.
Clayton Jones
SELL HIGH
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB - Kansas City Chiefs
The first two games of the 2022 season have embraced Clyde Edwards-Helaire like a warm hug from a once-forgotten friend. Edwards-Helaire is off to a blossoming start, amassing 192 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns over the Chiefs’ first two contests. Although the surface stats may seem appealing, the former first-round pick is not being utilized as a true RB1. Edwards-Helaire has just 22 touches so far this season, playing fewer snaps than Jerrick McKinnon in Week 1 and Week 2. His fantasy points are currently being propped up by unsustainable career-highs in efficiency despite maintaining his career lows in usage. Edwards-Helaire has a mere 42.0% opportunity share and 36.0% route participation in the first two games, per PFF. McKinnon, on the other hand, sits ahead of Edwards-Helaire with a route participation of 39.2% and has vultured several high-value touches from his teammate once the Chiefs have made it inside the five-yard line. A committee approach by the Chiefs could eventually lead to regression in Edwards-Helaire’s scoring totals.
Matt Ward
Damien Harris RB - New England Patriots
Leaving Damien Harris in your weekly starting lineups is like leaving a toddler alone with a pack of permanent markers; they simply cannot be trusted. Harris has long been a touchdown-dependent plodder with minimal receiving upside and is continuing that trajectory to begin the 2022 season. Harris saved fantasy managers in Week 2 from another lackluster performance by finding his way across the scoring plane against the Steelers. Harris has combined for 24 carries and 115 yards in the first two weeks with only four catches for 26 yards through the air. His value hinges on unpredictable touchdown output on a Patriots offense that has struggled to find the red zone so far this season. A strong Week 2 showing and the continued demise of handcuff Rhamondre Stevenson may be the sufficient selling ammo needed to rid yourselves of the headache that is the Patriots' backfield while maintaining a decent enough return to stay competitive throughout the season.
Matt Ward
Courtland Sutton WR - Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos offense has been underwhelming to say the least to begin the 2022 season. They have scored a total of 2 TDs in 2022 against the underwhelming Seattle and Houston secondaries. Courtland Sutton has been a bright spot, totaling 18 targets through two games, but has yet to find the endzone. He had a nice 7 reception 122 yard performance against Houston which has fantasy players hyped up about his prospects, making this the perfect time to sell. I understand that it is just two weeks into the season and Russell Wilson is learning a new offense, but I am concerned that is just the Broncos offense and we are never going to see a top tier offense like we hoped for in the offseason. If Jerry Jeudy misses this coming week with the rib injury sustained on Sunday, you could wait another week for Sutton to accumulate even more fantasy value, however, if Jeudy returns and the offense struggles again, you could miss your selling opportunity.
Clayton Jones
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By Matt Ward and Clayton Jones
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.