Attempting to predict outcomes in the NFL can seem fairly easy when looking at it from a macro view. Anyone who follows the league can point out that one team may have a good offense and their opponent may have a bad defense, but if that's all there was to it, the exhilaration we feel from watching football every Sunday would cease to exist. When you zoom in on any game you’ll see the individual battles taking place all over the field. These are often where the real story is told, so let's dive into some of the Pro Football Focus data on matchups between Wide Receivers and Defensive Backs that could really tip the scales in week three.
Golden Opportunity WR of the Week
Robert Woods vs Oakland Raiders
2021’s number one seeded Tennessee Titans have gotten off to a putrid start this year and their new pass-catcher Robert Woods is no exception. That being said, the Raiders coming to town will give Bobby Trees a fantastic opportunity to right the ship. Oakland does not have a good defense in general, but Woods will get the additional benefit of lining up against CB Amik Robertson for the majority of his snaps. Robertson is currently sporting a 54.4 career PFF coverage grade and is projected to guard Woods for 25 snaps. PFF has Robert Woods as one of only three WRs with a perfect 100.0/100.0 matchup advantage in week three. It is hard to imagine a better situation for him to go nuclear.
‘Better Luck Next Time’ WR of the Week
Marquise Brown vs Los Angeles Rams
Marquise Brown is the go-to guy for Arizona while they wait out Deandre Hopkins’ return from suspension. This could end up being problematic from a fantasy perspective, as the Cardinals will face off against their divisional rival the Los Angeles Rams this week. Brown is coming into the game with a 64.8 PFF receiving grade and will have to spend much of the game against Jalen Ramsey in coverage. There is a common misconception that Ramsey doesn't shadow WRs in this Rams defense. While he is not a shadow corner from week-to-week, he spent 7 games in shadow coverage in 2021, typically coming when the opposing offense had one major pass-catching threat that they needed to shut down. For Example, Ramsey followed D.K Metcalf in all three of his games against Seattle, covering him on 71.1% of his routes. Shadow coverage aside, PFF projects Brown to be covered by Ramsey on 36 snaps just based on each of their average alignment breakdowns. Ramsey has the size, the skill and the speed to keep up with Brown. All reasons why PFF is giving Marquise Brown an unfortunately low 29.6/100.0 matchup rating this week.
Dogfight of the Week
Terry McLaurin vs James Bradberry
Jerome Miron - USA Today Sports
It is important to remember that not every WR/CB matchup is going to be lopsided. That is okay because the matchups that feature two evenly skilled players can be very entertaining and will often provide insight on how to project players going forward. Terry McLaurin and James Bradberry’s Week 3 matchup is a perfect example. These players are nearly identical in size, they are division rivals and are having a similar start to their season. Scary Terry’s 64.4 PFF grade is only slightly above Bradberry’s 62.6. McLaurin lines up on the offensive left (defensive right) more than half of the time he is on the field, which is where Bradberry has lined up for 73% of his snaps. One player being able to step up in this type of slugfest can have a butterfly effect on opportunity and/or game scripts for all other fantasy relevant players on the field. The matchup could even be the difference in the game. While this makes it harder to predict who will have more success in the dogfight, it is also what makes watching the NFL so much fun.
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By Taren Caravella
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.