SLEEPERS
TE: Evan Engram (JAX)
Evan Engram acts as the Jaguars' secondary receiving threat behind Christian Kirk, with veteran wideouts Zay Jones and Marvin Jones playing decoy on the outside. The former Giants tight end led all members of the Jaguars offense with eight targets (26.6%), topping the team with seven receptions for 46 yards in their stunning upset over the Colts. The offense is utilizing Engram all over the field this season, allotting 44 snaps from the slot position to the tight end during the first two games. His 80.6% route participation ranks second on the team and ninth overall in the NFL. Kirk currently leads the offensive unit in all receiving categories, with the fifth-year tight end closely behind. Engram enters Week 3 with a receiving slash of 10 REC/12 TGT/74 YDS, averaging 1.53 points per target (TE11), and will look to build on his Week 2 usage moving forward. Engram is a high-volume play with touchdown upside in a game where the Jaguars are expected to play from behind against a top-tier Chargers offense.
Matt Ward
WR: Marquise Brown (ARI)
Marquise Brown is on the verge of a WR1 breakout for the Cardinals and Week 3 appears to be the prime time to capitalize. Brown and the Cardinals are fresh off the heels of a chaotic comeback overtime win against the Raiders. The stunning speedster led the offense with 11 targets (22.44%), catching six passes for 68 yards. The Cardinals new WR1 has participated in 100.0% of the team’s passing plays, tied for first in the NFL while ranking sixth in total routes with 87. The man they call “Hollywood” is currently averaging 1.47 yards of separation per target, according to the excellent database at Matt Harmon’s ReceptionPerception.com. The Cardinals draw a difficult in-division matchup against the defending Super Bowl champions in Week 3. Although the prospect of being shadowed by Jalen Ramsey seems intimidating on paper, it is worth noting that the Rams' secondary has struggled out the gate, conceding 42.1 PPG to opposing WRs, equating to 38.9% over their allotted average. Brown is averaging a respectable 13.9 PPG. A 38.9% increase in production would amount to 19.3 points if he plays up to his potential. This game between NFC West rivals has high-scoring shootout written all over it, making Brown a must-start receiver with top-12 positional upside.
Matt Ward
QB: Derek Carr (LV)
When the Las Vegas Raiders sent over a 1st and 2nd rounder during the offseason for Davante Adams, an 0-2 start to the season was most definitely not what they had in mind. The same can probably be said for fantasy managers who went out and drafted Derek Carr to helm the QB1 spot for their fantasy teams. While the start to the season has been shaky so far, fear not as this Raiders team contains some of the highest offensive potential of all the teams in the league and should only continue to improve as their chemistry and season progresses.
Derek Carr started the season with a solid performance against the Los Angeles Chargers where he threw for nearly 300 yards and a couple touchdowns. The real downfall for his fantasy value were the 3 interceptions the Chargers snagged, which ended up forcing him into a QB17 finish on the week, making him a solid QB2 play. In Week 2 against the Cardinals, Carr returned much better value for the fantasy managers who started him. While he actually threw roughly 50 less passing yards than he had against the Chargers, he made up for it by eliminating all of his turnovers. Cleaning up his interception numbers while still throwing for 250+ yards and 2TDs helped lead him to a QB8 finish on the week.
Carr now gets a vulnerable Tennessee defense here in Week 3 after getting their brakes blown off by the Bills on Monday Night Football after previously losing in a brutally close game against the Giants in week one. The defensive unit has been almost non-existent and plenty of fantasy points have been scored against them through two weeks. This shouldn’t be much of a surprise as the Titans had a pretty middling defense last year as well. On a short week to boot, the Titans look like the perfect defense for Carr, Adams and Co. to dismantle this coming week.
Boyd Armstrong
RB: Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF)
In standard 49ers fashion, we have found ourselves looking at Jeff Wilson Jr. as the starting running back once again. There must be some curse on the Niners running back room as this is the third straight season where injuries have given Wilson the opportunity to carry the load after starting the season as a second or third string player. After starting running back Elijah Mitchell suffered a sprained MCL in Week 1, rookie running back Tyrion Davis-Price followed suit and suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 2. This leaves the Niners with Wilson, undrafted rookie Jordan Mason, and the ghost of Marlon Mack as the only healthy backs left on the roster. For translation: Jeff Wilson Jr. should be a workhorse in Week 3.
The only two players to record a running back snap in Week 2 were Wilson and Davis-Price. At this point Jordan Mason has only taken special teams snaps and Marlon Mack was not on the active roster or even on the team longer than a week ago. As a result, Wilson was on the field for 50% of the snaps leading to 18 carries for 84 yards and 2 catches for an additional 19 yards in Week 2. These stats were equivalent to 11.3 Half-PPR points and an RB14 finish on the week. Heading into Week 3, Wilson continues to have zero true competition for snaps or touches and should get plenty of work. The 49ers are slated to face off against the Denver Broncos who are currently the 7th worst matchup for running backs, allowing a 24.9% decrease in points over average to the position. The reason this should not be a worry is because they have faced the Seahawks and the Texans to start the season. Not only are these two teams arguably the worst two teams in the NFL but they also only ran the ball a combined 28 times against the Broncos. The numbers are not fully reliable because of the lack of rush attempts. Vegas currently has the 49ers as a 1.5 point favorite on the road, meaning they are expected to keep the game close while maintaining a favorable game script. If this rings true, Wilson should see 20+ carries in an always-efficient run scheme. The delicious cherry on top is that with Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter instead of Trey Lance, there should be extra rushes to go around and less chance for vulturing TDs in the red zone. Wilson should be put into Week 3 lineups with confidence as a solid RB2 with RB1 upside.
Nick Beaulieu
BUSTS
TE: Mike Gesicki (MIA)
Mike Gesicki appears to be an afterthought of the Dolphins offense, with new head coach Mike McDaniel favoring his star-studded duo of deep threats in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The organization refused to pick up the fifth-year contract option of the former second-round pick this offseason and is continuing to mistreat the talented tight end into the 2022 season. Gesicki has played only 71.4% of the offensive snaps through the first two games, losing valuable playing time to relatively unknown tight end Durham Smythe. Gesicki has earned a measly five targets this season, catching all his opportunities for 42 yards and one touchdown. His route participation ranks 28th amongst tight ends at a lowly 49.4% clip. If Gesicki’s minimal usage and production were not enough to scare you away this week, perhaps his defensive matchup will. The Dolphins face off against the Bills in Week 3, arguably the most imposing defense for offensive matchups, regardless of position. The Bills are conceding just 4.4 PPG to tight ends this season, equating to -48.8% of the expected average for the position. Gesicki will have to overcome his minimal usage against the NFL’s best defense to return value on your rosters this week. Those are two propositions I am not willing to gamble on.
Matt Ward
WR: D.J. Moore (CAR)
DK Nation
D.J. Moore has been one quarterback away from his breakthrough into WR1 territory for his entire career. Unfortunately, the addition of Baker Mayfield was not the quarterback upgrade managers had been hoping for. The Panthers' offense is sputtering to begin the season, with Mayfield completing 30 of 50 pass attempts for 380 yards in two contests. Moore has earned 12 targets through two games, catching six for 86 yards. The fifth-year wideout recorded his first touchdown of the season in Week 2, meaning he may only have three more left in the tank, if history plans to repeat itself once more. The Panthers matchup against a familiar NFC South foe in the Saints in Week 3. The Saints defense is among the best units in the NFL, allowing just 201.5 passing yards per game, effectively shutting down Tom Brady’s aerial assault in Week 2. Moore will draw the shadow treatment of lockdown corner Marshon Lattimore in this divisional class. The star defender has helped the Saints defensive unit to allow just 22.7 fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season. I expect a low-scoring game between two stellar defenses wherein Moore gets snuffed out of the stat sheet by one of the league’s top man-to-man defenders.
Matt Ward
QB: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
Through two weeks of the NFL season, we have already seen “A Tale of Two Tua’s” as the young Miami quarterback has had two completely polar opposite performances to kick off the year. To start the year against the New England Patriots, Tua turned in a shaky fantasy performance for the managers who took a shot on him in drafts. He threw for over 250+ passing yards but was only able to throw one touchdown which anchored his weekly finish at the QB22 spot. On the flip side, one week later against the Baltimore Ravens, Tua erupted into pure fantasy football gold. Tua threw for a career high 469 passing yards (nice) and 6 touchdowns as he put up over 40+ fantasy points which cemented him as the overall QB2 on the week.
While Tua showed the immense upside he has to offer in Week 2, he still has a long way to go before he can be considered a must start QB option. He has tremendous weapons at his disposal and a path to fantasy success but he will carry with several shaky and inconsistent weeks. Expect some incredibly high highs and some pretty disappointing valleys when he faces high quality defenses.
Unfortunately for Tua’s fantasy managers, the Bills defense may just be the highest quality defense in the league. Through the first two weeks, the Bills defense held both Matt Stafford and Ryan Tannehill to finishes outside the Top 24 QBs. That is the definition of lockdown. Through two games they are tied for a league leading 5 interceptions and have gotten consistent pressure despite not blitzing often. While Tua just had his best game of his career, I would be looking at a long list of other options to stream over him this week. It’s simply not Tua Time… for now.
Boyd Armstrong
RB: Damien Harris (NE)
Damien Harris is currently sitting at RB18 overall after two weeks of the season, averaging 11.3 PPG on the season in Half-PPR scoring. While these numbers are solid for a manager’s RB2 or flex spot on the surface, the numbers do not tell the whole story. The Patriots were in a losing game script for the entirety of Week 1. As a result, Harris toted the ball only 9 times for 48 yards and caught 2 passes (on 3 targets) for 10 yards. A measly 6.8 Half-PPR points en route to an RB42 overall finish. Things changed for Harris in Week 2 when the Patriots were winning, and recency bias may have managers thinking he is worthy of a starting spot in fantasy lineups - he is not.
Remaining in a positive game script throughout his Week 2 matchup versus Pittsburgh, Harris rushed 15 times for 71 yards and caught both of his targets for an additional 16 yards. He also rushed for a touchdown. This totals15.7 Half-PPR points, an RB4 overall finish on the week. The issue here is that Vegas is currently listing the Ravens as 2.5 point favorites on the road, meaning the Patriots are expected to be playing from behind. If this rings true, Harris could and most likely will have his workload minimized due to the Patriots playing catch up and passing far more than running. While the Ravens have been nothing more than average vs the running back position in 2022, Harris is a risky play regardless. With his lack of pass catching and need to find the end zone weekly in order to produce strong results, he is a poor man’s Nick Chubb without the hyper-efficiency keeping him afloat. He is a touchdown-dependent flex play at best this week and should be kept out of your lineups.
Nick Beaulieu
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.