Welcome back Broto Bettors. We had a more down than up Week 2 but we learn from the down weeks and they make us better bettors (pun intended) going forward. What makes it hurt more is some misfortune getting in the way of possible wins. Miami’s insane comeback and Trey Lance’s unfortunate injury kept us away from two wins. Primetime Kirk Cousins came back to bite again and make me eat my words. I will never again be hurt by him in Primetime again. He is banned. On the plus side, the Lions took care of business and we had some TD scorers find paydirt. We live and we learn but now it's time to bounce back in Week 3!
Bills @ Dolphins o52.5 (-110)
The Bills offense is absolutely on fire. Scoring 72 points against the Rams and Titans so far and I see no reason why the Dolphins will hold them back. Although the Dolphins held the largely uninspiring Patriots offense to just seven points in Week 1, they gave up a whopping 38 points to the Baltimore Ravens last week while scoring 42 points of their own. QB Tua Tagovailoa had 6 total TD’s utilizing both of his top tier WR options, as well as Mike Gesicki in the red zone for an all out well-balanced attack. With these two hot offenses I expected this line to be closer to the 55 point range, so I am very comfortable at 52.5.
Ravens -2.5 @ Patriots (-115)
The Ravens hung us out to dry last week, but we can blame a lot of that on their heavily banged up secondary. With at least a few key pieces of the defense expected to return to the gridiron this Sunday, I like Baltimore to bounce back after last week’s heartbreaker. The Patriots have been a lethargic offense, failing to score more than once against Miami in Week 1 and just barely squeaking out a win against an equally boring Pittsburgh Steelers team. The Ravens will have their way with the Patriots this week and comfortably win by more than a score.
Rams @ Cardinals o48.5 (-110)
I will be in attendance at this game, so there may be some bias here. Who doesn’t love a good over? Bias aside, the defending champions are still a strong offensive team despite a slow start against the Bills, a game in which they gave up 31 points. The Rams scored 31 points of their own against the Falcons in Week 2, while also allowing 27 points against. Long story short, this team can score points and is susceptible on defense. The Cardinals are in a similar boat, having surrendered 44 points to the Chiefs in Week 1 and 23 to the Raiders in Week 2. Arizona managed 21 and 29 points respectively despite going long stretches in those games without a score of their own. I’d take this line all the way up to 51 or so, so 48.5 is a no brainer.
Packers ML @ Buccaneers (+100)
This is a classic value play. With Mike Evans suspended for this week and Chris Godwin trending towards missing another game, I like the value that a resurgent Packers team has at even money. I have nothing bad to say about the Buccaneers except that they failed to produce on offense all of last week for the majority of the game, and a pick-six made the score look more lopsided than it was. The Packers always start slow, and they looked excellent against the Bears on Sunday Night. For the value provided, this is the correct play, but no lock. Bet cautiously!
49ers -1.5 @ Broncos (-110)
Jimmy G is back at the helm of this offense, which means we know exactly how it operates. The 49ers are a much better football team than the Denver Broncos, who frankly look terrible so far. The only reason this line is so close is because the game is at Mile High Stadium in Denver, or else it would be closer to a five-point spread. Russell Wilson has looked terrible through two games against what should’ve been far inferior opponents. I like the 49ers to win by more than one point rather comfortably.
TD Scorers
Jaylen Waddle- MIA (+145)
Waddle has shown a propensity for finding the endzone over the first two weeks, and with a high over/under in this game, expect to see some more high value targets for the Alabama product from his former college teammate.
Jalen Hurts- PHI (-120)
Rinse, repeat. Hurts is an RB as much as he is a QB when the team is inside the 10-yard line (sometimes from further out). Betting this weekly will result in a season-long profit so long as the line hovers around -150.
D’Andre Swift- DET (+105)
SI.com
Until further notice, Swift at plus-money to score is an autoplay. He is tearing up the field on the ground and through the air, and his after-the-catch big-play ability has set him apart. We tried to chase the goal line carries from Jamaal Williams last week for better odds, but with how well this offense is producing, Swift is the safer bet.
Amon-Ra St. Brown- DET (+110)
Currently, with six consecutive games with 8+ catches and a TD (NFL record), this one also makes too much sense at plus-money. ARSB First TD Scorer is also +1000 for a very fun and realistic sprinkle.
Saquon Barkley- NYG (-120)
We missed him last week by a few inches. Giants fan Schiz says Saquon will light up Dallas on Monday Night. Ride with me if you’d like (will also be on Giants ML).
FADE: Jonathan Taylor- IND (-155)
His lines have not yet shifted to reflect how bad the Colts offense has been. He failed to find the endzone against Jacksonville and barely found a way against Houston. The offense has failed to use him in more seemingly obvious situations than can be counted. Until that team shows that they are not complete trash, this is likely one to avoid.
That’s all folks! Happy betting. As always, hit me up if you have any questions about a play @michaelschissel on twitter!
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By Mike “Schiz” Schissel
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.