Bettors are furious. Week 2 was full of underdog upsets and backdoor covers. 8 underdogs covered the spread or won outright, including some shocking comebacks by the Dolphins and Jets. There aren’t many big favorites worth teasing this week, so hopefully the trend continues in our favor this time.
Atlanta Falcons (+1) @ Seattle Seahawks O/U: 41.5
ESPN
The Atlanta Falcons are a decent team that blow leads and fail at the end of inconceivable comebacks. Nothing has changed. Even though they’ve only thrown to their generational tight end Kyle Pitts a measly 10 times this year, they’ve managed to keep the offense fun. Rookie WR Drake London is shining early and faces a Seahawks team that ranks 32nd in the league in defensive dropback EPA/Play. If you only looked at their final stats, Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo weren’t especially dominant against Seattle, but their efficiency was immaculate. Both games also saw two WRs - Jerry Jeudy/Courtland Sutton & Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk - post respectable fantasy finishes. Marcus Mariota is set to smash this week with two great receiving options at his disposal. That’s not even counting their electric WR/RB/Returner hybrid Cordarrelle Patterson who broke out in a big way last season and leads their backfield this season.
The Falcons aren’t the only team with an offensive advantage, though. Their defense is 31st in EPA/play against the run. Unfortunately for the Seahawks though, they rank just 28th in the league in rushing EPA. I am not convinced they will be able to run well enough to break the teaser. Per Broto’s coaching trends, Pete Carroll’s Seahawks are only running on 35.9% of plays, 27th in the league. They’re 9th in pass percentage when leading, and 3rd when tied. A small sample size including a blowout loss to the 49ers could explain this, but nothing is pointing to Seattle focusing on the run as much this year. They would need to move away from their stellar receivers and focus on pounding the rock to gain any sort of advantage this week and I don’t see them doing it enough to win by two scores. This line was a lot more teaser-friendly earlier in the week and it looks like the sharps are also on the Falcons. You can still tease by 6.5 or 7 points to bring the Falcons to +7.5 depending on what spreads you get on your books.
Themi’s Teaser: Falcons +7.5
Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) @ New York Giants O/U: 39
I don’t care that this is a historic rivalry, it’s an awful game for Sunday Night Football, even if Dak Prescott was playing. The Giants are the luckiest and worst undefeated team left in the league. They survived in Week 1 thanks to a missed Titans field goal attempt and beat a bad Panthers team by 3 points in Week 2. With a point total this low, we could see a similar game to Thursday’s Steelers-Browns mess, but hopefully without the last second defensive touchdown.
This is a game that will be decided by the Cowboys defense. If they can pressure Daniel Jones and just put together a few respectable scoring drives, covering this spread should be easy. Per Pro Football Reference, Daniel Jones is being pressured on a league-high 36.6% of his dropbacks. Cooper Rush is tied for 9th at 29.2% but the Giants pass-rush has not converted much of their pressure into actual sacks. The Cowboys have, bringing Joe Burrow to the ground six times in a close win in Week 2. The pass rush is the Cowboys bread and butter and they will face off against significantly worse skill position players. RB Saquon Barkley may lead the league in rushing yards but he hasn’t been used much as a pass-catcher, and Sterling Shepard and Richie James lead the team in targets. Dallas limited the Bucs to just 19 points. Even with banged up weapons at the time, Tom Brady and Mike Evans are better than this mess of a Giants offense. Divisional games always seem to feature upsets, but a win is not necessary for Dallas. Covering +7.5 is a high-probability outcome. Lines are moving to +1 for the Cowboys, so you may need to tease 6.5 points instead of 7. I don’t recommend +7 since many books grade pushes on teaser legs as a loss.
Themi’s Teaser: Cowboys +7.5
If Justin Herbert Plays…
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Chargers (-7) O/U:47
Doug Pederson has turned the Jaguars around. They may not be nearly as good as in 2017 - When their elite defense nearly carried them to the Super Bowl - but they’re making the best of Trevor Lawrence’s sophomore season. The Jaguars are 2nd in the league in DVOA, and are top-10 in both offensive and defensive EPA/play. They are beginning to look like a great underdog bet this week against the Chargers, especially with QB Justin Herbert dealing with a rib injury. The sharps disagree. Lines have continued to move in LA’s favor, even beginning to cross 7 points on some books. The point total is dropping too so every point matters and teasing becomes even more valuable. This all makes sense when you break down the season the Jaguars are having. Statistically they have been dominant but much of that came from stopping the run and playing against the Colts without Michael Pittman. I am excited to see what Lawrence can do as the season progresses but this is a real test here in Week 3.
The Jaguars defense on the other hand, were carved up by the Commanders in Week 1 With an arsenal of weapons at his disposal, Herbert can do just as much damage as Carson Wentz and likely much more. The Chargers continue to beat themselves but I’m more concerned with their actual performance and less on these narratives. LA is11th in both offensive and defensive EPA and were close to beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead. Herbert threw the game-losing pick six when targeting TE Gerald Everrett who was indicating he needed to get off the field. This is something they will have to learn from. Take the better team down to a moneyline and let's hope the underdogs take it easy on us this week.
Themi’s Teaser: Chargers -1
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.