Attention to exclusive and advanced analytics can give managers an advantage over the average competitor. However, the noise of unnecessary statistics can make the process of using advanced statistics quite intimidating. Here at Broto Fantasy, we aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the FF player by giving you every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.
In this recurring weekly series, we will highlight each of Broto Fantasy's exclusive statistics and use these numbers to project player validity throughout the NFL season.
With four weeks of the NFL season in the books, let's look for potential regression candidates using our exclusive True Value rankings.
TRUE THROW VALUE
True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback's full volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Fantasy managers can essentially understand this as adjusted fantasy points per pass attempt.
Carson Wentz - Washington Commanders
The Ringer
True Throw Value: 0.408
Rank: QB25
Carson Wentz began the 2022 season on a high-scoring rampage, topping the inaugural True Value Report as the QB4 in True Throw Value with a 0.629 rating. The Commanders quarterback has since regressed by over .200 points in True Throw Value, falling below the QB2 range at QB25. Wentz's early-season heroics were propped up by an unsustainable scoring streak that saw the former Eagles quarterback toss seven touchdowns in the first two weeks of the 2022 season. His four-game average of 19.7 PPG (QB9) is a mirage of declining production buoyed by a small sample size of two outlier games of high-end production. Wentz has only one passing touchdown with two interceptions through Week 3 and Week 4. The Commanders' offense appears to be an aberration of what they showed the fans in the opening weeks. Managers can expect Wentz to continue his regression as a middling QB2 in True Throw Value as the season sample size grows.
Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals
True Throw Value = 0.362
Rank: QB30
Kyler Murray has long been able to sustain QB1 overall production in any given week due to his incredible rushing output and propensity for big plays downfield. It saddens me to report that Kyler has rushed for just 91 yards this season (22.7 YPG). His big play magic has yet to be seen in 2022, with the electric quarterback attempting a sluggish 16 passes over 20 yards this season with a cumulative air yards total of 956, ranked QB22. The pint-sized phenom is averaging 21.2 PPG (QB6) through four contests despite being held on a short leash by the mind-numbing play-calling of head coach Kliff Kinsbury. The Cardinals are seemingly content with Kyler remaining in the pocket, negating his most lethal ability as a scrambler. An unexpected decline in Kyler's rushing production coupled with his despicable QB30 rank in True Target Value could lead to unfortunate regression for the miniature menace. It is not time to panic on Kyler as an every-week starter in your fantasy lineups. Still, managers should temper expectations until they see more creativity out of Kingsbury's offensive play calling.
TRUE TARGET VALUE
A derivative of True Throw Value. True Target Value analyzes a player's quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their quarterback's True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable said player's targets are. The higher the value, the more projected points.
Amari Cooper - Cleveland Browns
True Target Value = 3.20
Rank: WR45
Amari Cooper recorded back-to-back performances among the top-10 wide receivers, scoring 25.1 (WR9) and 23.1 (WR7) in Weeks 2 and 3. Those performances are sandwiched by a WR79 and WR90 performance in Weeks 1 and 4, where Cooper amassed a combined receiving slash of 4 REC/10 TGT/26 YDS/0 TD. His inconsistencies as a viable fantasy starter will not be masked while Jacoby Brissett delivers him targets. The Browns' interim quarterback has a True Throw Value of 0.374 (QB28), attempting just 31.8 passes per game (23rd). The offensive approach for the Browns remains simple and pure: Run the football. Volatile opportunities will lead to volatile production for Cooper. The veteran wideout remains capable of the spike-week output he is infamous for against cupcake matchups but will continue to regress amidst the Browns' horrendously inefficient passing metrics.
Diontae Johnson - Pittsburgh Steelers
True Target Value = 1.91
Rank: WR81
Regression is bearing down on Diontae Johnson like the rising tide of an errant tsunami crashing into the shore. Johnson's ability to separate against even the most elite defenders has garnered the fourth-year wideout a 29.3% (WR11) target share this season. Unfortunately, the route running magician is being held back by an abysmal WR81 (1.91) True Target Value. Johnson is averaging 11.7 PPG (WR43) through four contests despite his top-12 opportunity share at the position. The Steelers elected to bench the man delivering those low-value targets, substituting Mitchell Trubisky for first-round rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett. The Steelers' change at quarterback coincided with the unstoppable rise of rookie wide receiver George Pickens. Pickett targeted Pickens on 33.0% of his dropbacks after taking over for Trubisky mid-game in Week 4. An increased snap share for Pickens combined with a rookie quarterback's erratic and rushed development is a disastrous pairing for Johnson. Any decline in his team-high target rating would lead to a further drop in his disappointing PPG averages. His True Target Value suggests he cannot maintain a high production ceiling without a massive opportunity share.
TRUE AIR YARDS
The total amount of yards a pass traveled before getting to the receiver, adjusted for the completion probability of the throw. This allows us to see how many air yards a player receives while removing variables like hail mary plays, last-second heaves, etc.
Curtis Samuel - Washington Commanders
True Air Yards = 86
Rank: WR66
Curtis Samuel is the next member of the True Value Report with cause for concern. Samuel has the lowest cumulative True Air Yards total of any wide receiver with more than 30 targets this season. The short-yardage threat has accumulated 86 True Air yards in four games on 37 targets. For perspective, Diontae Johnson has matched Samuel's total of 37 targets this season with a cumulative True Air Yards rank of WR11 with 206. The shifty wideout is lethal with the ball in his hands and the Commanders are force-feeding him with easy looks on a True aDOT of 2.3 yards. Samuel's candidacy as a declining producer is a causality of his quarterback residing on the regression list.
TRUE PLAYER GRADES
A composite grade based on current year production that evaluates past performance while analyzing trends to predict future production.
Jonathan Taylor - Indianapolis Colts
True Player Grade = 73.4 (C+)
Rank: RB8/30th OVR
Jonathan Taylor is averaging 12.6 PPG (RB23) despite a 77.0% opportunity share (RB9). The reigning RB1 has 81 rushing attempts for 328 yards, adding nine receptions for 44 yards in the first four games. The Colts' offense is out of sync, scoring a league-low 14.3 PPG with just 87.8 team rushing yards per contest. The offensive line has not made things easy on Taylor as the lead back. The Colts' front five are producing a run blocking grade of 48.9 on Taylor's carries, ranked 42nd amongst running backs. The third-year star remains one of the most talented young players in the NFL but should likely be valued as a mid-range RB1 rather than a top-3 positional asset in 2022.
Darren Waller - Las Vegas Raiders
True Player Grade = 54.2 (D-)
Rank: TE3/62nd OVR
This series aims to explain the process of Broto's exclusive analytics and their connection to your fantasy rosters. Darren Waller's current ranking as the TE3 in True Player Grade is founded on a near-unprecedented history of sustainable and elite production. With that said, his current True Player Grade of 54.2 (D-) and overall ranking of 62nd overall helps paint a more complete picture of his future outlook. The Raiders tight end is averaging 9.9 PPG (TE1), bridging on irrelevance's precipice. Waller has earned 24 targets with 16 receptions for 175 yards and one touchdown this season. He has only one game with more than five receptions while watching his 2021 target share of 24.2% dwindle alongside Davante Adams to a rate of 16.4%. Waller is earning a mediocre target share as the fourth option on a middle-ranked offense. The veteran tight end is likely staring down the barrel of a career-low season as the Raiders allocate touches to Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Josh Jacobs.
Najee Harris - Pittsburgh Steelers
True Player Grade = 45.7 (F)
Rank: RB21/75th OVR
Najee Harris' value as an RB1 in fantasy is disintegrating like a sand castle in a hurricane. Every exclusive statistic used at Broto Fantasy told us that a reduced opportunity share for Harris in 2022 would be disastrous for the inefficient plodder. The Steelers lead back received a ridiculous league-leading opportunity share (86.4%) as a rookie, allowing consistent production despite being one of the least efficient rushers in NFL history. In 2021, Harris was the first player since 2012 to record over 300 rushing attempts and finish with a negative Rushing Yards Over Expected rating. His ineffective north-south style has caught up to the Steelers' second-year running back. Harris' opportunity share decreased to 79.3% in 2022 with just 11.3 PPG (RB27). The former first-round pick averages a laughable 3.5 yards per carry, amassing 202 rushing yards on 58 attempts. His target share has face-planted to 8.7% (RB28), leaving little room for upside as a receiver. Harris is hitting a sophomore slump with no signs of recovery in sight.
If you want to follow this series throughout the 2022 season, check out the other episodes here: True Value Report: Vol.1, True Value Report: Unusual Suspects.
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.