Clay's Corner: DFS Plays for Week 5

Welcome to the Clay’s DFS Plays for Week 5! Each week I’ll identify DFS plays and stacks to try to help you “bink” that GPP or smash in cash games!

In my second year writing this series, last week was probably my best week ever. Some plays that I recommended last week:

- Dameon Pierce: 28.9 DK points

- Jamaal Williams: 26.9 DK points

- Austin Ekeler: 34.9 DK points

- Rashaad Penny: 31.7 DK points

- CeeDee Lamb: 21.7 DK points

- Marquise Brown: 20.8 DK points

- TJ Hockenson: 42.9 DK points

Cheers to another strong week! Let the #printfest begin for Week 5!

Week 5 Draftkings

Games to target:

1. LAC @ CLE – 47.5 O/U

Implied totals: LAC 25.25; CLE 22.25

2. DET @ NE – 46.5 O/U

Implied totals: DET 21.25; NE 24.75

3. ATL @ TB - 48.5 O/U

Implied totals: ATL 20; TB 28.5

4. HOU @ JAX – 44.5 O/U

Implied totals: HOU 18.75; JAX 25.75

Top Cash Plays:

Quarterback

Justin Herbert ($7,100)

DraftKings

The Chargers are back? Well, at least offensively, they seemed to return to form last week. Herbert has provided three top-10 QB performances on the early season and should provide another one here as he squares off against Cleveland. The Cleveland Browns rank as the seventh best matchup for opposing QBs per Broto’s exclusive stat: True Matchup Rankings. While on the surface, the Browns’ 15.9 PPG allowed to the QB is 18th in the NFL, they have allowed 36.7% points over the average score of the players that they have faced. You can find this stat exclusively on the Fantasy Football by Broto app in the Apple App Store and Google Play Store!

Jalen Hurts ($8,100)

The weather really ruined Jalen Hurts’ fantasy output last week. Luckily, Hurts draws the Arizona Cardinals this week, who have allowed the 10th most passing yards and are tied for the third most passing touchdowns allowed. Additionally, the Cardinals are top-10 in completion percentage allowed and yards per attempt. Hurts will get back on track for his MVP candidacy this week.

Tom Brady ($6,000)

It’s not my favorite Van Halen and Sammy Hagar song, but “It’s About Time” is the most appropriate track for Tom Brady this week. He gets Mike Evans and Chris Godwin back and his infamous 28-3 foe, the Atlanta Falcons, at home. Brady has struggled mightily lately but a matchup against the Falcons with his weapons back seem like just the remedy. Atlanta has allowed the eighth most passing yards and the forth highest completion percentage allowed (69.1%) so far this season. Even better, the Falcons are the best True Matchup Ranking for opposing QBs, allowing 68.6% points over average.

Running Back

Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,500) or Damien Harris ($5,600)

With potentially no Mac Jones in Week 5, the New England Patriots most certainly will want to “establish it” and there is no better opponent for opposing running backs than the Houston Texans. Houston is the best True Matchup for opposing running backs, giving up nearly double the fantasy points over average then their opponents to the same players. The Texans just defibrillated the Los Angeles Chargers’ lifeless offense and I anticipate something similar for the Patriots offense.

Nick Chubb ($8,000)

Two things that haven’t changed since last season:

A) Nick Chubb is one of the best running backs in the league

B) the Los Angeles Chargers are a run-funnel defense

The Chargers currently rank as the fifth-best True Matchup Ranking for opposing running backs and Dameon Pierce just ran wild on the them last week for 131 yards on 14 rushes and a TD. Now just imagine what Nick Chubb can do to them this week…

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($8,900)

Washington Post

Justin Jefferson is averaging 9.5 targets, 6.3 receptions, 98.3 yards and 0.5 TDs vs. the Chicago Bears in four career games. In two home games vs. the Bears, Jefferson is averaging 105.5 receiving yards. Jefferson is going to dominate this feeble Bears secondary in a game where Minnesota has an implied total of 25.5 points.

Tyreek Hill ($8,000)

Just because Tua Tagovailoa is out does not mean that Tyreek Hill can’t produce. Hill had seven targets from backup Teddy Bridgewater compared to Jaylen Waddle’s two in the limited sample size of Week 3, so there is no reason to not expect both players to be heavily involved in the offense. Waddle is also a solid play here.

Tight End

Tyler Conklin ($3,700)

Even with the change at QB, Conklin still demanded five targets, a 13.5% target share, and played 81% of the snaps for the Jets. The Jets are playing up-tempo football, Currently ranked third in plays per game, averaging 72.3. A cheap tight end on a play-heavy and fast offense demanding a nearly-14% target share at the TE position makes Conklin cash-worthy.

Dallas Goedert ($4,700)

Although the rain impacted the passing game, Dallas Goedert did earn a 24% target share last week. The formula for tight ends in cash is simple: targets + play heavy offense = cash game tight end. The Eagles are averaging 71.3 plays per game: 5th best in the NFL. Goedert makes an excellent cash game play this week, especially since the Arizona Cardinals are the eighth ranked True Matchup for opposing tight ends.

D/ST

Philadelphia Eagles ($3,500)

I normally don’t advocate for road teams or expensive defenses, however, the Eagles are the exception this week. Philadelphia ranks first in pressure rate and second in hurry percentage. The Cardinals are going to have to pass to win and I believe the Eagles defense will be ready to feast on turnovers.

Dallas Cowboys ($2,500)

How bout them Cowboys…..defense? The Dallas front four are torching their opponents. Dallas ranks second in pressure rate and third in QB knockdowns per pass attempt and we just witnessed Matthew Stafford get ambushed by the 49ers defensive line . Micah Parsons and crew will be ready to make Matt Stafford’s life a living hell.

Favorite stacks:

1. Jalen Hurts + AJB and/or Devonta Smith/Dallas Goedert with Marquise Brown or Zach Ertz bring back

2. Tom Brady + Mike Evans and/or Chris Godwin with a Drake London or Kyle Pitts bring back.

3. Justin Herbert + Austin Ekeler and/or Mike Williams with Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt/Amari Cooper as a bring back.

4. Jeff Wilson + 49ers D/ST.

5. Derrick Henry + Titans D/ST

GPP Plays:

1. QB Tom Brady ($6,000)

CBS Sports

Do you remember the scene in Jurassic Park when Ian Malcolm was in the Jeep? Ian Malcolm looks at the muddy water in a dinosaur footprint and sees it vibrate and calls it an impact tremor. Shortly thereafter, Ellie Sattler and Robert Muldoon run to the jeep and everyone realizes it’s the Tyrannosaurus Rex coming and they speed off in the jeep. That T-rex is Tom Brady this week.

The Buccaneers have been running, trying to tread water with the multitude of injuries thrown their way, but now it’s time to take down their prey.

2. RB Alvin Kamara ($6,600)

The Seattle Seahawks just allowed 45 points to the Jared-Goff lead Detroit Lions. If anything is going to jump-start Alvin Kamara’s fantasy season, it’s this game vs. Seattle. The Seahawks rank as the sixth-best matchup for opposing running backs so far this season. Get Kamara in those GPP lineups!

3. RB Miles Sanders ($6,500)

If the Philadelphia Eagles passing game is going to be chalky, why not play Sanders as leverage? The Cardinals come in as the eighth best True Matchup for opposing running backs. Sanders could have another huge week in a game with an over/under of 49.5 points.

4. WR CeeDee Lamb ($7,000)

We are going back to the well with CeeDee Lamb. The LA Rams rank as the best True Matchup for opposing wide receivers, allowing 58.2 percent more fantasy points than players they faced average against other teams. So far this season, Lamb has been dominant statistically. He has a target share of 32.1 percent on the season and a WOPR of 1.551. Lamb is also fifth overall in opportunity share in the NFL (better than Justin Jefferson, Diontae Johnson and Jaylen Waddle). Cooper Rush should continue to pepper Lamb with targets in this game. Fire up the ol’ Walkman and play you C(ee)D(ee) this week in GPPs.

5. WR Chris Godwin ($5,900)

In his first game back from injuring his hamstring, Chris Godwin earned 10 targets. In nine games against the Atlanta Falcons, Chris Godwin has 9 touchdowns. Godwin is also averaging 5.4 receptions for 84.8 yards in those 9 matchups. This is a great spot for Godwin to pop in your GPP lineups.

6. Kyle Pitts ($4,400)

If Arthur Smith truly cares about winning, he will have to get the ball in Kyle Pitts’ hands. The Buccaneers rank as the fourth best True Matchup for opposing tight ends, giving up 76.6 over average. In a game with an over/under of 48 points, Kyle Pitts could be used heavily in a come-from-behind shoot out.

Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)

Zay Jones, last week’s pick, was out so I stay at 2-1.

1. George Pickens ($4,300)

After an Odell Beckham-like one-handed catch, everyone now knows George Pickens’ name. The Bills are one of the toughest defenses to face, yet Pickens will be needed to keep pace with the Blitzkrieg Bills offense. Pickens had a 30.8 percent target share last week and I expect Pickens to break the 10-point threshold this week.

Have a great week 5 of DFS! Go win big!

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By Clayton Jones