Attempting to predict outcomes in the NFL can seem fairly easy when looking at it from a macro view. Anyone who follows the league can point out that one team may have a good offense and their opponent may have a bad defense, but if that's all there was to it, the exhilaration we feel from watching football every Sunday would cease to exist. When you zoom in on any game you’ll see the individual battles taking place all over the field. These are often where the real story is told, so let's dive into some of the Pro Football Focus data on matchups between Wide Receivers and Defensive Backs that could really tip the scales in week five.
Golden Opportunity WR of the Week
DeVonta Smith vs Arizona Cardinals
DeVonta Smith has had an up and down start to his season with over half of his 266 total receiving yards coming in a week three thrashing of the Washington Commanders, a game in which he posted a 92.5 PFF grade. Luckily, he has another good matchup this week against the Arizona Cardinals. While Arizona is focused on containing Jalen Hurts and slowing down AJ Brown, The Slim Reaper has a good chance to fly under the radar and feast. Smith runs 79% of his routes from the outside and 50% of his routes on the right of the formation (defensive left). This is where Arizona CB Trayvon Mullen has been for 100% of his snaps. Mullen, with his 40.6 PFF grade, is giving up 2.22 yards per route run and has given up a catch every time he has been targeted so far this season. It does not stop there either, Marco Wilson (who’s 40.7 PFF grade is only marginally better than Mullen’s) will be tasked with covering Smith when he lines up on the offensive left of the formation. PFF is projecting DeVonta Smith to be covered by these two Corners for a combined 54 snaps.
‘Better Luck Next Time’ WR of the Week
D.J. Moore vs San Francisco 49ers
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but if you are like me and have been waiting for D.J. Moore to return to form, shield your eyes. In week four, D.J Moore will be tasked with trying to find space and production against a 49ers defense who’s 90.4 PFF coverage grade currently leads the NFL. Moore runs routes out of various alignments, but PFF projects him to see the taller, longer, Charvarius Ward for 23 snaps. Ward started off the year with his new team quite slowly, but has improved in coverage each week and is currently sporting a solid 80.1 PFF grade. Moore’s measly 38 Grade PFF matchup advantage is cause for concern, as he already seems a bit disgruntled with his new Quarterback Baker Mayfield, who is off to a horrific start.
Dogfight of the Week
Chris Godwin vs Dee Alford
Sporting News
Until his game-sealing interception in week 3 against the Browns, many people had likely not heard the name Dee Alford before. Well now is a good time for an introduction, as his name may start popping up more often. Alford is an undrafted free agent rookie Cornerback for the Atlanta Falcons. He currently holds an impressive 89.3 PFF grade. Alford plays almost exclusively in the slot, where he will be tasked with covering Chris Godwin in what is likely his toughest task yet. Albeit a small sample size, Godwin is currently posting the worst PFF grade of his career at 70.9. Tampa Bay needs Chris Godwin to produce in this matchup. They really struggled to get the passing game going in the two games that Godwin missed this season and the Falcons have been surprisingly feisty. If Atlanta is able to pull off an upset, this middle of the field matchup is going to be pivotal.
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By Taren Caravella
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.