SLEEPERS
QB: Derek Carr (LV)
Sports Illustrated
Derek Carr and the Raiders ran through the Broncos for their first win of 2022, topping their division rivals 31-23 in Week 3. The Raiders travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face another in-division foe, as Carr and company take on the Chiefs in Week 4. Betting lines have the implied scoring total set at 51.0 points, favoring the home city Chiefs by 7.0 with the highest over/under of Week 5 being this Monday Night Football showcase. Patrick Mahomes will have no issues surgically slicing through the Raiders defense, leaving Carr to play catchup in a fantasy-friendly game script between two talented offenses. The Raiders quarterback is averaging 17.0 PPG (QB12) in 2022, recording back-to-back top-10 performances in Weeks 2-3 before falling flat for 11.5 points (QB25) in Week 4. A low-scoring output for Carr against the Broncos is causing managers to fade the nine-year veteran in an exploitable matchup in Week 5. The Chiefs defense is an excellent opponent for a bounce-back performance into QB1 territory for Carr. The Chiefs are giving up 268.3 passing yards per game, ranked fifth-worst among NFL defenses this season. They are conceding 21.8 PPG to competing quarterbacks, allowing 46.9% Points Over Average (POA) with a True Matchup Rank of sixth overall for the position. Furthermore, the Chiefs defense has bottled up the rushing game of opposing offenses thus far, averaging a league-best 65.8 rushing yards per game. If the Raiders' offense expects to have success en route to their second win of the season, it will need to be through the air and at the hands of Derek Carr.
Matt Ward
RB: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
The Patriots' backfield is harder to navigate than trekking through the jungle with a plastic spoon. Fortunately for fantasy managers, Week 5 presents an opportunity to start Rhamondre Stevenson with virtually no risk. The Lions defense has more holes in it than a broken alibi with the team allowing a league-worst 35.3 points and 455.5 scrimmage yards per game. Stevenson’s position as the secondary back in a committee behind Damien Harris is becoming more of a misnomer as the season unfolds. Through four games, Stevenson leads the pair with a 52.2% snap share (129), and 11.9% target share (14), with just ten fewer rush attempts than his counterpart (43). The Lions allow 27.8 PPG to running backs with a POA of 79.7%, leaving plenty of room for the entire Patriots backfield to feast. The Patriots may be without their starting quarterback in Week 5 as Mac Jones deals with a high ankle sprain. Brian Hoyer took over for Jones in Week 4 but was quickly knocked out of the contest and into concussion protocol. Injuries allowed fourth-round rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe to call the shots under center in the Patriots overtime loss to the Packers. If the inexperienced and untalented Zappe is forced to start the offense will rely heavily on the rushing attack, making Stevenson a serviceable RB2 with top-12 upside.
Matt Ward
TE: Tyler Conklin (NYJ)
At this point in the season, Tyler Conklin should be on everyone’s radar as a solid streamer in the tight end wasteland. Conklin is coming in as the TE9 overall heading into Week 5 but is only rostered in 42% of ESPN leagues and 40% of Yahoo leagues. While he is certainly not the most flashy or exciting option out there, he is still averaging an above-average 8.9 Half-PPR points per game which should not be ignored. The intriguing part about this is that he is gaining these points on volume rather than touchdown dependence. Conklin is averaging 7 targets, 5 catches, and 48 yards on a per game basis. It should be noted that when Zach Wilson returned as the starting quarterback in Week 4, Conklin saw his lowest number of targets (5) and catches (3) of the season. He did, however, total his second highest yardage output of the season with 52 yards. The sample size is currently too small to be certain about how Wilson plans to utilize his starting tight end but expectations should be solid heading into Week 5 regardless.
In Week 5, the Jets face off against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are currently the second most favored matchup for opposing tight ends, allowing 13.9 PPG to the position alongside an astonishing 118.9% points allowed over average. With Conklin maintaining a chokehold on the pass-catching tight end role on the Jets, he should be looked to early and often in this game. He has led the team in tight end snaps (88%), routes (150) and targets (29) through 4 games. The next closest tight end in each category has recorded 27% of snaps, 33 routes, and 1 target. It is evident he is the only relevant tight end on this team and in a juicy matchup there should be little discomfort in throwing him in starting lineups.
Nick Beaulieu
WR: Curtis Samuel (WAS)
Easily one of the best picks at ADP to start the season, Curtis Samuel is the WR17 in half ppr leagues through the first four weeks. Samuel opened the year incredibly hot with back to back weekly performances of WR17 and WR12. During Weeks 3 and 4 of the season, however, Samuel finished as just WR42 and WR54, respectively. Expect that to change this week.
With the unfortunate news that rookie receiver Jahan Dotson is likely to miss the next two weeks, the Commanders will have to count on Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel as their main receiving threats. Despite playing less snaps than both Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel is leading the Commanders in target share at 21%. He has seen a minimum of 7 targets in every game and has hit 10+ twice. He has 10 more total targets than the next closest receiver, Terry McLaurin. Samuel also has rushing opportunities schemed for him to give his weekly floor an extra bump. He has been handed the ball 8 times on the season and has produced over 50 yards rushing. Riverboat Rivera clearly loves to utilize Samuel in a Deebo-lite role and Wentz looks more than happy peppering him with targets every game.
Furthermore, the Titans are allowing 46% points over average to opposing wideouts, which makes them the 2nd best True Matchup rank for wide receivers. The Tennessee defense is putridly gross and Samuel carries a lot of upside heading into week 5.
Boyd Armstrong
BUSTS
QB: Geno Smith (SEA)
Geno Smith managers are riding high after the castaway quarterback dismantled the Lions defense in a 48-45 shellacking. The journeyman field general tossed for 320 yards with two touchdowns, adding 49 rushing yards with another score. Smith is averaging 19.0 PPG (QB10) in his first four starts, with three of his fantasy performances ranking in the top 15, including a QB7 finish in Week 3. The Seahawks starting quarterback is being falsely ticketed as a “must-start” option heading into Week 5 while an important and underlying narrative is being overlooked. Smith’s two highest-scoring weeks of 2022 came against the number one and number two defensive matchups for quarterbacks. The Falcons and the Lions stand together as the worst defenses in the NFL in terms of stemming the fantasy production of opposing signal callers. Smith will not be afforded a similarly easy matchup in Week 5 when the Seahawks travel to face the Saints in hostile territory. The Saints defense is conceding a meager 203.5 passing yards this season, ranked 9th in the NFL. They have a POA of 1.6%, allowing just 13.2 PPG to opposing quarterbacks. Smith’s opposing matchup excels at shutting down all areas of the passing game with a POA of -8.9% to quarterback’s passing production. Smith won't find any easy throwing lanes against the Saints vaunted secondary led by all-pro lockdown corner Marshon Lattimore and the ferocious honey badger that is Tyrann Mathieu. Expect a low-scoring affair from both teams in a defensive snooze-fest predicated on clock control and running the football.
Matt Ward
RB: Antonio Gibson (WAS)
Antonio Gibson teased his supporters in the opening week with his once highly-touted receiving ability, catching seven of eight targets for 72 yards. Gibson’s 130 scrimmage yards and 20.0 PPR points feel like a far-distant memory after four weeks of play. Gibson has fewer receptions in his previous three games combined than he compiled in Week 1. The third-year back has just six receptions for 29 yards since his season-high in the Commanders’ first game. Gibson’s upcoming matchup against the Titans is an unappealing place to look for week-winning upside. The Titans defense allows 15.6 PPG (-14.4% POA) to running backs with a True Matchup Rank of 23rd overall. Gibson is averaging 13.1 PPG (RB21) on a 60.0% opportunity share as the lead back. He is not receiving the volume as a rusher that is necessary to support such low receiving numbers. Gibson is a tough player to trust in Week 5 against a defensive unit that excels at minimizing the fantasy production of running backs.
Matt Ward
TE: Dalton Schultz (DAL)
Dalton Schultz broke out in 2021 seemingly out of nowhere and many expected him to follow that momentum into 2022. He performed as expected in Week 1 playing 100% of the snaps, catching seven of nine targets for 62 yards en route to a TE10 finish (9.7 Half-PPR points). Unfortunately for Schultz and his value, injuries have gotten in the way of his success. Starting quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a hand injury in the 4th quarter of Week 1 and is yet to play since. To keep it simple, backup quarterback Cooper Rush has not utilized Schultz the way Dak had in 2021. In the two games with Rush at the helm Schultz has seen 4 and 3 targets, respectively. This has correlated to just 2 catches for 18 yards and two finishes outside of the top-50 tight ends. Schultz had missed Week 3 due to an injury of his own but still managed to play 90% of snaps in Weeks 2 and 4. It seems that as long as Rush is throwing the ball, Schultz is nothing but a touchdown-dependent tight end who doesn’t have a historical affinity for the end zone prior to last season. The cherry on top is that the Cowboys are slated to play the Rams this weekend. They are currently the 2nd least favorable matchup for tight ends allowing 4 PPG and a negative 56.4% points over average to the position. Combining the already poor performance with arguably the worst matchup in the NFL, Dalton Schultz should be left on benches for Week 5.
Nick Beaulieu
WR: Diontae Johnson (PIT)
As a big Diontae Johnson fan, this bust piece breaks my heart to write but it feels very fitting. Despite another year of having a monster target share, Johnson has failed to crack 13 half ppr points in a single game this season, currently averaging a measly 8.8 fantasy points per game. His weekly game logs are even more depressing, with weekly finishes of WR40, WR35, WR29 and the WR75 in half ppr. That is comically horrendous for a guy who had a top 24 ADP heading into the year. Offensive TDs have been hard to come by for the underwhelming Pittsburgh Steelers offense and Diontae has felt this pain. This trend of low value targets and no TDs should continue for another week in a rough Week 5 game against the Bills.
The Bills defense has been incredibly tough all season and after four games, they are the #1 toughest true matchup rank for Quarterbacks, Wide Receivers and Tight Ends. All signs point towards “No” when it comes to whether or not you should have Diontae Johnson in your lineups this weekend. Maybe he scores his first touchdown of the season and finally cracks a top 24 weekly finish but after four weeks of not producing and now having a rookie quarterback starting in his first game against the toughest defense in the NFL, I will be pivoting off Diontae Johnson, as much as it hurts me.
Boyd Armstrong
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.