Two straight weeks of 2-1 puts us at 5-5 overall this season after a terrible start. To be profitable on 2-team 6-point teasers, you need to win over 72.37% of individual legs. We’re not close to that number yet but we’re climbing. Let’s keep rolling this week. We have plenty of options to consider in Week 5. Pick your favorites and make some money!
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers (-8) O/U: 41
Themi’s Teaser: Packers -2
ESPN
The Packers have not looked nearly as explosive on offense since losing star wideout Davante Adams in the off-season but they are improving. The Packers passing game is 19th in EPA/play but started the season without veteran WR Allen Lazard. This Green Bay offense is focusing more on the run this season which makes sense with talented RBs like Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon on the team. The Packers have always passed more than they ran under HC Matt LaFleur, but have become more run-heavy than ever this year. Per Broto’s coaching trends, the Packers are running 46.7% of the time, 9th highest in the league. Rookie WR Romeo Doubs has become a standout over the last couple of weeks as well and leads the team in targets and receiving yards.
The Giants defense is 24th in EPA against the run but 16th against the pass, which should work out well for the Packers. The Giants defense has also not really been challenged yet. Justin Fields and Baker Mayfield are looking like the worst QBs in the league and they kept their games against the Giants within a score.
Both of these teams are 3-1 but the Packers are actually good despite some offensive hiccups. The Giants are losing skill position players left and right and will need Saquon Barkley to carry this team if they want to win. One player can’t do it on his own. Tease the Packers down to a field goal.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns (+2.) O/U: 47
Themi’s Teaser: Browns +8
Draftkings Nation
It was hard to find good underdogs to tease this week but the Cleveland Browns were the best out there. This is going to be a battle between two terrible run defenses, a scenario reminiscent of Cleveland’s loss to Atlanta last week. The Browns have the best rushing attack in the league, leading all teams in rushing EPA. They are also 2nd in rushing yards per game. Lead back Nick Chubb is just 4 yards shy of taking over Giants RB Saquon Barkley for the league lead.
The Chargers, on the other hand, are last in the league in rushing yards per game and 27th in rushing EPA. The Chargers have been in negative game-scripts more than expected this season and they do not typically run in those situations. The Chargers have also faced off against some of the better run defenses in the league. All of their opponents are top-20 in defensive rushing EPA. This matchup against the Browns is a great opportunity for a continued bounce-back for a team that has been injured and unlucky.
WR Keenan Allen hasn’t played since Week 1 and will continue to watch from the sidelines. This dampers the Chargers aerial attack, although, they have gotten by throwing to Mike Williams, Josh Palmer, and Gerald Everett. The Browns are middle-of-the-pack against the pass but their opponents have been Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, Mitch Trubisky, and Marcus Mariota. They are in for a surprise this week with Justin Herbert.
I fully expect the Browns to lose but this line is just too large given the exploitable matchup against Los Angeles who still don’t have their top WR. QB Jacoby Brissett is also supporting a surprisingly potent passing game as he is currently 9th in EPA/play among QBs. This line opened at Chargers -3 but has since moved off of the key number. I will be on the side of the sharps with an expected Cleveland loss by less than 8.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) O/U: 43.5
Themi’s Teaser: Jaguars -1
CBS Sports
Davis Mills is 31st in EPA/play, only ahead of an atrocious Baker Mayfield and behind Justin Fields and Mitch Trubisky. The offense ranks 30th in DVOA and 29th in EPA/play. Although WRs Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins are having solid seasons on their own, the only thing keeping this team alive offensively is the run game. The Texans are 10th in total rushing EPA and rushing success rate. When you look at Jacksonville’s stats against the run, this seems like the best chance at success for Houston. The Jaguars are 4th in EPA against the pass but 16th against the run. Before their game against an unstoppable Philadelphia Eagles team, though, the Jaguars were 2nd in the league against the run.
Davis Mills is not a dual-threat QB. He has 22 career rushing attempts for 44 yards in 15 starts. Dameon Pierce is finding success this season as the team’s lead RB but the Eagles are able to deploy so many different talented RBs that teams can’t possibly defend against them while also trying to stop Jalen Hurts from passing or taking off with his legs. Davis Mills and the rest of the Texans do not offer this level of variety and Houston will suffer because of it. They may continue to be a scrappy team but they are no match for a Jaguars team that nearly beat the best team in the NFC.
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers O/U: 39.5
Themi’s Teaser: 49ers -0.5
NBC Sports
The San Francisco 49ers are a team with an excellent defense, strong offensive weapons and a QB who could be much better. You could try to say the same thing about the Panthers but they are much worse in each of those regards. Baker Mayfield is not anything close to an answer at the QB position. Per Pro Football Reference, Mayfield dead last in on-target percentage and tied for 5th in bad-throw percentage. He is also last among QBs in EPA/play and couldn’t even put up a decent statline against the Arizona Cardinals’ dreadful pass defense. There are no more excuses for this team. They stink.
The 49ers are favored by 6.5 in this game and should be closer to 10. Jimmy Garoppolo’s middling start to the season is the only thing holding San Francisco back and teasing them down to a victory by a single point is my favorite play all week.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) O/U: 51.5
Themi’s Teaser: Chiefs -1.5
Draft Network
This is a fascinating line. The Chiefs dominated the Buccaneers in Week4, a team that only allowing about 8 points per game heading into Sunday Night Football. The Raiders finally got a win after a frustrating start but it was against a Denver Broncos team that is looking worse than anyone imagined.
The Chiefs are 8th in team DVOA, 5th in offensive DVOA and are by far the best offense in EPA/play. It is no surprise that they have the best passing attack in the league despite losing Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins in the off-season. TE Travis Kelce is an unstoppable force down the middle, and Patrick Mahomes can turn any WR or RB into a scoring machine.
This Raiders defense, 23rd in dropback EPA allowed, is going to find it nearly impossible to stop Mahomes. Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Ryan Tannehill all had their best passing games against the Raiders. Divisional matchups can be messy but it’s going to take a lot of messiness to steal a win in Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs defense is just too solid to fall apart in this one.
The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start/sit tool, player cards, exclusive statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more!
Check out patreon.com/BRotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.
By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.