Welcome back Broto Bettors! Week 4 was kind to us. The Eagles covered, the Cowboys covered, even the New York Football Giants covered! We snagged two TD scorers as well and if it wasn't for a Pat Freiermuth tackle at the one yard line, we’d be swimming in cash. A positive day is always a win, and our process is getting sharper and sharper with more and more data. Let’s roll on into Week 5!
Systems Check: Our underdogs winning outright/favorites covering system that I discussed last week went 13-3 in Week 4, bringing the season total to 55-9. This is worth noting as we continue to get deeper and deeper into the season: Favorites have been covering, or underdogs have been winning outright. Taking underdogs with the points has largely been a losing strategy, even if the bet is hitting! We mentioned the Lions were responsible for 2 of the 6 losses last week and they accumulated another winless cover in Week 4. Another trend I was able to track is that several of the losses in this system have been the result of the dreaded 3.5 point hook. We will not fall victim to that nasty hook again!
Game Lines:
Giants ML (+295) @ Packers (London)
Consider this an unofficial play with great odds from your favorite New York Giants fan. Rodgers is self admittedly not playing well, the Giants are fired up to be 3-1 for the first time in a very long time and the game is in London which always makes for some crazy circumstances. Fire me up at +295.
Bills -14 vs Steelers (-105)
In the last 10 years, double digit favorites coming off of two losses ATS have nearly a 70% cover rate. The Bills lost outright to Miami and failed to cover a tight one against Baltimore last week. With the Steelers running a rookie QB under center in very hostile Buffalo territory, this has “blowout game'' written all over it.
Tampa Bay -9 vs Falcons (-110)
Tom Brady coming off back to back losses is never an opponent one wants to face. Atlanta is currently 4-0 ATS on the season, so there is some sway on them for a sneaky cover. Respectfully, I do not care. With the way Tom and Tampa have owned Atlanta in recent memory, I don’t see a way the Buccaneers don’t run away with this one. I would play this all the way up to 10.5 points.
Titans -1.5 @ Commanders (-110)
The Titans continue to be the most slept on team in the NFL because they lost a Week 1 bout to my New York Giants and then followed that with an abysmal showing against the Bills. It was a tough start but they are still a solid football team and Derrick Henry has proven to his early season haters that he is still a force to be reckoned with. The Titans are one of just a handful of teams with more rushing yards than passing yards on the season and there is no reason why that trend cannot continue this week. The division game narrative coupled with the Derrick Henry resurgence tells me this is not a game the Titans will lose. Ride with confidence!
49ers -6.5 @ Panthers (-110)
The 49ers keep burning me as I flip flop my opinion of them but their strong showing against the Rams solidified their defense as one of the top (if not the very top) units in the NFL. The Panthers have been a brutal watch all year and their offense is far too vanilla to make anything happen against Kyle Shanahan’s lockdown crew. The 49ers only need to score 2-3 times all game to make this happen in my mind. I am very comfortable with a TD or more margin of victory.
Ravens -3 vs Bengals (-110)
The Ravens have been a bit of a rollercoaster all year, losing close games to great opponents while allowing inferior opponents to keep games within reach. This is a division matchup in primetime and with both teams currently sitting at 2-2, this is a statement game. I like the Ravens to put their foot down at home. The biggest weakness for Baltimore has been their secondary but the weak Cincinnati offensive line might just leave the door open for the defense to keep Joe Burrow and his triage of WR threats from doing too much damage. Do not bet the hook on this if the line moves to 3.5. I will be pivoting to the over (47.5 as of right now, would play all the way up to 49) if the line moves that far, as both of these offenses have shown they can find the end zone.
TD Scorers and Props:
Deebo Samuel- Anytime TD/ Moneyline Parlay (FanDuel only) (+160)
The San Diego Union Tribune
Deebo is rolling and there is no reason for him to stop against the Panthers. Send it!
Jalen Hurts- Anytime TD Scorer (-105)
You know the drill. It hit last week and 3 of 4 games on the season. -105 is nearly even odds. Enjoy.
Lamar Jackson- Anytime TD Scorer (+135)
Broto Exclusive stat True Matchup Ranking says Lamar may be limited on rushing ability this week, but the Bengals are yet to face a true dual threat QB this season. He has hit in 2/4 games this season, so the odds have this in play. If he misses again we will adjust. Until then, rinse and repeat!
Mike Evans- Anytime TD/ Moneyline Parlay (FanDuel only) (+120)
Tampa is a 9-10 point favorite and Mike Evans is the favorite target for Tom Brady both in the red zone and elsewhere. With Cameron Brate battling concussion protocols and potentially being limited, Evans is the big body target for this squad. True Matchup Rankings show Atlanta as the 6th best matchup for WRs, so I am ecstatic about plus money for this prop.
That’s all folks! Let’s have us another great week. Hit me up on Twitter with any questions or plays!
The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start/sit tool, player cards, exclusive statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more!
Check out patreon.com/BRotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.
By Mike “Schiz” Schissel
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.