Attention to exclusive and advanced analytics can give managers an advantage over the average competitor. However, the noise of unnecessary statistics can make the process of using advanced statistics quite intimidating. Here at Broto Fantasy, we aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the FF player by giving you every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.
In this recurring weekly series, we will highlight each of Broto Fantasy’s exclusive statistics and use these numbers to project player validity throughout the NFL season.
With three weeks of the NFL season in the books, let’s look for some potential diamonds in the rough using our exclusive True Value rankings.
TRUE THROW VALUE
True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback’s full volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Fantasy managers can essentially understand this as adjusted fantasy points per pass attempt.
Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins
Michael Reaves/Getty Images
True Throw Value = 0.601
Rank: QB3
The “Throwin’ Samoan” Tua Tagovailoa is proving detractors wrong one uber-valuable pass attempt at a time. The third-year quarterback is off to a sensational start, averaging 22.4 PPG (QB6), completing a league-high 71.4% pass attempts with 925 yards and eight touchdowns through three games. Tua joined Patrick Mahomes as the only quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for over 400 yards with six touchdowns in a single game with less than 35 career starts during a Week 2 comeback win over the Ravens. The Dolphins signal-caller is flexing his deep ball accuracy while delivering targets to two of the league’s top speed specialists in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tua has used his duo of deep threats to his advantage, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt (QB2) this season. The Dolphins have built an unbreakable foundation for their young quarterback to succeed. Superbly talented weapons surround Tua with unmatchable speed at every position, as well as the best offensive-minded coach in all of football in Mike McDaniel. The promising third-year quarterback is in an excellent place to continue his early season dominance.
Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars
True Throw Value = 0.573
Rank: QB4
Even generational talents need time to develop. Trevor Lawrence suffered a lost season in his rookie campaign, albeit to no fault of his own or injury. The departure of franchise-killer Urban Meyer and the arrival of former Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson has lifted the former first overall pick to new heights. Lawrence looks comfortable and confident to begin his second season, throwing for 772 yards and six touchdowns in the first three games of 2022. The Jaguars have a new identity as a team to be taken seriously after knocking off the Colts and the Chargers in the past two weeks. Lawrence is supporting multiple fantasy-relevant options with a 69.4% completion percentage. The second-year gunslinger is averaging 19.4 PPG (QB10) and has all the potential to up those numbers as his development under a new regime continues.
Jared Goff - Detroit Lions
True Throw Value = 0.525
Rank: QB7
The Lions' offense averages 419.7 scrimmage yards per game (3rd) with a blistering scoring average of 31.7 points (2nd). A once highly touted but now long-forgotten castaway sits at the helm of that offense, captaining a ship of underdogs to the front of the ranks. Jared Goff is averaging 19.1 PPG (QB11) over the first three contests, throwing for 748 passing yards and seven touchdowns, including a four-touchdown torching of the Commanders in Week 2. Goff has benefited from standing virtually untouched in a clean pocket created by the league’s top offensive line anchored by the highest graded right tackle in the NFL: Penei Sewell. The continued dominance of the Lions' offensive front, coupled with the rise of Amon-Ra St.Brown, created a welcomed resurgence for the former Rams quarterback. Goff is playing the best football of his career during the first three weeks and could continue to surprise managers as long as the team remains healthy.
TRUE TARGET VALUE
A derivative of True Throw Value. True Target Value analyzes a player’s quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their quarterback’s True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable said player’s targets are. The higher the value, the more projected points.
Zay Jones - Jacksonville Jaguars
True Target Value = 6.30
Rank: WR7
The Jaguars' offensive weapons are thriving amidst Lawrence’s second-year breakout. One of the many benefactors to the young quarterback’s rise is veteran wideout, Zay Jones. Jones is averaging an eye-popping 14.1 PPG (WR29) in 2022, a far cry away from his preseason ADP of WR104. The big-bodied deep threat has earned a 22.6% target share through the first three games, ranking amongst the top 30 receivers in the NFL. His six red zone opportunities (6th) this season have buoyed Jones’ high target value. Lawrence is ascending into his generational label, giving Jones a valuable role as a favorite outside target and red zone threat.
Brandin Cooks - Houston Texans
True Target Value = 5.50
Rank: WR9
Always underrated and overlooked. Those two sentiments perfectly describe the Texans number one receiving threat despite a consistent resume of high-end production. Brandin Cooks entered 2022 after yet another impressive season the year prior, amassing his sixth 1000-yard receiving season in eight years. The veteran wideout leads all members of the Texans offense in receptions (13), targets (29 TGT/28.2%), and receiving yards (158). Unfortunately, Cooks has yet to find the endzone this season as the Texans continue to struggle on offense. Cooks remains on the wrong side of touchdown variance to begin the season, however, his True Target Value indicates an inevitable bump in production in the coming weeks.
Curtis Samuel - Washington Commanders
True Target Value = 5.20
Rank: WR12
Fantasy managers and sports pundits alike have long wondered what Curtis Samuel was capable of if he could remain healthy and on the field. Samuel is answering those questions with resounding production to begin the 2022 season. The former Panthers wideout is averaging 18.4 PPG (WR9) through the first three contests, posting a team-leading 23.6% target share (WR29). Samuel leads all Commanders with 22 receptions for 181 yards and two touchdowns, with more than 50.0% of his accumulated yards coming after the catch (91 YAC). Elite receivers earn targets. Samuel does more than that; he earns True Target Value. His incredible after-the-catch numbers and ability to take the short depth of target passes for significant gains supports his top-12 True Target Value. He is exceeding fellow receiving teammate Terry McLaurin in all metrics to start the year as the target hog on a pass-happy offense. Samuel’s health has always been a concern throughout his tenure in the NFL but his talent proves to be exceptional.
TRUE AIR YARDS
The total amount of yards a pass traveled before getting to the receiver, adjusted for the completion probability of the throw. This allows us to see how many air yards a player receives while removing variables like hail mary plays, last-second heaves, etc.
Chris Olave - New Orleans Saints
True Air Yards = 207
Rank: WR1
It’s time to wake up and remove the “sleeper” status from rookie wide receiver Chris Olave. The kid is a bonafide stud. Olave was a focal point of the inaugural True Value Report, citing his mind-boggling True aDOT and cumulative True Air Yards through two weeks. The Saints 2022 first-round pick continues to lead the pack in both categories with yet another stunning performance in Week 3 that saw the smooth separator earn 13 targets (31.7%), catching nine passes for 147 yards and 23.7 fantasy points (WR6). Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry have been able to coexist alongside the young star in the making but appear to be no threat to the rookies’ vastly increasing opportunity share. The erratic delivery of Jameis Winston will perpetuate a low floor of production for Olave but his ceiling as a WR1 has been cemented.
Courtland Sutton - Denver Broncos
True Air Yards = 170
Rank: WR5
When Russell Wilson said, “Broncos Country, Let’s Ride,” no one expected that ride to start with a head-first face plant into the cold hard ground of the mile-high city. The Broncos' offense has struggled to find the end zone in all three games of 2022, averaging a disgusting 14.3 PPG (30th). The one player that has been able to succeed on offense despite the putrid start to the Broncos' season is Courtland Sutton. The 6’2, 218 lbs alpha trails only Olave in deep targets this season (7) with a True aDOT of 6.1. Even more impressive is Sutton’s conversion rate on said targets. The veteran wideout has accumulated 170 Total True Air Yards in 2022, converting 73.5% of his deep attempts with a league-leading Realized True Air Yards of 125. Sutton has made the most of every opportunity, leaving a mere 45 Unrealized Air Yards on the table, second behind the current WR1 Stefon Diggs for all players with over 150 True Air Yards. The Broncos' offense will eventually start scoring closer to the league norm, opening up a potential increase in touchdown production for the highly-efficient receiver.
Marquise Brown - Arizona Cardinals
True Air Yards = 163
Rank: WR7
Marquise Brown catapulted up the True Value ranks after a dominant Week 3 performance where the Cardinals wideout corralled 14 of 17 targets for 140 yards and 28.0 PPG (WR3). Brown accomplished that stat line in the face of vaunted defensive back Jalen Ramsey who covered the speedy receiver on 92.6% of his routes, per PFF. The former Ravens receiver is enjoying a quietly productive start to the 2022 season as Kyler Murray’s new WR1. Brown is averaging 18.4 PPG (WR10) with 251 yards on 24 receptions and one touchdown. The Cardinals' offense as a whole has looked shaky and inconsistent to kick off the year. Still, Brown’s role as a high-volume separation specialist is locked and loaded until further notice (or when DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension).
TRUE PLAYER GRADES
A composite grade based on current year production that evaluates past performance while analyzing trends to predict future production.
Christian Kirk - Jacksonville Jaguars
True Player Grade = 93.4 (A)
Rank: WR8
As mentioned before, the entire Jaguars offense benefits from the continued development of second-year star quarterback Trevor Lawrence. No member of the offense is a more prominent benefactor than Christian Kirk. The former Cardinals wideout is averaging 20.9 PPG (WR7) while leading the Jaguars in all receiving categories. He has held up an impressive receiving slash of 18 REC/27 TGT/267 YDS/3 TD through the first three contests of the 2022 campaign. Kirk’s role as the Jaguars' primary receiving threat and Trevor Lawrence’s security outlet over the middle of the field should continue to deliver high-end production for managers throughout the season.
Drake London - Atlanta Falcons
True Player Grade = 89.0 (A-)
Rank: WR13
Drake London commanded an elite target share as soon as he stepped onto the field for the Falcons. The first-round receiver has earned a 32.9% target share in his first three games as an NFL pro, ranking fourth overall in the NFL. London sits behind Mark Andrews, CeeDee Lamb, and Cooper Kupp for the league lead in receiving opportunities, putting the first-year wideout in elite company to open up his career. London entered Week 3 with the highest cumulative target share for any top-10 rookie receiver in NFL history, continuing that stretch with a 30.0% target share in the Falcons matchup against the Seahawks. London has 16 receptions on 25 targets for 214 yards and two touchdowns thus far. It is safe to assume that London has yet to meet his peak as he is still only 21 years old. The heights the Falcons rookie could reach in 2022 are incredible if he can maintain the production shown in the first three games.
If you would like to follow this series throughout the 2022 season, check out the other episodes here: True Value Report: Vol.1
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.