Welcome to the Clay’s DFS Plays for Week 4! Each week I’ll identify DFS plays and stacks to try to help you “bink” that GPP or smash in cash games! Let the #printfest begin for week 4!!
Week 4 Draftkings
Games to target:
1. BUF @ BAL – 52 O/U
Implied totals: BUF 27.5; BAL 24.5
2. SEA @ DET – 49.5 O/U
Implied totals: SEA 22.5; DET 27
3. JAX @ PHI - 47.5 O/U
Implied totals: JAX 20.25; PHI 27.25
4. WFT @ DAL – 41.5 O/U
Implied totals: WFT 19.25; DAL 22.25
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterback
Josh Allen ($8,400)
Of course Josh Allen is expensive, but remember, this Baltimore Ravens defense gave up six touchdowns to Tua Tagovailoa just two weeks ago. Even worse, the Ravens just allowed the anemic New England Patriots offense to score 26 points. There’s going to be a lot of scoring and plenty of stackable options for Josh Allen this week.
Lamar Jackson ($8,300)
Speaking of the Ravens, can anyone stop Lamar Jackson? He currently has 12 combined touchdowns through the air and on the ground. He is literally averaging four touchdowns a game! Lamar is a no-brainer in cash and is intriguing in GPPs as well.
Jalen Hurts ($8,200)
Jalen Hurts’ MVP campaign seemingly cannot be stopped and almost certainly not by the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars defense. So let’s not overcomplicate things. Hurts = money in the bank. He id averaging over 300 passing yards per game and has three rushing touchdowns on the young season. To top that off, he has incredible playmakers to throw to in A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Jalen Hurts is a staple in cash games and has the upside to win you a GPP.
Running Back
Khalil Herbert ($5,700 if David Montgomery is out)
Explosiveness in a can! That is the best way to describe Khalil Herbert. Herbert punished the Houston Texans to the tune of 20 rushes for 157 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3. Herbert also makes a great play this week as he gets the New York Giant, who rank as the 7th best matchup for opposing RBs per Broto’s True Matchup Rank. With expensive QBs on this slate, some savings are needed and Herbert provides that.
Dameon Pierce ($5,600)
It was out with the old (Rex Burkhead) and in with the new (Dameon Pierce) for the Houston Texans last week. Pierce maintained a strong rushing share in Week 3 (87%) and I expect more of the same this week against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers rank middle of the pack in opposing RB True Matchup Rank at16th, yet I can’t erase seeing James Robinson punish the Chargers run after run. Pierce could be in for a big week.
Jamaal Williams ($6,100 if D’Andre Swift is out)
If I asked you what team was 2nd in scoring in the NFL would you have guessed the Detroit Lions? Second only to the Baltimore Ravens, the Lions offense has been humming. Now, there is a chance Jamaal Williams gets even more work with D’Andre Swift out or limited in a contest against the Seattle Seahawks. With an implied team total of 27 points there should be many points to be had for Williams.
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs ($8,400)
Devante Parker just clowned the Ravens defense for 156 yards on 5 receptions. Do you really think the Baltimore Ravens defense can fix these woes in a week? In the words of Randy Jackson “that’s a no from me dawg”. Also, I am not concerned about Diggs cramping. Being a Maryland native, the September weather is perfect for football. With temperatures in the 50-65 degree range, there should be no concerns about cramping for Mr. Diggs’ homecoming.
Tyler Lockett ($5,900)
A Seattle Seahawk in cash?! This is madness!!Somehow, someway, Tyler Lockett has 18 receptions over his last two games. Even weirder, the Seahawks were tied for the 9th most plays run last week. Is Pete Carroll trolling us? Is the Seattle Seahawks front office sharps for trading Russ? I don’t have all the answers to those questions, however, Tyler Lockett is getting volume in an offense that is running a lot of plays and is passing more than ever. It also helps Lockett that he plays against the Detroit Lions, who rank 15th in Broto’s True Matchup Rank for opposing wide receivers.
Tight End
TJ Hockenson ($4,100)
I know TJ Hockenson has been bad. Things are not pretty even after he caught a touchdown last week but I like this play for several reasons:
Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift injuries.
The Seattle Seahawks rank as the best matchup for opposing TEs per Broto’s True Matchup Rank.
The Lions have an implied team total of 27 points.
If you were ever going to bet on Hock, now would be the time.
Mark Andrews ($7,100)
Sadly, I was one of the donkeys scrutinizing Mark Andrews’ 2021 end of season run instead of looking at the numbers. Through three weeks, Mark Andrews holds a 35.2 percent target share, besting all Baltimore wideouts. In a game with an O/U of 52, there will be plenty of room for Andrews to thrive.
Tyler Conklin ($3,600)
This play is a bit risky since the Jets will be switching QBs as Zach Wilson is set to return. Through three weeks though, Conklin has 24 targets, good enough for a 15.4 percent target share on the season. Pair Conklin’s goodness with a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that ranks as the 11th best matchup for opposing TEs and we have a cash game viable TE.
D/ST
Chicago Bears ($2,700)
Things that don’t mix well - oil and water and Daniel Jones and pressure. The Chicago Bears rank 3rd highest in pressure rate. Daniel Jones should be under siege, allowing ample opportunities for da Bears to score D/ST points.
Detroit Lions ($2,800)
The Detroit Lions rank 10th in pressure rate and the Seattle Seahawks allow pressure at the 13th highest rate. Just remember, Aidan Hutchinson single-handedly destroyed the Washington Commanders offensive line two weeks ago. We could see another resurgence for Hutchinson this week as he takes on a Seahawks offensive line with multiple rookies.
Favorite stacks:
1. Jalen Hurts + AJB and/or Devonta Smith with Christian Kirk or Zay Jones bring back.
2. Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews and/or Rashod Bateman or Devin Duvernay with Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis bring back.
3. Trevor Lawrence + Christian Kirk and/or Zay Jones with AJB or Devonta Smith or Dallas Goedert bring back.
4. Jared Goff + Amon-Ra St. Brown and/or D’Andre Swift with Justin Jefferson or Irv Smith bring back.
5. Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs and/or Gabe Davis with Rashod Bateman or Mark Andrews bring back.
GPP Plays:
QB Lamar Jackson ($8,300)
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
The man is on a mission.
2. RB Austin Ekeler ($7,700)
It is going to take some marbles to play Ekeler this week with the way his season has started but he gets the 2nd best matchup for opposing running backs in the Houston Texans. The Chargers offense has been offensive, perhaps this is a spot where at least Ekeler can get kick-started.
3. RB Rashaad Penny ($4,900)
Another Seahawk! This is the dream matchup for Pete Carroll. The Detroit Lions are the #1 matchup for opposing RBs this season. The Lions have allowed opposing running backs to score 113.9 percent points over average, wow! Penny has a rushing share of 69.6 percent on the season and is primed to feast in this matchup.
4. WR Rashod Bateman ($5,600)
A big play threat in a high total game connected to an MVP candidate, that is what Rashod Bateman brings to the table this week. He has shown his boom/bust nature with weekly finishes as WR51, WR25, and WR68. Mark Andrews will be the preferred stacking option with Lamar, so using Bateman will make your lineup unique.
5. WR Marquise Brown ($6,900 nice)
Kyler Murray and Hollywood were finally in sync against the Rams, hooking up for 140 yards on 14 receptions. Hollywood now draws a Carolina Panthers defense that was railroaded by Chris Olave to the tune of 9 receptions for 147 yards.
6. WR Ceedee Lamb ($6,700)
While everyone criticized Lamb’s drops in the first half against the New York Giants, present company included, Lamb flipped a switch in the 2nd half. Lamb has been a mostly disappointing player so far but he responded big time when Dallas needed it most. Lamb should continue his ascent in this matchup with the Washington Commanders, who rank as the 7th best matchup for opposing wide receivers.
6. TE Mark Andrews ($7,100) & Kyle Pitts ($5,000)
Both are capable of breaking a slate, especially Andrews. If you have the salary, it is worth paying up for either option.
7. TE David Njoku ($3,700)
Size, athleticism and most importantly, targets. Njoku smashed against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week to 9 receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown. This week, he gets the 2nd best matchup for opposing TEs in the Atlanta Falcons. Should be another big week for the athletic freak.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
I crushed with Chris Olave last week so let’s keep the hot streak going (2-1 on the season).
Zay Jones ($4,200)
Zay Jones gave the Chargers defensive backs all they could handle in Week 3, going for 85 yards on 10 receptions and a touchdown. In a game that should be back and forth with the Philadelphia Eagles, I expect Jones to be plenty involved and throttle the 10 fantasy point threshold.
Have a great week 4 of DFS! Go win big!
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By Clayton Jones
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.