Attempting to predict outcomes in the NFL can seem fairly easy when looking at it from a macro view. Anyone who follows the league can point out that one team may have a good offense and their opponent may have a bad defense, but if that's all there was to it, the exhilaration we feel from watching football every Sunday would cease to exist. When you zoom in on any game you’ll see the individual battles taking place all over the field. These are often where the real story is told, so let's dive into some of the Pro Football Focus data on matchups between Wide Receivers and Defensive Backs that could really tip the scales in week four.
Golden Opportunity WR of the Week
Amon-Ra St. Brown vs Seattle Seahawks
In the second quarter of week 3 against the Vikings, Young Detroit stud Amon-Ra St. Brown rolled his ankle but was thankfully able to finish the game and still put up six catches for 73 yards. Injuries typically cool off the public’s expectations for a player but this is not the time to write off the Sun God. St. Brown is clearly Jarod Goff’s favorite target and will have his best matchup of the season if he is able to suit up on Sunday. We know at this point that he can get it done lining up anywhere on the field but he still lines up in the slot 65% of the time. Lucky for St. Brown, Seahawks CB Coby Bryant is tasked with covering the for slot the vast majority of his snaps. Bryant is currently sporting an abysmal 33.1 PFF grade, allowing three yards per route, and is giving up a catch 78% of the time he is targeted. PFF Projects St. Brown will be covered by Bryant for 39 snaps, giving him an excellent 89.4/100.0 matchup advantage.
‘Better Luck Next Time’ WR of the Week
Tyler Boyd vs Miami Dolphins
For years now, Tyler Boyd has been a darling for NFL football fans. He is a crucial piece of the Bengals great WR corps as a reliable slot player and always seems to step up when Cincinnati needs him. Burrow may need to look at other options this week though, as Tyler Boyd will line up against the impressive Miami Undrafted Rookie Free Agent signing Kader Kohou, who is quickly making a name for himself. The speedy slot CB currently has a 77.2 PFF grade, 12.8 higher than Tyler Boyd. Opposing QBs have been shying away from Kohou, as he has only been targeted on a measly 13% of his snaps in coverage. PFF gives Boyd a terrible 13.5/100.0 matchup advantage and is projecting him to see Kohou in coverage for 53 snaps, the most of any individual matchup for week 4.
Dogfight of the Week
Diontae Johnson vs Sauce Gardner
Still Curtain
A matchup against stud WR Diontae Johnson a week after matching up against the very formidable duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should allow Jets rookie CB Sauce Gardner to show why he was worth the fourth overall pick. New York is not a team that has asked their corners to shadow opposing pass-catchers this season. Sauce stays on the defensive left for 82% of his time on the field. He is still projected to see plenty of Diontae Johnson, who rarely lines up in the slot and splits his time almost equally between the two outside WR alignments. While Sauce Gardner’s 68.9 PFF grade is solid for a rookie, it still falls well short of Johnson’s 79.0. As always, grades never tell the full story. On a play by play basis, Gardner is playing very well, allowing less than one yard per route run in his coverage. It is going to come down to whether Diontae Johnson’s superb route-running ability will allow him to get open or if he is going to be overwhelmed by the physical specimen Sauce Gardner who has superior size, speed, and physicality. This matchup will be fun to watch, no matter who wins it.
By Taren Caravella
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.