Welcome to the Clay’s DFS Plays for Week 7! Each week I’ll identify DFS plays and stacks to try to help you “bink” that GPP or smash in cash games! Week 6 was disappointing with the two highest over/under games flopping, as did many lineups. However, I still had some nice hits last week:
Josh Allen: 30.36 DK points
Rhamondre Stevenson: 25.1 DK points
Stefon Diggs: 33.8 DK points
Zach Ertz: 14 DK points
Mark Andrews: 26.6 DK points
Daniel Bellinger: 14.8 DK points
Time to refocus on the best plays for Week 7! Let the #printfest begin!
Week 7 Draftkings
Games to target:
1. DET @ DAL – 49 O/U
Implied totals: DET 21; DAL 28
2. SEA @ LAC – 51 O/U
Implied totals: SEA 22.5; LAC 28.5
3. KC @ SF – 48.5 O/U
Implied totals: KC 25.5; SF 23
4. ATL @ CIN – 47.5 O/U
Implied totals: ATL 20.5; CIN 27
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson ($8,000)
Bailey Zappe shocked the Cleveland Browns to the tune of 300 passing yards and two passing touchdowns last week. Lamar has his faults yet he should thrive in the 6th best matchup for opposing QBs this week according to the Broto’s True Matchup Ranking (Available exclusively on the Fantasy Football by Broto app on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store). Don’t hold Week 6 against Lamar, Giants DC Don Martindale used to be the Defensive Coordinator for the Ravens, so if anybody knows how to limit Lamar it would be him.
Joe Burrow ($6,900)
It’s safe to say the Bengals offense is back after Burrow eclipsed 300 yards and passed for three touchdowns for the 2nd time this season. Burrow now faces the Falcons, who give up the 4th highest Points Over Average (POA) to the quarterback position. Expect another big day for Burrow and company.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler ($8,300)
Ekeler has scored 6 total touchdowns in his last three games. Conveniently, the Seattle Seahawks are the 8th best True Matchup for opposing running backs. Don’t be fooled by Arizona’s ineptitude last week, the Chargers coaching staff is significantly better than the Cardinals and that will be reflected on the scoreboard this week.
Leonard Fournette ($7,700)
Volume is king, which is why Leonard Fournette has been a cash game staple this season. Overall, Fournette has an 82.6 percent rushing share and a 14.6 target share while playing 76 percent of the snaps. Now, Lenny finally gets an easy matchup as the Carolina Panthers are the best True Matchup for opposing running backs.
Josh Jacobs ($6,500)
Jacobs has had back-to-back 30+ point games on DK and now he gets the Houston Texans, who rank as the 6th best True Matchup for running backs. The Las Vegas Raiders are a home favorite with a 26.25 implied team total. Jacobs has the ability to break the slate this week.
Wide Receivers
Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,500)
Starting off cheap! Wan’Dale only had four targets last week yet he made the most of his opportunities with three receptions for 37 yards and one TD. Even though Robinson only played 23 percent of the snaps he still tied for a team-high 14.8 percent target share. The Jaguars rank as the 4th best True Matchup for opposing wide receivers, so Robinson should have a nice game with an expected increase in snaps.
Ja’Marr Chase ($8,200)
Chase and the Bengals offense got back on track against the New Orleans Saints in Week 6. Chase has accumulated 10+ targets in three of his last four gamest and the Atlanta Falcons rank as the 6th best True Matchup for opposing wide receivers. Ja’Marr Chase should stay hot in Week 7.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100)
ARSB is fresh off the bye and healthy again, ready to come back with a vengeance. The matchup against the Cowboys isn’t ideal but I’m not fading Amon-Ra. St. Brown, who is still 10th in receiving touchdowns and still sports a top three True Target Value (TTaV - A Broto Exclusive Stat - is available exclusively on the Fantasy Football by Broto app on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store).
Tight End
David Njoku ($4,200)
Njoku has become consistent lately. He’s had 6 or more targets and 50+ yards in his last four games. It also helps Njoku’s case that the Baltimore Ravens are the 8th best True Matchup for opposing tight ends. Even rookie TE Daniel Bellinger popped against the Ravens last week.
Mark Andrews ($7,400)
If you have the salary this week, go get Mark Andrews in your lineup. Andrews has had double-digit targets in four of six games this season. Andrews now gets to face a pathetic Cleveland Browns defense, who rank as the 8th best True Matchup for opposing tight ends.
D/ST
Dallas Cowboys ($4,100)
The Detroit Lions may come out firing after the bye and that will play right into the hands of the Dallas Cowboys defense. The ‘Boys rank 1st in pressure rate at 32.4 percent and 1st in sacks with 24. Everyone saw how Bill Belichick shut down the Lions offense in week five, so don’t be surprised if Dan Quinn deploys a similar game plan.
Favorite stacks:
1. Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase/Hayden Hurst/Tee Higgins
2. Geno Smith + DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett
3. Leonard Fournette + Tampa Bay D/ST
4. Patrick Mahomes + Travis Kelce/Juju Smith-Schuster with Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk bring back
5. Josh Jacobs + Las Vegas Raiders D/ST
GPP Plays:
QB
Lamar Jackson ($8,000) or Joe Burrow ($6,900)
Both Lamar and Burrow are in great spots at home to smash this week. Both quarterbacks also have healthy implied team totals at 26 and 27 points, respectively. Use these two quarterbacks in single entry GPPs.
QB
Justin Herbert ($7,200) or Dak Prescott ($6,700)
These quarterbacks are both a bit riskier than Lamar and Burrow but both are in juicy matchups. The Seattle Seahawks rank as the 2nd best True Matchup for opposing quarterbacks while the Detroit Lions rank as the 5th best True Matchup. It also helps that these two quarterbacks have concentrated skill players to stack with them with. I’ll deploy these quarterbacks in large field GPPs.
RB Derrick Henry ($8,200)
Long live the king! In all seriousness, Henry is back and stuffing the stat sheet. He has finished as a top-10 RB in half-PPR the past three weeks with finishes of RB2, RB8, and RB5, respectively. Even better, King Henry has 13 targets over his past three games. The Jacksonville Jaguars just cranked out 243 rushing yards against the Indianapolis Colts last week and Derrick Henry is better than all of Jacksonville’s running backs combined.
RB Austin Ekeler ($8,300)
Sports Illustrated
I’m certain Ekeler will be chalk and I’m totally fine with that. Find somewhere else to be contrarian this week because Ekeler is in a smash spot against the Seattle Seahawks.
WR
Deebo Samuel ($7,600) or Brandon Aiyuk ($6,000)
The San Francisco 49ers will have to keep pace with the Kansas City Chiefs this week, allowing ample opportunity for Samuel and Aiyuk to contribute points to your DFS lineups. Currently, this game is at a 48.5 over/under.
WR
Tyler Lockett ($5,600) and DK Metcalf ($6,800)
Much like Geno Smith, I also missed on the Seattle Seahawks wide receivers last week. However, Geno and crew get another opportunity to produce against the Los Angeles Chargers, who rank as the 9th best True Matchup for opposing wide receivers. Get those Seattle wide receivers in your lineups!
WR Mike Williams ($7,200)
Mike Williams is a roller coaster fantasy asset. With wide receiver finishes between WR99 and WR8, you never know what to expect. With that said, the Seahawks are a great matchup and Williams has three games with 10+ targets. I like his chances for booming even more if Keenan Allen misses this game.
TE
Mark Andrews ($7,400) or Travis Kelce ($8,000)
If you want to avoid the stench of lower priced tight ends, then I present Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce. Sure they are expensive but they also can break the slate at their respective position. Kelce has been on another level lately, with only one finish outside the top three TEs while adding seven or more targets in every game this season. The 49ers defense has been hit by the injury bug and Kelce should exploit those weaknesses. Mark Andrews has been nearly as good as Kelce. Andrews has only finished outside the top-two in tight end scoring twice this year and he gets to face the Cleveland Browns and their terrible, horrible, no good, very bad defense.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
Rondale Moore kept the streak alive last week, which makes me 4-1.
Alec Pierce ($4,600)
Alec Pierce has really been stepping up to help the Indianapolis Colts lately. He has 16 targets over his past two weeks and has accumulated 80+ receiving yards in two out of four games played this season. If King Henry has a big day, the Colts will have to catch up and Pierce will have to be involved.
Have a great week 7 of DFS! Go win big!
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By Clayton Jones
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.