Attention to exclusive and advanced analytics can give managers an advantage over the average competitor. However, the noise of unnecessary statistics can make the process of using advanced statistics quite intimidating. Here at Broto Fantasy, we aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the FF player by giving you every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.
In this recurring weekly series, we will highlight each of Broto Fantasy's exclusive statistics and use these numbers to project player validity throughout the NFL season.
Five weeks of the NFL season are in the books and one franchise stands alone as the ultimate True Value Team. An unsuspecting roster of castaways, misfits, and coaches nearing geriatric status dominate our True Value Rankings consistently. Without further ado, let’s introduce the league’s most unsuspecting True Value Team: the Seattle Seahawks.
TRUE THROW VALUE
True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback's full volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Fantasy managers can essentially understand this as adjusted fantasy points per pass attempt.
Geno Smith
ESPN
True Throw Value = 0.541
Rank: QB4
Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Geno Smith. Those are the top-four quarterbacks in True Throw Value through the first five weeks of the 2022 season. Smith is performing at an elite level in every game. The ninth-year journeyman is averaging 20.0 PPG, tied with Joe Burrow as the QB6 on the season and has totaled four top-15 scoring finishes in his first five games as the Seahawks' starter. Smith has amassed three consecutive performances as QB7 or higher, including a QB2 (31.7 PTS) and QB 4 (24.0 PTS) showing in Weeks 4 and 5. The 32-year-old veteran is playing at an otherworldly level to begin the 2022 season. He ranks 2nd in yards per attempt (YDS/ATT) for all quarterbacks with over 150 passes, tied with Josh Allen at 8.3 YDS/ATT. The Seahawks' signal-caller also leads the league with a completion percentage of 75.2% and a QB rating of 113.2, throwing for 261.0 YPG (QB12), with nine passing touchdowns (QB7). He has also added one rushing score with 77 yards on the ground, averaging an even 2.0 touchdowns per contest. Simply put; there is not a more efficient passer through the first five weeks of the season. Smith is firmly locked in as a surprise QB1 even when facing difficult defensive matchups.
TRUE TARGET VALUE
A derivative of True Throw Value. True Target Value analyzes a player's quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their quarterback's True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable said player's targets are. The higher the value, the more projected points.
D.K. Metcalf
Washington Post
True Target Value = 5.21
Rank: WR9
D.K. Metcalf turned around a lackluster start to the 2022 season with three consecutive performances above 17.5 PPR points over his last three games. Metcalf’s True Target Value rank of WR9 suggests an ability to maintain that production throughout the rest of the season. The third-year wideout earns an alpha’s share of Smith’s highly valuable targets, posting a 28.1% target share (WR12). Metcalf has run a route on 100.0% of Smith’s dropbacks this season, further solidifying his role as the number-one pass-catcher on a surprisingly capable offense.
Tyler Lockett
True Target Value = 4.33
Rank: WR19
Tyler Lockett and the term “consistent production” are not often uttered in the same sentence. The veteran speedster has seemingly shed his label as a boom-or-bust fantasy asset this season, recording four straight weeks with 13.0 or more fantasy points, including a WR3 (27.4 PTS) game against the Saints in Week 5. Lockett is earning a career-high 26.1% of the Seahawks’ targets, averaging 16.5 PPG (WR12). Lockett’s True Target Value rating of 4.33 indicates he may concede some top-end production to Metcalf in the coming weeks but both will remain viable fantasy starters.
TRUE AIR YARDS
The total amount of yards a pass traveled before getting to the receiver, adjusted for the completion probability of the throw. This allows us to see how many air yards a player receives while removing variables like hail mary plays, last-second heaves, etc.
D.K. Metcalf
Total True Air Yards = 260
Rank: WR6
Not only is Metcalf earning his targets at an elite rate, he is also doing so in all areas of the field. The subtle nuances of route separation have never been a cornerstone of Metcalf’s game. His unfathomable size and athleticism allow for incredible success rates in contested situations on deep routes. The third-year wideout accounts for 37.5% of the Seahawks' air yards this season with 160 total True Air Yards. Metcalf has converted 62.3% of his catchable deep ball attempts, leaving a mere 99 Unrealized True Air Yards on the table.
Tyler Lockett
12thmanrising.com
Total True Air Yards = 255
Rank: WR9
Lockett falls closely behind his counterpart in total True Air Yards, once again exhibiting Smith’s incredible efficiency and ability to support multiple high-end fantasy receivers this season. Lockett mirrors his quarterback’s True Value as a receiver, leading the NFL in Realized True Air Yards with 193 and a mind-boggling conversion rate of 75.7%. The veteran wideout’s effectiveness in deep ball situations is at an all-time high with no signs of regression.
TRUE PLAYER GRADES
A composite grade based on current-year production that evaluates past performance while analyzing trends to predict future production.
Geno Smith
True Player Grade: 81.6 (B)
Rank: QB7/30th Overall
DK Metcalf
True Player Grade: 72.4 (C)
Rank: WR23/49th Overall
Tyler Lockett
True Player Grade = 87.6 (A-)
Rank: WR9/21st Overall
All three primary members of the Seahawks' passing attack rank within the top 50 players in True Player Grade to start the season. Metcalf’s slow start keeps him behind his cohorts as a top-10 positional asset but is quickly gaining on them with his stellar production over the past three weeks. Smith is firing on all cylinders with pinpoint accuracy and game-management ability. Lockett is hitting a late-career bloom as an every-week star receiver and should continue his run as long as his target share is maintained. The Seahawks' offense was completely written off to begin the 2022 season. Luckily for fans and fantasy managers alike, they didn’t write back.
by Matt Ward
If you want to follow this series throughout the 2022 season, check out the other episodes here: True Value Report: Vol.1, True Value Report: Unusual Suspects, True Value Report: Regression Candidates.
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.