Attention to exclusive and advanced analytics can give managers an advantage over the average competitor. However, the noise of unnecessary statistics can make the process of using advanced statistics quite intimidating. Here at Broto Fantasy, we aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the FF player by giving you every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.
In this recurring weekly series, we will highlight each of Broto Fantasy's exclusive statistics and use these numbers to project player validity throughout the NFL season.
With seven weeks of the NFL season in the books, let's look at one undervalued player in each of our exclusive True Value Rankings who is due for positive regression.
TRUE THROW VALUE
True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback's full volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Fantasy managers can essentially understand this as adjusted fantasy points per pass attempt.
Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens
True Throw Value: 0.520
Ranking: QB5
Lamar Jackson began the 2022 season on a similar trajectory to his MVP-winning campaign. The dynamic dual-threat was averaging an absurd 34.73 PPG during the first three contests but has since fallen off a cliff into a bed of meandering production. Jackson has just one QB1 finish over the last four games, tallying 14.67 PPG on average. His rushing ability is as elite as ever with 510 rushing yards in seven games, leading the quarterback position and ranking 5th among all NFL players. Jackson’s top-5 True Throw Value rating suggests he should return to his game-breaking output shortly.
TRUE TARGET VALUE
A derivative of True Throw Value. True Target Value analyzes a player's quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their quarterback's True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable said player's targets are. The higher the value, the more projected points.
Diontae Johnson - Pittsburgh Steelers
True Target Value: 5.01
Ranking: WR7/10th Overall
The Steelers have shuffled through five different quarterbacks during Diontae Johnson’s tenure with the team. Most recently, the team elected to swap Mitchell Trubisky for Kenny Pickett. The only constant that has remained during the Steelers quarterback carousel over the last two seasons is Johnson’s elite ability to earn targets as the team’s top receiver. The underrated alpha wideout has 67 targets this season (WR4), earning a 27.2% target share (WR12). Sadly, his team-high opportunity share has resulted in a mere 10.8 PPR PPG (WR39). Johnson’s True Target Value indicates a potential turnaround in the second half of the season. If the Steelers wideout maintains his current volume, the fantasy production will surely follow.
TRUE AIR YARDS
The total amount of yards a pass traveled before getting to the receiver, adjusted for the completion probability of the throw. This allows us to see how many air yards a player receives while removing variables like hail mary plays, last-second heaves, etc.
Courtland Sutton - Denver Broncos
Mile High Report
True Air Yards: 342
True aDOT: 5.9
Ranking: WR6/7th Overall
Courtland Sutton is the only serviceable weapon on a dreadfully incompetent Broncos offense. Bad play-calling, poor quarterbacking and catastrophic injuries have left this team feasting on the crumbs of defeat left behind by their superior opponents. Sutton was the last and latest member of the offense to meet the basement floor, putting up 3.4 (WR68) and 5.3 (WR67) point performances in his past two contests. Before that, the crafty veteran wideout was consistently out-performing expectations despite being stuck on a decrepit offense, scoring 15.52 PPR PPG on average during the first five games. Sutton’s team-high target share of 24.8% (WR21) and 342 total True Air Yards exhibit an ability to earn targets at all levels of the field. Sutton is an excellent bounce-back candidate for the back half of the 2022 season if the Broncos offense finds its bearings.
TRUE PLAYER GRADES
A composite grade based on current-year production that evaluates past performance while analyzing trends to predict future production.
Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals
True Player Grade: 73.7 (C+)
Ranking: QB7/42nd Overall
Kyler Murray has not recorded a season below 90.0 in our exclusive True Player Grades since his rookie campaign. The Cardinals quarterback has struggled to meet his infinite ceiling as a Konami Code quarterback in fantasy but still ranks amongst the elite assets at the position. The newly extended quarterback is averaging 19.3 PPG (QB6), throwing for 1667 yards (238.1/G) and seven touchdowns while adding 263 rushing yards (37.6/G). Murray’s high-profiled rushing ability is trending up after the Cardinals appeared content on turning their versatile weapon into a statue inside the pocket earlier in the season. Over the last three games, Murray has rushed for 172 yards (57.3/G). The return of DeAndre Hopkins should help the Cardinals’ elusive quarterback increase his passing prowess and True Throw Value as well. Hopefully, Murray can answer the call of duty and return to his game-breaking ways before the season comes to a close.
If you want to follow this series throughout the 2022 season, check out the other weekly reports here:
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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by Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.