SLEEPERS
QB: Taylor Heinicke (WSH)
The air of magic that wafts mystically around Taylor Heinicke on a near-yearly basis has been snuffed out over the past two contests. The substitute signal-caller always seems to find a way into the fantasy football lexicon as a priority streaming option, bordering QB1 production against soft matchups followed abruptly by vacant stats when confronting above-average defenses. Heinicke has secured five starts for the Commanders this season, averaging 21.05 PPG in his first three games (QB13/QB8/QB15). The fan-favorite gunslinger has since scored 5.44 and 6.84 points during his last two outings. As disappointing as his recent totals have been, Heinicke's downfall was to be expected and is oddly encouraging for his looming trajectory. The Commanders faced off against the Eagles and the Texans in Weeks 10-11, two teams that excel at stifling even the league’s best quarterbacks as they rank 32nd and 30th overall in True Matchup Rank with a combined Points Over Average of -33.9% to the position. Much like his recent decline, Heinicke’s recurring rise is a strangely predictable and cyclical trend. After crashing and burning always finds ways to rise from the ashes, reborn as a competent quarterback. The Commanders will welcome a porous Falcons defense to their home field in Week 12. The Falcons' secondary couldn’t band together to stop a stiff breeze let alone the production of opposing quarterbacks. Heinicke’s opponent is allowing 266.3 passing yards (29th) and 24.9 (27th) points per game this season. The Falcons defense gives up 20.7 fantasy PPG to quarterbacks, ranked fifth in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of 25.8%. The Commanders quarterback has had some costly turnovers this season but has flexed decent accuracy and efficiency metrics, boasting a top ten completion rating against man coverage (62.8%) with a True Throw Value of 0.469 (QB13). Heinicke will have the chance to squeeze the last ounces of relevance he has this season against one of the league’s easiest matchups. Managers looking for a contingency plan at quarterback can slot Heinicke in with confidence over similar replacement-level players.
Matt Ward
TE: Foster Moreau (LV)
I will continue to spew shameless matchup-based propaganda about Foster Moreau until the masses finally wake up and increase his rostership percentages. The Raiders travel to face the Seahawks in a cross-conference competition that could potentially yield week-winning numbers for those bold enough to place Moreau in their starting lineups. The Seahawks defense is a dream matchup for tight ends, permitting 18.3 PPG to the position with an absurd 84.1% Points Over Average rating, ranked 1st. The Raiders enter Week 12 as 4.0 point underdogs, suggesting a positive game script with increased passing opportunities should the team be forced to play from behind. The Raiders also have a negative point differential of 0.425 points per quarter further lending credence to the narrative of a pass-heavy game against a capable and confident Seahawks offense. Moreau is a sensational streaming option for managers in need of a reliable floor with increased upside against the best matchup in all of fantasy football.
Matt Ward
WR : Jahan Dotson (WSH)
Jahan Dotson looks like has hit a bit of a rookie wall. After missing 5 weeks due to injury, the rookie WR has only caught 2 of his 3 targets for 27 yards over the last two weeks. His offensive snap percentage also dropped in those games. I wouldn’t be too worried.
The Texans are the most difficult WR matchup according to Broto’s True Matchup Rank and the Eagles are the 10th most difficult. Dotson has been a big play guy on this offense, thriving when he gets enough targets to convert them into long gains and scores. His lack of targets in two terrible matchups - including an early blowout - have affected his scoring opportunities.
This week, Dotson will be facing the Falcons, the easiest WR matchup. Despite the injury, Dotson is still the third most targets Commanders WR on the season. RB Antonio Gibson and TE Logan Thomas are the only other players seeing enough targets to compete with Dotson but with Curtis Samuel seemingly fizzling out in this offense, Dotson will not only return to his WR3 role but also get a chance to become the WR2 behind Terry McLaurin. This is a perfect bounce-back spot for a WR who can beat his Week 12 projection with a single catch.
Themi Michalakis
RB: Rachaad White (TB)
It is looking like wheels up on Rachaad White as we head into Week Twelve as Leonard Fournette is doubtful to play. If you are anything like me, you have been stashing White on your bench in all of your leagues, waiting for him to have an opportunity like this. Whether you drafted him or picked him up off waivers early on, we are all united this week on the Rachaad White train and the train is set to leave the station.
After playing in the typical backup RB role for the majority of the season, White exploded in a big way in Week Ten against the Seattle Seahawks. For the first time in his career he was given double digit carries and he played very well with the increased opportunity. He picked up 105 rushing yards on 22 carries, averaging nearly 5 yards per carry as the Buccaneers went on to win the game in Germany. While it is never fun to see an injury occur, White filled in very well for Fournette when needed. White finished as the RB19 in that game despite not seeing a single target and not finding the endzone. If he had fallen into the endzone, he would have finished as an RB1. An RB1 finish is the type of upside White will carry into Week 12.
The Buccaneers are facing the abysmal Cleveland Browns run defense in Week 12, which ranks as the 5th best matchup for opposing running backups in Points over Average.
Rachaad White is a locked and loaded high end RB2 with clear RB1 upside this week.
Boyd Armstrong
BUSTS
QB: Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are like a cockroach that survived a nuclear blast. They are barely hanging on for dear life but refuse to lie down and die. Rodgers has slowly crept his way back into QB1 territory, slotting himself in as a fraud amongst the top options (QB12) despite averaging a lowly 14.7 PPG (QB23). While other quarterbacks fall victim to injuries and missed games, Rodgers continues to outlast them like the proverbial cockroach we mentioned earlier. A vintage three-touchdown performance against a league-leading Cowboys defense in Week 9 (QB9) and a QB12 outing against the Titans have managers praising Rodgers' comeback as a must-start quarterback in fantasy. The matchup that the long-time Packers quarterback is about to face dictates a much different narrative. The Eagles are the best defense in the NFL at mitigating offensive production from opposing quarterbacks. They allow a painful 10.4 PPG to the position with a negative Points Over Average differential of -35.3%, ranked 32nd. Rodgers may have proven that he has a little left in the tank but that tank is about to run empty against the treacherous Eagle's defense.
Matt Ward
TE: George Kittle (SF)
Getty Images
The 49ers play host to the Saints in an NFC rematch of the game that sent the home team to the 2021 Playoffs after a dramatic Week 18 victory last season. George Kittle enters this matchup fresh off his best game of the 2022 season, posting six receptions on eight targets (27.5%) for 84 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals who just so happen to allow an average increase of 83.9% of production to the tight end position per game. The Saints, on the other hand, have not allowed a single tight end to cross the 50-yard threshold in any game this season. Long-forgotten Broncos castaway Noah Fant currently holds the 2022 record for most receiving yards against the Saints' defense, tallying 49 yards for the Seahawks in Week 5. The only touchdown the Saints have allowed to the tight end position went to Ravens rookie Isaiah Likely on his first target of their Week 9 clash. Likely did not catch another pass for the remainder of the contest. These fearsome tales of a defense that refuses to concede ground to opposing tight ends are reflected by the Saints' negative Points Over Average of -44.2% to the position, ranked dead last in True Matchup Rank at 32nd overall. Kittle has played in five games this season against other defenses ranked in the bottom half of the league in Points Over Average, facing the Panthers (17th), Broncos (18th), Chargers (20th) once, and the Rams (19th) twice. The 49ers' star tight end averaged just 6.78 PPR PPG in those games, securing only one TE1 finish. Managers should not hesitate to downgrade Kittle in their rankings this week despite his otherworldly talents.
Matt Ward
WR: Diontae Johnson (PIT)
This isn’t a bold call. Diontae Johnson has been the biggest disappointment at WR in fantasy football this season. He Is the PPR WR42 on the year and his 10.1 PPG is worse than Zay Jones, Josh Reynolds and Darius Slayton. The 2021 WR8 has been awful.
The blame isn’t wholly on Johnson. The Steelers offense is one of the worst in the league and has only scored more than 23 points once all year. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett is averaging 203.7 passing yards per game and has only thrown 3 TDs in six starts. This is an offense that can’t possibly support all of the incredible weapons it boasts. Pat Freiermuth is having a very good season at TE but outside of that it is hard to find a consistent player. Rookie WR George Pickens is producing admirablybut he is not winning you your leagues. Johnson is the one player who continues to draw a massive amount of targets but he has not had a WR1 game all year. In fact, Johnson only has one WR2 game in PPR and none in half-PPR. He has not scored a single TD this season.
The Colts are the 5th hardest matchup for WRs per True Matchup Rank and that can be attributed to their secondary. CB Stephon Gillmore, who has a 76.2 PFF grade, is likely to face off against Johnson. Per Pro Football Reference, he has not allowed a single TD on 62 targets and is allowing around 36 yards per game.This has the makings of a difficult game for Johnson, more so than usual. Expect another rough outing.
Themi Michalakis
RB: Kareem Hunt (CLE)
Kareem Hunt has been a fantasy football disappointment this season. He only has 1 weekly RB1 finish on the year, a game in which he had two touchdowns against the Panthers in the first game of the season. Since coming out the gates hot it has been a very bumpy ride. Between weeks two through eleven, Hunt posted only 1 weekly finish as an RB2 or higher, finishing as the RB21 against the Chargers in Week Five thanks to a touchdown that salvaged his day. During the remaining games of that same stretch, Hunt averaged a little over 6 half PPR points per game and finished the week as an RB3 or lower eight times. A major reason for this has been the downsizing of his usage in the Cleveland offense.
Through Week five, Hunt was averaging 11+ rushes and 3+ targets a game. He was earning good enough usage to make him somewhat fantasy viable but still not producing fantasy numbers as consistently as managers had hoped. Beginning in Week six, however, Hunt’s usage shrunk drastically. He averaged only 6 rushing attempts per game and saw his usual 3+ targets just once. The only thing Kareem Hunt has going for him right now is his name.
Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense which allows the 5th least Points over Average to opposing running backs, Hunt is a must bench.
Boyd Armstrong
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.