Welcome to Clay’s DFS Plays for Week 12! With three games already in the books, let’s take a look at the Sunday slate for Week 12. Let the #printfest begin!
Week 12 Draftkings
Games to target:
1. HOU @ MIA – 46.5 O/U
Implied totals: HOU 16.25; MIA 30.25
2. CIN @ TEN – 43.5 O/U
Implied totals: CIN 23; TEN 20.5
3. LAR @ KC – 42.5 O/U
Implied totals: LAR 13.5; KC 29
4. LV @ SEA – 44.5
Implied totals: LV 22; SEA 25.5
5. NO @ SF
Implied totals: NO 17.25; SF 25.75
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,200)
Arrowhead Addict
Mahomes has had four straight games with 30+ PPR points and has reached the 300 yard DraftKings bonus in his last 5 games. With the Chiefs choosing not to run, Mahomes is a point machine. Pay up for the consistant production in an unpredictable landscape of QBs.
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,900)
What this Miami offense is doing is unbelievable and fun, especially if you have Tua in fantasy or DFS. Tua will probably be the biggest chalk play this week but who cares. The guy has more weapons than an armory and any of those weapons can make a house call at any time. Tua has thrown three touchdowns in each of his last three games. Enjoy the value of Tua if you can’t fit Mahomes in cash lineups.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler ($8,500)
The Arizona Cardinals have been surprisingly good against opposing wide receivers, ranking as the 19th best matchup for opposing WRs per Broto’s exclusive stat True Matchup Rank. However, against running backs, the Cardinals have let the flood gates open, ranking as the No. 1 True Matchup for opposing running backs and a nice bounce-back spot for Ekeler.
Rachaad White ($5,100)
A Matt Ward favorite, White draws the start this week with Leonard Fournette presumably sidelined (he is doubtful at the time of publishing) with a hip injury. White ran for 105 yards against Seattle in Week 10 and his been a regular contributor to the offense, so we already know White can play. Potentially adding to White’s success is a Cleveland Browns defense that ranks as the 5th-best True Matchup for opposing running backs. Deploy White in GPPs as well.
Kenneth Walker (6,900)
Walker has been consistently good and gets the 3rd-best True Matchup for opposing running backs in the Las Vegas Raiders.
Jeff Wilson ($5,900)
Backfield mate Raheem Mostert is doubtful, leaving all of the work for Wilson. Since Wilson joined the Dolphins, he has commanded more targets, snaps and rushing share than Mostert, Wilson is lined up for all the work against the 4th-best True Matchup for opposing running backs in the Houston Texans.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill ($9,100) & Jaylen Waddle ($7,300)
If Miami is on the main slate, then you need one of their receivers in your lineup.
Tyler Lockett ($6,200) & DK Metcalf ($6,500)
In 2022, the Seahawks have passed at a 56.2% rate, their fourth-highest rate in HC Pete Carroll’s time. The Seahawks also rank sixth in net yards per attempt and fifth in adjusted net yards per attempt. This offense is efficient and should pummel a mediocre Vegas secondary.
Treylon Burks ($4,200)
Even I have to admit, Burks is a bit dicey for cash, but at $4,200 there is potential for big production while saving cash. The Bengals rank as the 12th best True Matchup for opposing running backs, so if they cheat to stop the run too much, Burks can make them pay with a big play or two.
Tight End
Foster Moreau ($3,400)
Moreau disappointed last week to the tune of 33 yards on one reception, however, this week he gets the No. 1 True Matchup for opposing tight ends in the Seahawks. Keep the light on for Moreau in your cash lineups.
Travis Kelce ($7,700)
The total point differential between TE1 Kelce and TE2 T.J. Hockenson in half-PPR scoring is the same as Hockenson and TE38 Jake Ferguson.
D/ST
Kansas City Chiefs ($2,800)
The Rams are bad. Third-string QB Bryce Perkins is expected to start his first game ever against an experienced Chiefs defense. Although Perkins is primarily a rushing QB (1,692 rushing yards in his career at Virginia ), the Chiefs — with an implied team total of 29 — should force the Rams to pass. Kansas City will be feasting on ribs and Rams this Sunday.
Favorite stacks:
1. Patrick Mahomes + Travis Kelce
2. Tua Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle + Mike Gesicki with Nico Collins bring back.
3. Jeff Wilson with Dolphins D/ST
4. Geno Smith + DK Metcalf + Tyler Lockett with Davante Adams/Foster Moreau or Josh Jacobs bring back.
5. Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd with Treylon Burks bring back.
GPP Plays:
QB Joe Burrow ($6,700)
Burrow isn’t going to run like Geno Smith or Lamar Jackson but Burrow can toss the rock. Burrow has the ability to throw for 400 yards and 3+ touchdowns and that’s what I want in a GPP. The Titans rank as the 8th-best True Matchup for opposing QBs and the 3rd best True Matchup for opposing WRs. Make sure to get Burrow in some GPP lineups.
RB Michael Carter ($5,400)
With a change at QB for the Jets, Carter could be in line for some additional work. Here are Carter’s receiving stats when Mike White played in 3 games last season:
9 targets, 8 receptions, 76 yards
14 targets, 9 receptions, 95 yards
6 targets, 4 receptions, 43 yards
If you’re looking for an upside back at a cheap price, Carter is your guy.
RB Latavius Murray ($5,000)
A 5k-back that is expected to handle most of the work against the 6th-best True Matchup for opposing running backs? Sounds like a GPP winner to me! With Melvin Gordon now out of the picture, Murray gets the Carolina Panthers that have allowed the 4th-most rushing yards (1,507) this season. Expect Latavius Murray to make the number larger.
WR Drake London ($4,900)
London started his season with a bang and then things bottomed-out. However, with Kyle Pitts out this week another opportunity presents itself for London. Pitts garnered a 26.1 percent target share this season, without him, London should be the focal point of Arthur Smith’s offense.
TE Mike Gesicki ($3,500)
If you want leverage on the popular Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle plays this week then look no further than Mike Gesicki. Gesicki is a boom/bust guy getting a matchup against the 10th-best True Matchup for opposing TEs. Gesicki also has some intriguing numbers:
4th in touchdowns by TEs
5th in aDOT
7th in red zone opportunities
10th in points per opportunity excluding touchdowns
Throw some Gesicki in your GPP lineups, just don’t gritty like him, please.
D/ST
Kansas City Chiefs ($2,800)
See above.
New York Jets ($3,300)
The Jets currently rank 4th in quarterback pressure rate at 24.9 percent. For all the praise Justin Fields has received, it hasn’t all been gravy. Here are some of Fields passing stats:
5th in interceptions
33rd in completion rate
32nd in deep completion rate
40th in DAKOTA- expected points added + completion percentage above expected.
We all love watching Fields run 40+ yards for touchdowns but Robert Saleh and the Jets defense ain’t having that. Fire up the Jets defense in GPPs this week.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
Donovan Peoples-Jones crushed in Week 11, bringing me up to 6-4.
Drake London ($4,900)
I’m doubling down on London. As much as Arthur Smith hates being rational, the Washington Commanders will force him to pass. The Commanders rank as the third-worst True Matchup for opposing running backs. Should Arthur Smith choose the path of least resistance, London could be a slate-breaker.
Have a great Week 12 of DFS! Go win big!
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By Clayton Jones
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.