Broto Bets went 1-2 and lost 1.23 units last week. Trusting the Jets is rarely a good plan. 2023 Total: 34-32-1, -5.115u
Teaser:
Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons O/U: 44.5
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (-7) O/U: 34
Themi’s Teaser: Colts +8.5, Broncos -1
(6-point teaser, -120)
Indy is a pretty fun team. Gardner Minshew is easy to root for and Michael Pittman Jr. will probably always be underrated. Both players have a chance to shine in an excellent passing matchup against the Falcons. Atlanta’s pass defense ranks 30th in DVOA and often struggles to contain top WRs. The Colts are pretty bad against the run which may play into Arthur Smith’s hand here but they’re just far too inconsistent at generating any success. They often drag teams into one-score games that neither side has any business staying in and that should continue to be the case. Losing by more than 8 points to Taylor Heinicke would be embarrassing.
Denver is a tough place to play, and they’re a tough team to beat on a week to week basis. The Lions took them down with ease by simply not making big mistakes. When the Broncos can’t generate turnovers, they seem to turn back into their old selves. It’s also just difficult to convincingly beat Dan Campbell. Thankfully they host a Patriots team that almost couldn’t win if they tried. Whether it’s Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe, there’s no reason to have faith that this team is ready to compete any week. A win over the Steelers was a fluke, and more of a sign of where Pittsburgh is heading, than the norm. New England trots out a bottom-5 offense while Denver is at least average. A strong run defense isn’t enough to save the Pats.
Straight:
Bengals -2.5 (-110)
What a difference a week can make. Jake Browning got his first career start against the Steelers and now will attempt to keep Cincy’s playoff hopes alive in a rematch. Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes are realistically gone but they will still want to play for pride and to prevent a division rival from making a run. To say that the Bengals have been good since losing to Pittsburgh in Browning’s first start would be an understatement. The only teams to accumulate more DVOA over the past three weeks have been the 49ers, Dolphins, Ravens, and Bills. Pittsburgh is missing multiple players at LB and Safety and can be hurt badly through the air. Mason Rudolph doesn’t exactly inspire much hope at QB but may be a slight upgrade over Mitch Trubisky in the short term. It likely won’t be enough to get the win at home.
Pat Freiermuth Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Bengals are one of the softest TE defenses in the league. TEs have been targeted 118 times (T-1st), caught 95 of them (1st), and gained 993 yards (1st) against them this year according to NFL Fantasy. They’re also allowing the 2nd highest DVOA to the position. When Muth last faced this team, it was different. Jake Browning made his first start, Kenny Pickett was still healthy, and it was the first game for this roster since firing OC Matt Canada. He hauled in 9 balls for 120 yards that game. I don’t think that Mason Rudolph will be the same with a deflated Steelers team but 24.5 in a massively plus matchup sounds good to be.
Seahawks -3 (-110)
Seattle impressed when they beat the Eagles with Drew Lock at QB and they’ve proven that they have something special going regardless of the QB. There was definitely some luck in playing a tumbling Eagles team that has been getting beat badly but they’re not exactly facing a playoff team this week. The Titans are eliminated and, while they have nothing to lose, shouldn’t be wildly competitive. Tyjae Spears should get more work which could be good for their future but I don’t think this offense is ready to keep up with Seattle. The Hawks rank 11th in passing DVOA and should have a field day against the 27th ranked pass defense. Tennessee has played spoiler to some good teams but they’re just not worth backing with confidence, while Seattle gets Geno Smith back at a crucial moment in their playoff push. They won’t have the 12th man there but Seattle should cruise to a victory.
Ravens +5.5 (-110)
A battle between two MVP candidates, a possible Super Bowl preview, and arguably the 2 best teams in either conference. This Christmas is going to end with a bang. The Ravens visit a 49ers team that, post-bye, looks unstoppable. They’ve won by at least two scores in their past six games and are out-scoring opponents 207-94. Baltimore hasn’t shown the ability to decimate teams in quite the same way, nor have they done so against teams like the Eagles or Cowboys, but they still show an incredible ability to put away teams. They just battered the Jaguars 23-7 and they’ve had games against the Browns, Seahawks, and Lions where they scored at least 28 points without allowing more than six. They haven’t lost to an NFC team all season but if there were a team to hand them that L, it would be San Francisco. SF is 1st in total DVOA but Baltimore isn’t too far back in 2nd place. Their defense ranks slightly better and they get a great rushing matchup. The 49ers only rank 18th in defensive rushing DVOA and 29th in EPA/play. Baltimore may not always look pretty on offense but they still rank incredibly highly and Todd Monken has slowly turned Isaiah Likely into a really nice option in the passing game. Odell Beckham Jr also has something left in the tank and can be good for a big play or even more. I trust Baltimore to keep this close.
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by Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.