Sleepers and Busts: Week 16

SLEEPERS

QB: Jake Browning - Cincinnati Bengals

Over the past three weeks, Jake Browning ranks as the QB4 in points per game and the QB2 in overall points. He hasn’t ended a week lower than QB8 overall and is averaging 317 yards per game in that span. The Steelers are inarguably stronger on defense than on offense so you may be hesitant to start Browning at such a crucial moment for your fantasy team. However, the Steelers' season-long averages that help support their strengths do not take into account just how injured the team has been in recent weeks. Key linebackers Cole Holcomb and Kwon Alexander have been on IR for over a month now and the team has lost Safeties Keanu Neal, Trenton Thompson, and - most importantly - Minkah Fitzpatrick. Gardner Minshew threw all over the Steelers defense after a slow start in the first half and there is no denying the Bengals ability to put points on the board even without Joe Burrow under center. The biggest concern is how competitive the Steelers can be to keep Browning in a high-passing game script. I think Mason Rudolph can be a small spark for the team in the short term and playing at home could help but there is still a chance that Browning only gets about 200 yards and a single score if they run away with it. I’m willing to take that chance. 

Themi Michalakis

RB: Chuba Hubbard - Carolina Panthers

Chuba Hubbard usurped Miles Sanders for the starting job and hasn’t looked back. 

Since Sanders missed week six due to an injury, Hubbard’s snap percentage jumped dramatically from the mid-30.0% range to him being in 60-70% of offensive plays. With this uptick in playing time, Chuba has quietly delivered consistent fantasy production for managers. From week six and onward Hubbard has six weekly RB2 or better finishes and boasts three weekly RB1 performances. Two of those top 12 games have happened in the last month, where Hubbard is averaging 15.5 Half-PPR Points Per Game in that span. 

The Panthers have made Chuba Hubbard a key part of their weekly game plan as he has 15-plus rushing attempts in six games and 2-plus catches in 11 games this season. Game after game they continue to show that they want to feed him the ball. 

The best time to do that is against a weakened run defense, which brings us to the Panthers’ week sixteen opponent - the Packers. They are 10th in True Matchup Rank and are allowing 13.0% Points over Average to opposing running backs. This kind of juicy matchup paired with the steady usage means it’s wheels up for Chuba Hubbard this week. Look for him to hit pay dirt and help advance some squads to the championship. 

Boyd Armstrong

WR: Brandin Cooks - Dallas Cowboys

Brandin Cooks has been a frustratingly inconsistent asset to roster in 2023, flashing incredible upside as a deep threat despite his age with five performances of 15.0-plus fantasy points between Week 6 and Week 13 (Week 7 Bye). Outside of that mini-stretch of flex-worthy production, Cooks has existed in a disappointing tier of aging regression amongst several declining veterans. Fortunately for fantasy managers, Cooks is entering the championship weeks with two serviceable matchups on tap – none more exciting than Week 16. The Cowboys (10-4) look to take hold of the NFC East with a win over the Dolphins (10-4) who are attempting to wrap up the AFC East in the same contest. Oddsmakers have a positive game script on tap for both offenses with a slate-leading projected Over/Under of 50.5 points that favors the Dolphins by a mere 1.0 points. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities for every member of the Cowboys offense with Brandin Cooks looking like a high-upside sleeper considering the defensive matchup. The Dolphins allow 27.8 PPG to opposing wide receivers, ranked 8th in True Matchup Rank while allowing an expected increase of 11.0% in Points Over Average. They also rank 10th in passing production allowed to rival quarterbacks, giving up 13.7 points (11.0% Points Over Average) of passing production alone per game. Cooks has been an undeniably risky asset in your lineups as of late but his propensity for unpredictable vintage performances coupled with a positive game script and exploitable coverage assignment makes the veteran receiver a start-worthy flex in Week 16.

Matt Ward

TE: Isaiah Likely - Baltimore Ravens

Isaiah Likely has performed admirably in every single instance in which he has been forced to take over for Mark Andrews as the Ravens' defacto TE1. His rookie season flashed several moments of his potential upside as one of the team’s top pass-catchers and the same notes are being struck in 2023. The second-year tight end was dreadfully disappointing in his first two starts, combining for just 8.0 points after going scoreless in his first full game. Since returning from the Ravens bye, Likely has posted a TE3 (19.3 Points) and TE5 (18.0 Points) in back-to-back showings. He has earned six or more targets in three consecutive contests while averaging 77.2% of the offensive snaps and a route participation rating of 100.0%. Likely has also earned four red zone targets in the past two games, leading all members of the Ravens' offense as the youngster is quickly developing into the offense's top-scoring threat between the 20s. Managers may be justifiably hesitant to start Likely against a defense that ranks dead last in True Matchup Rank to the tight end position but as we have made evident by his route participation, Likely operates as an inline tight end, slot receiver, and out wide with an extensive route tree. Running against the 49ers has proven to be much more difficult than passing in 2023, suggesting that the Ravens will need to lean heavily on Lamar Jackson’s arm and Likely’s hands if they hope to claim the throne of the AFC.

Matt Ward

BUSTS

QB: Sam Howell - Washington Commanders

I desperately want to label Sam Howell as the next -fill in the blank- for whatever other carefree gunslinger you’ve enjoyed watching in the past. Unfortunately, that simply is not Howell’s game. He still leads the league in passing attempts but he has dropped to 7th in passing yards while leading the league in interceptions and sacks. The incredible yardage totals that usually follow a pass-heavy offense have lacked this season with Howell. Nevertheless, the second-year quarterback was able to act as a serviceable or even great fantasy option because of the sheer passing volume in this offense. The sophomore quarterback has thrown for at least 30 pass attempts in all but 3 games this year, routinely surpassing more than 40 pass attempts in a single game. Pair that with a terrible defense, and you get a player constantly in garbage time, almost like a mini Matt Ryan but not nearly as good. Losing Brian Robinson Jr. seems to have a lot of damage to the state of the offense, with the team stalling or failing to convert on 3rd and 4th down. Week 15 marked one of Howell’s worst games of the season and he may have made up for it if he stayed in, but Jacoby Brissett took over in the 3rd quarter. Howell will still be the starter but it seems like he doesn’t have as long of a leash as we thought. Playing against a Jets defense that, despite last week, allows the 4th fewest fantasy points over average to QBs, Howell could implode at the worst time. I’d rather go with a floor option.

Themi Michalakis

RB: Javonte Williams - Denver Broncos

Coming into the year returning from a serious knee injury, Javonte Williams' fantasy managers had tempered expectations but somehow he has underperformed even the low bar that was set. Williams is averaging less than 9.5 Half PPR points per game and has hardly been an asset that you can feel comfortable plugging into your lineup. In his 13 healthy games this season, Javonte only has five RB2 or better weekly finishes and has ended up outside of the top 36 running backs a shocking eight times. 

This kind of middling production doesn’t help fantasy teams even if the name attached to it is a known player. Nearly 70% of his games have landed in less than 10.0 half PPR points. Seven out of ten times he is more likely to hurt your lineup than he is to help it. With this being the most important week of the season and a bad matchup against the Patriots on the horizon, I would not be looking to take the risk. 

The Patriots have been a tough defense against the run. They sit 28th in True Matchup Rank, allowing negative -18% Points Over Average to running backs. That makes them a bottom-five matchup in the league and one that should be dreaded by fantasy managers. The Patriots have clamped up the likes of Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, and Breece Hall, holding all of them under 6.0 Half-PPR points.  A shaky performer like Javonte Williams is hard enough to start this late in the year but when the horrendous matchup is taken into account he becomes clearly avoidable and someone who should be swapped out of lineups as managers make their push for the finals. 

Boyd Armstrong

WR: Terry McLaurin - Washington Commanders

Staying in step with the fade of Sam Howell and the Commanders' offense, Terry McLaurin finds himself as a low-floor bust in this week’s column. The veteran wideout is coming off a season-best outing in Week 15 that saw McLaurin catch six of 12 targets for 141 yards and one touchdown. Outside of his 26.1-point outburst against the Rams, the Commanders' top wideout has just one WR1 finish to his name this season and is averaging just 10.3 PPR PPG during his last five starts – including his incredible Week 15 heights. Heading into Week 16, the Commanders (4-10) are on the road to face the Jets (5-9) with Vegas betting lines setting the projected Over/Under scoring total at 37.5 points with the Jets as surprising 3.0-point home favorites. Oddsmakers are favoring defense over offense in this matchup as the Jets house a unit that gives up just 315.7 scrimmage yards (5th) with 170.4 passing yards (2nd) and 20.5 points (11th) per game. The Jets' secondary is amongst the most stalwart units in the NFL as they concede just 19.2 combined PPG to opposing wideout corps. They rank 32nd in Broto Fantasy’s true matchup rank as the worst possible defense to face for receivers, boasting a negative Points Over Average of (-)42.0%. McLaurin’s ceiling performance in the previous week is not nearly enough to ignore the overwhelming amount of mediocrity the wideout has put on display in 2023, especially not against a top-tier defensive matchup.

Matt Ward

TE: Tucker Kraft - Green Bay Packers

The Packers (6-8) hit the road in Week 15, drawing a matchup against the bottom-feeding Panthers (2-12) as the two hopefuls attempt to end a middling 2023 season on a positive note. Betting lines have the road team Packers favored by 5.0 points with the projected Over/Under representing a lowly implied scoring total of just 37.5 Points. The Panthers have been a surprisingly good passing defense on paper this season, largely in part due to their inability to stop the run coupled with game scripts constantly favoring their opponents with early leads and an offensive unit on the other side of the ball that has failed to close the gap on every occasion this season. With all of that in mind, the Panthers still allow just 301.9 scrimmage yards (2nd), and 173.7 passing yards (3rd) to their opponents on average. Tucker Kraft has been thrust into the role as the Packers starting tight end sans Luke Musgrave and has done well to impress the team’s coaches and fantasy managers alike. The rookie tight end has skyrocketed up Expert Consensus Rankings as the TE11 overall on the week after posting three top-12 finishes in his first four starts. Unfortunately for those who look to stream readily available tight end options – even in the playoffs – Kraft represents a very risky choice for advancement in the final two weeks. The Panthers rank 31st in True Matchup Rank to opposing quarterbacks (13.3 Points Allowed/-29.0% Points Over Average), 31st to opposing wide receivers (23.3 Points Allowed/-27.0% Points Over Average), and 29th to opposing tight ends (7.3 Points Allowed/-26.0% Points Over Average). Although Kraft’s rookie season production has been admittedly encouraging, there is nothing that suggests that the young tight end will be able to overcome such a blatantly horrendous matchup.

Matt Ward

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