Unfortunately, Week 15 was a low-scoring week. I chose to go more contrarian vs chalk and it ended up costing me. Here’s a quick look back.
QB: Brock Purdy- 25.68, Matthew Stafford- 18.52
RB: CMC- 44.7, James Cook- 39.1, Kyren Williams- 29.5
WR: Cooper Kupp- 28.1, Noah Brown- 22.2, Jayden Reed- 17.2, Curtis Samuel- 21.1
TE: David Njoku- 29.4
D/ST: Bears- 17
My best GPP lineup didn’t cash, sadly. Here’s the lineup:
QB: Brock Purdy- 25.68
RB: Kyren Williams- 29.5
RB: Ezekiel Elliott- 9.6
WR: Rasheed Shaheed- 6.6
WR: Jaylin Hyatt- 0
WR: Deebo Samuel- 21.9
TE: Chig Okonkwo- 6.6
FLEX: CMC- 44.7
D/ST: Jets D/ST- 2
For a total of 146.58 points! I had the right running backs but spent too much salary on them as it left me paper thin at WR. On to Week 16!
Week 16 DraftKings slate
Games to target:
1. IND @ ATL - 44.5 O/U
Implied totals: IND 21.5; ATL 23
2. DET @ MIN - 46.5 O/U
Implied totals: DET 24.75; MIN 21.75
3. JAX @ TB - 43.5 O/U
Implied totals: JAX 21; TB 22.5
4. DAL @ MIA – 51.5 O/U
Implied totals: DAL- 25; MIA- 26.5
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
Joe Flacco ($5,500)
Flacco has back-to-back games of 22+ fantasy points. A road game in a dome against a CJ Stroud-less Texans team sounds like a good recipe to me. Over the last 3 weeks, the Browns rank 2nd in passing rate at 67.14%. Flacco also has 3 consecutive games with 44+ passing attempts, meaning he has the trust of HC Kevin Stefanski and should have your trust as well.
Trevor Lawrence ($6,600)
Lawrence is as high as I’m willing to go in cash this week. Lawrence can beat the Bucs via the air or ground. He ranks 4th in passing attempts and 9th in passing yards as well as 9th in rushing attempts, 10th in rushing yards and 8th in rushing TDs. Lawrence makes for a strong cash play in Week 16. Lawrence did enter the concussion protocol after his Week 15 game so make sure to check his status prior to kickoff.
Other options: Nick Mullens ($5,300), Gardner Minshew ($5,900), Geno Smith ($5,800)
Running Back
Rachaad White ($7,400)
White has been getting the job done on the ground lately with three consecutive games of 20+ rushes. Week 16 should see White thrive in the passing game with the Jaguars defense ranking as the 3rd best matchup for opposing receiving backs.
Breece Hall ($6,100)
The Jets were blown out by Miami in Week 15 so Hall was unable to get anything going. Prior to Week 15, Hall had 3 straight games of 8+ targets. With QB Trevor Siemian likely to start (QB Zach Wilson still in concussion protocol), Hall should eat up plenty of short range targets against a Commanders defense that ranks as the 5th best matchup for opposing RBs.
Other options: James Conner ($5,900), Jonathan Taylor ($7,200)
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson ($8,100)
Jefferson earned 10 targets in his 1st game with QB Nick Mullens, which should bode well for him in Week 16. The Lions defense ranks as the 6th best matchup for opposing WRs. Mullens is competent enough to feed Jefferson.
Mike Evans ($7,600)
With the Bucs able to run the ball well the past two weeks, Evans has managed just six targets per game. The Jaguars defense ranks as the 28th best matchup for running backs via rushing. Evans ranks 11th in Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) and air yards share at 41.2%.
Other options: Drake London ($5,100), Garrett Wilson ($5,800), Tyreek Hill ($9,600)
Tight End
Trey McBride ($5,700)
McBride has been the apple of QB Kyler Murray’s eyes. McBride has 7+ targets in 6 of his last 7 games and ranks 8th in Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR). The volume is there for McBride, which makes him an easy cash play.
David Njoku ($5,300)
Njoku has been smashing lately. He has 3 TDs over his past two games as well as 90+ receiving yards in each of those two games. Njoku ranks 10th in Weighted Opportunity Rating, 4th in targets and target share at 20.2% and 2nd in redzone opportunities. Another boon to playing Njoku this week is the Texans defense being the 4th best matchup for opposing TEs.
D/ST
Cleveland Browns ($3,400)
QB Case Keenum is expected to start again for the Houston Texans with QB CJ Stroud out with a concussion. Keenum was sacked 3 times and threw 1 INT against the pass-funnel that is the Titans defense. Insert the Browns defense, who rank 5th in pressure rate at 25.9%, and Keenum should be in for a long day.
Favorite stacks:
1. Nick Mullens + Justin Jefferson + Jordan Addison/T.J. Hockenson. I do like just playing the Vikings stack, however, Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta make excellent bring backs.
2. Joe Flacco + Amari Cooper + David Njoku. Cleveland is cheap and easy to stack, I don’t like any bring backs from the Houston side.
3. Baker Mayfield + Mike Evans + Rachaad White with Zay Jones bring back, if Zay Jones is active. This game is cheap and easy to stack and has plenty of interchangeable pieces to get unique.
GPP Plays:
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields ($7,100)
Fields is always live to break a slate. He gets a great matchup in the Cardinals, who rank as the 6th best matchup for opposing QBs. Fields ranks 3rd in both rushing attempts and rushing yards.
I also like my cash QB recommendations for GPPs.
Running Back
Raheem Mostert ($7,300)/De’Von Achane ($7,100)
HC Mike McDaniel had to have watched the Bills tape last week where they just punched the Dallas defense right in the face. Achane and Mostert are quick and should be able to gash the Dallas front seven if the offensive line can get some push.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000)
Gibbs is expensive, however, I anticipate him being used early and often against an aggressive Vikings defense. QB Jared Goff will be under siege which should lead to plenty of short range targets for Gibbs. Gibbs ranks 7th in targets, 9th in rushing yards/gm, 3rd in yards/carry and 9th in target share at 12%, expect the rookie to be used on the ground and through the air.
Other options: Jerome Ford ($5,400), Aaron Jones ($6,400), D’Onta Foreman ($4,700)
I like my cash options at RB as well for GPPs this week.
Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf ($6,700)
The Titans defense ranks as the 3rd best matchup for opposing WRs and no one in that secondary can cover Metcalf. With QB Geno Smith back under center, Metcalf could have a huge day.
Amari Cooper ($6,400)
Cooper has accumulated 22 targets over his last two games which has resulted in a total of 11 receptions for 186 yards and 1 TD. The Texans defense sits as the 13th best matchup for opposing WRs, which Cooper should be able to take advantage of.
Other options: Jordan Addison ($6,000), Zay Jones ($4,200)/Parker Washington ($3,800)
I also like my cash options for GPPs this week.
Tight Ends
TE TJ Hockenson ($5,800)
Most will look to pay down this week at TE, so using Hockenson can give you a big advantage. Hockenson ranks 1st in targets, receptions, target share at 23.7% and TTaV (True Target Value). Hockenson also ranks 2nd in receiving yards and 5th in redzone opportunities going into his revenge game against the Lions, who rank as the 7th best matchup for opposing TEs.
Other options: Jake Ferguson ($3,100)
D/ST
Minnesota Vikings D/ST - ($2,500)
QB Jared Goff struggles against pressure and the Vikings defense ranks 10th in pressure rate. The Vikings are also one of the cheapest D/ST on the slate, allowing you to pay up elsewhere.
I’m sticking with my cash D/ST for GPPs.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
All three of my Lone ranger picks hit last week, bringing me up to 15-13 on the season.
WR Zay Jones ($4,200)
Zay Jones, if healthy, should be able to cause headaches for the Bucs’ secondary. Zay Jones has 30 targets over his last 3 games. If Jones can’t go, WR Parker Washington makes for an intriguing play.
Have a great Week 16 of DFS! Win big and be kind to each other!
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By Clayton Jones aka @FF_Pulse_88
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.