Attention to exclusive and advanced analytics can give managers an advantage over the average competitor. However, the noise of unnecessary statistics can make the process of using advanced statistics quite intimidating. Here at Broto Fantasy, we aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the FF player by giving you every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.
In this recurring weekly series, we will highlight each of Broto Fantasy's exclusive statistics and use these numbers to project player validity throughout the NFL season.
A new crop of talent has taken the league by storm, specifically the budding talent that arrived from the 2021 NFL Draft. Several of those players earned themselves the reputations of “generational talents.”
Now that ten weeks of the NFL season are in the books, let's take a look at the leading second-year players and review how they are faring in our True Value rankings thus far.
TRUE THROW VALUE
True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback's full volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Fantasy managers can essentially understand this as adjusted fantasy points per pass attempt.
Justin Fields - Chicago Bears
True Throw Value: 0.471
Ranking: QB16
Justin Fields has cemented himself as one of the most lethal dual-threat quarterbacks to ever step foot on an NFL field. The Bears 2021 first-round pick etched his name in the history books in Week 9, rushing for 178 yards, the most in regular season history for a quarterback. Fields followed that up in Week 10 with another record-altering performance, posting 147 rushing yards, the seventh-highest total in a single game. Elite rushing ability has quietly covered up the ever-growing value of Fields’ pass attempts. The Bears coaching staff did not allow their young quarterback to attempt more than 25 passes until Week 6 against the Commanders. Since that fateful night, Fields has completed 64.1% of his pass attempts for 620 yards, eight touchdowns and only two turnovers. The magic he creates in the backfield as a scrambler has opened up much easier passing lanes downfield for the young quarterback and his favorite targets.
Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars
True Throw Value: 0.457
Ranking: QB17
The slightest of margins separates Trevor Lawrence from fellow 2021 draft mate Justin Fields, thus earning the Jaguars quarterback the right as co-leader in this week’s True Value report. Lawrence overcame his early-season sophomore slump with four QB1 performances in his last five contests. The former first overall selection has amassed 2,334 passing yards (8th) with 13 passing touchdowns (12th) in ten games this season. Lawrence still has a long way to go to live up to his label as a generational talent but he has looked confident and capable in his second year under center.
Zach Wilson - New York Jets
True Throw Value: 0.263
Ranking: QB24
Jets fans were sold a false bill of goods when it comes to former second-overall selection Zach Wilson. The promiscuous play-caller has completed just 57.5% of his pass attempts this season, throwing five interceptions with only four touchdowns in 2022. He has amassed 1,202 passing yards (200.3 YDS/G) in six starts and is putting up an inexcusable 0.43 fantasy points per dropback (QB21) and 12.8 PPG (QB27). An encouraging outlier metric in Wilson's development is his accuracy when attempting passes in a clean pocket. The former BYU quarterback is surgical when afforded extra time, evident by his clean pocket completion percentage of 71.4% (QB10), per PFF. There is still time for the 23-year-old quarterback to course-correct his career but as of now, he appears to be wildly off the rails of expected progression.
TRUE TARGET VALUE
A derivative of True Throw Value. True Target Value analyzes a player's quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their quarterback's True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable said player's targets are. The higher the value, the more projected points.
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase - Cincinnati Bengals
True Target Value: 8.91
Ranking: WR1
Ja’Marr Chase has not only lived up to his generational label but has somehow exceeded all expectations. The fifth overall pick in 2021 succumbed to the sophomore slump during the early portions of the 2022 season only to regress in a massively positive manner. Chase recorded two consecutive outings as the WR1 overall in Weeks 6 & 7 prior to suffering a significant hip injury. The second-year wideout maintained a 27.7% target share (WR14) over seven games, hauling in 47 receptions for 605 yards and six touchdowns. Chase was averaging 20.2 PPG (WR6) before his unfortunate designation to the injured reserve and should return to dominating opposing defensive backs as soon as he is healthy. The former top-five 2021 selection stands in a tier of his own in comparison to his positional peers, earning him the top spot among not only his draft mates, but every player in the NFL.
Jaylen Waddle - Miami Dolphins
True Target Value: 4.74
Ranking: WR14
Jaylen Waddle has quickly established himself as a star receiver in his own right, overcoming every negative offseason narrative surrounding the Dolphins offense. Waddle is averaging 17.5 PPG (WR8) with 51 receptions for 878 yards and six touchdowns on a 22.3% target share. What makes Waddle's second-season heroics even more impressive is his ability to consistently put up elite production while sharing the field with fellow speedster Tyreek Hill. The gargantuan leap in progression of third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the addition of offensive super genius Mike McDaniel has turned the Dolphins into a legit Super Bowl contender, seemingly overnight. Waddle will continue to be a consistent high-scoring asset for as long as the current offensive staples remain.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts - Atlanta Falcons
True Target Value: 3.88
Ranking TE6
The conservative play calling of the Falcons coaching staff coupled with the erratic and errant delivery of quarterback Marcus Mariota has stymied an important developmental period in Kyle Pitts’ young career. His historic rookie season has been met by a sophomore decline like no other in the draft class. Pitts is averaging a mere 7.6 PPG in 2022 (TE20), recording just 313 yards and two touchdowns on 25 receptions through nine games. The glaring positive is the generational prospect's ability to earn targets at an unmatchable rate. Pitts is pulling a 27.3% target share (TE2) with a 33.8% target rate (TE1) but has run just 160 routes (TE24) all year. The underlying and peripheral analytics suggest that Pitts is every bit of the generational talent we expected. Unfortunately, volume and opportunity are the great equalizers in fantasy football. The Falcons are simply not passing at a high enough volume to support any pass-catching options.
Pat Freiermuth - Pittsburgh Steelers
True Target Value: 2.40
Ranking: TE21
Pat Freiermuth’s connection to Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts via the 2021 NFL Draft will forever keep the Steelers tight end under the shadow of his positional draft mate. First, Pitts’ historic rookie season overshadowed Freiermuth’s highly-impressive inaugural campaign where he caught 60 passes on 79 targets for 497 yards and seven touchdowns. Under normal circumstances, managers would have been drooling over Freiermuth’s rare rookie breakout but such was not the case. Now, in their second season, Pitts’ woeful opportunities in a non-existent Falcons passing offense have taken center stage in the tight end lexicon while the Steelers' second-year star quietly out-produces his peers. Freiermuth is smashing his lowly True Target Value ranking with 10.3 PPG (TE8), catching 36 passes for 403 yards and one touchdown through eight games this season. There is no telling what Freiermuth would be capable of if he was not being held back by a disastrously inefficient rookie quarterback in Kenny Pickett. The Steelers tight end is pulling a 19.4% target share (TE6) with an impressive 0.38 fantasy points per route run (TE10). The former Penn State product will never have the clout of previously mentioned options but he certainly has the production to make a name for himself as one of the league’s top tight ends.
TRUE AIR YARDS
The total amount of yards a pass traveled before getting to the receiver adjusted for the completion probability of the throw.
Wide Receiver
Jaylen Waddle - Miami Dolphins
Total True Air Yards: 473
True aDOT: 6.3
Ranking: WR7
Jaylen Waddle has developed and progressed in all facets of the game, improving his laughable 3.8-yard True aDOT in 2021 to an impressive 6.3 yards in 2022. The former Alabama product is no longer confined to manufactured touches near the line of scrimmage, showcasing crafty separation abilities in all areas of the field. Waddle ranks in the top seven receivers in both True Air Yards (473/WR7) and Realized True Air Yards (327/WR3), boasting an insane downfield conversion rate of 69.1%. Waddle's speed, separation and knack for posting incredible numbers after the catch have helped establish the young star receiver as one of the most well-rounded and dominant forces in the game today.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts - Atlanta Falcons
Total True Air Yards: 346
True aDOT: 6.4
Ranking: TE2
True Air Yards and True Average Depth of Target (True aDOT) are excellent tools for identifying the league’s best downfield separators. Managers need no further evidence of the Falcons' haphazard misuse of their unicorn tight end than Pitts' True Air Yards profile. Pitts sits behind only Mark Andrews as the league leader in total True Air Yards at 346 with a league-leading True aDOT of 6.4 yards. Pitts' route running and athleticism rivals some of the league’s top wide receivers, unmatched by all of his tight end peers. Unfortunately, the second-year stud also leads all tight ends with 222 Unrealized True Air Yards, further highlighting the Falcons' inability to get the ball in the hands of their best playmaker.
TRUE PLAYER GRADES
A composite grade based on current-year production that evaluates past performance while analyzing trends to predict future production.
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars
True Player Grade: 61.2 (D)
Ranking: QB11
Lawrence has taken great strides to put his historically disastrous rookie season in the rearview. The Jaguars franchise quarterback is averaging 16.7 PPG (QB12) and has topped the QB1 tier in four of his last five contests. We will surely continue to see the former first-overall pick's True Player Grade on the rise. Lawrence has the opportunity to bury his rookie campaign if he can maintain his current production throughout the season.
Running Back
Rhamondre Stevenson - New England Patriots
True Player Grade: 88.1 (A-)
Ranking: RB8
The Patriots' fourth-round pick in 2021 has vastly exceeded all expectations, surprisingly surpassing both first-round running backs selected ahead of him (Najee Harris, Travis Etienne). Stevenson overtook Damien Harris as the team's leading back, tallying 66.3% of the offensive snaps, and 60.3% of the backfield rushing attempts this season, all while adding an impressive target share of 16.2%. The second-year running back has 618 rushing yards on 129 attempts (4.8 YPC), posting 227 receiving yards on 35 receptions with five total touchdowns in 2022. Stevenson's top-10 ranking in our True Player Grades indicated the oft-underrated running back can maintain his elite production ceiling as long as his opportunity share continues to rise.
Wide Receiver
Ja'Marr Chase - Cincinnati Bengals
True Player Grade: 92.9 (A)
Ranking: WR8
Bengals fans and fantasy managers alike are awaiting Ja'Marr Chase's return from injured reserve with bated breath. Chase was averaging 6.7 receptions, 10.6 targets and 86.4 yards per game. All indicators suggest Chase could top those already impressive numbers once healthy. This once-in-a-lifetime receiving prospect will look to continue his climb up the NFL’s pantheon of greatness immediately upon insertion into the active lineup.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth - Pittsburgh Steelers
True Player Grade: 44.5 (F)
Ranking: TE8
Pat Freiermuth’s low True Player Grade is more indicative of the dearth of meaningful talent at the tight end position than an indictment against the player himself. The Steelers' star tight end remains ranked inside of the top-10 players at the position in True Player Grade, averaging a respectable 10.3 PPG (TE8) which falls directly in line with his eighth-ranked rating of 44.5. Freiermuth should continue his TE1 form for all of 2022 and several years to come.
If you want to follow this series throughout the 2022 season, check out the other weekly reports here:
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.