Attempting to predict outcomes in the NFL can seem fairly easy when looking at it from a macro view. Anyone who follows the league can point out that one team may have a good offense and their opponent may have a bad defense, but if that's all there was to it, the exhilaration we feel from watching football every Sunday would cease to exist. When you zoom in on any game you’ll see the individual battles taking place all over the field. These are often where the real story is told, so let's dive into some of the Pro Football Focus data on matchups between Wide Receivers and Defensive Backs that could really tip the scales in Week Eleven.
Golden Opportunity WR of the Week
Brandon Aiyuk vs Arizona Cardinals
Nevada Sports Net
There are only two players with two week 11 individual matchups that PFF is giving a 100.0 matchup advantage, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. We know Brandon Aiyuk has been in the doghouse in the past, but he has been productive when playing a full allotment of snaps and Arizona’s defense will not have an answer for him.
Aiyuk has been the best pass-catcher in San Fran with an 81.2 PFF grade, catching 73% of his targets and averaging 1.96 yards per route run. The biggest mismatch will be on the outside where Aiyuk gets to see 51.1 graded Trayvon Mullen and 45.6 graded Marco Wilson. Mullen in particular is a dream matchup. He has missed a lot of time but has yet to break up a single pass this season while he has been on the field. PFF projects Brandon Aiyuk to face off against these two defenders for a total of 29 snaps. Here is the kicker, almost half of Aiyuk’s total yards have come after the catch. Wilson and Mullen both have sub-50.0 tackling grades as the cherry on top of their coverage struggles.
‘Better Luck Next Time’ WR of the Week
Alec Pierce vs Philadelphia Eagles
Michael Hickey/Getty Images
Despite the team’s current struggles, Indy’s rookie wide receiver Alec Pierce has been a bright spot for the Colts. The former Bearcat has shown a lot of potential and is garnering some attention with his big play reliability. Unfortunately for Colts fans, the hype train may have to be put on hold this week.
Alec Pierce runs over half his routes from the offensive right (defensive left) on the outside. This is where Darius “Big Play” Slay spends 61% of his snaps. Slay is looking to get right coming off his worst graded game of the season (49.9 vs Washington). The two other games in which he had a poor PFF grade, he bounced back the following week, improving his grade by 12.1 and 32.1 points, respectively. Even with his season-long numbers taking a hit in week 10, Slay has a 78.3 PFF coverage grade, is holding opposing receivers to 0.83 yards per route run and has only given up one touchdown all season. Pierce is projected to be covered by Slay for 22 snaps, giving him a measly 8.5 matchup advantage.
Dogfight of the Week
Curtis Samuel vs Desmond King II
The Commanders and Texans might not be the most exciting matchup on the slate but part of the reason I started this series was to zoom in and highlight the individual player battles that make football so great. That being said, I’d be remiss not to highlight Curtis Samuel and Desmond King II. Both of these players are somewhat in the midst of a career resurgence. Samuel has been a crucial part of Washington’s offense and King is having his highest graded season since 2018. King’s PFF grade is slightly better than Samuel’s (77.0 to 72.8) but King can still be beat. King is allowing a catch 70% of the time that he is targeted. Both Samuel and King are nearly identical in size as well, so there is no stature advantage in either direction. This should be a true battle of technique and mechanics. Samuel and Kings should see a ton of each other since both players play in the slot for the vast majority of their snaps. In a floundering NFC, the Commanders still have their sights set on the wild card. If that is going to come to fruition, they cannot drop a game to the lowly 1-7 Texans, and the reliable Curtis Samuel will have to do his part.
The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start/sit tool, player cards, exclusive statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more!
Check out patreon.com/BRotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.
By Taren Caravella
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.