Attention to exclusive and advanced analytics can give managers an advantage over the average competitor. However, the noise of unnecessary statistics can make the process of using advanced statistics quite intimidating. Here at Broto Fantasy, we aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the FF player by giving you every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.
In this recurring weekly series, we will highlight each of Broto Fantasy's exclusive statistics and use these numbers to project player validity throughout the NFL season.
Now that nine weeks of the NFL season are in the books, let's look at one undervalued player in each of our exclusive True Value Rankings that managers should be targeting on the dynasty trade market. These candidates are excellent targets for managers contending for a league title or rebuilding rosters in search of insulating value. Veteran players approaching the age cliff will be avoided while younger players with positive future trajectories will be awarded a premium
Without further ado, your top True Value Dynasty trade targets for Week 10 and beyond.
*Values based on 12-Team Superflex Leagues*
TRUE THROW VALUE
True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback's full volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Fantasy managers can essentially understand this as adjusted fantasy points per pass attempt.
Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars
Big Cat Country
True Throw Value: 0.456
Ranking: QB14
Consensus Dynasty Value: 2023 Mid 1st Round Rookie Pick
Managers have grown increasingly impatient waiting for Trevor Lawrence to rise to his reputation as a generational quarterback talent. The former first overall selection has regressed from his early-season output and is now averaging 16.2 PPG (QB15) with 2,075 passing yards, 152 rushing yards, and 14 total touchdowns (11 Pass/3 Rush). His accuracy and efficiency have taken major leaps from his disastrous rookie campaign with the second-year quarterback completing 64.3% of his passes with a clean pocket accuracy rating of 78.0%, per PFF. The developmental process has been slower than expected with Lawrence but his second-year strides are encouraging for his future as a viable QB1 in all fantasy formats. The dynasty trade market is devaluing Lawrence amidst the meteoric rise of fellow draftmate Justin Fields and third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. These market shifts have forced Lawrence to fall into a profitable range in comparison to his positional peers. Only two quarterbacks have emerged as viable top-6 picks in the 2023 rookie class (C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young). Turning a Mid-Late first-round rookie pick into a young, rising quarterback is an excellent strategy to gain a valuable edge in Superflex leagues. There will be no rookies in that proposed range who hold more protected future value than a second-year quarterback with an offense already catered to his talents. The Jaguars franchise has made active and aggressive moves to surround Lawrence with capable weapons. The team will undoubtedly continue to add talent to their arsenal in the upcoming offseason to go along with the recent acquisition of former Falcons star receiver Calvin Ridley. Lawrence has maintained a strong True Throw Value throughout the season, bolstered by a surprisingly solid floor of rushing production. The young quarterback has shown to be an efficient passer in high-volume game scripts and should maintain those numbers throughout his career with a continued rise in production as the organization floods the offense with new talent.
TRUE TARGET VALUE
A derivative of True Throw Value. True Target Value analyzes a player's quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their quarterback's True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable said player's targets are. The higher the value, the more projected points.
Chris Olave - New Orleans Saints
True Target Value: 4.90
Ranking: WR9
Consensus Dynasty Value: 2023 Mid 1st Round Rookie Pick
The True Value Prince of the wide receiver position. Chris Olave plays the position with a maturity and understanding far beyond his formative years as a rookie wide receiver. The Saints 2022 first-round pick has popped up on nearly every True Value Report this season, maintaining incredible efficiency alongside his team-leading production and opportunity share. Olave has buoyed 72 targets into 43 receptions for 618 yards (14.4 YPR) and two receiving touchdowns, averaging 14.6 PPG (WR16). His 27.0% target share ranks 15th among wide receivers this season, solidifying the young wideout as an elite threat, regardless of defensive matchup. Olave’s current dynasty market value of a single 2023 Mid 1st Round Rookie Pick is a fair asking price for both sides involved. The 2023 class is loaded with high-end running back talent but lacks the receiving depth and star power of years past. Olave has quickly established himself as a leading positional asset in dynasty and would likely be one of the first receivers selected off the board if he were to be inserted into the 2023 draft class. Insulated value is an understandable concern as the Saints front office has minimal draft capital and salary cap space to build a capable offense around their star receiver. Elite receivers find a way to produce regardless of the talent and situation that surrounds them. Olave epitomizes this theory, producing at an elite level with Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston delivering him targets this season. Managers looking to increase their firing power at the wide receiver position should not hesitate to match consensus value in a one-for-one trade for Olave, regardless of whether you are contending or rebuilding.
TRUE PLAYER GRADES
A composite grade based on current-year production that evaluates past performance while analyzing trends to predict future production.
In this report, we will be using True Player Grades to identify an undervalued trade target at the running back position.
Josh Jacobs - Las Vegas Raiders
True Player Grade: 92.3 (A)
Ranking: RB5
Consensus Dynasty Value: 2x 2023 Mid-2nd Round Rookie Draft Picks
Josh Jacobs has had a fantastic first half of the 2022 season, averaging 19.1 PPG (RB7). Jacobs has tallied 743 rushing yards on 138 attempts (5.4 YPC) and 172 receiving yards on 25 receptions with six total touchdowns this season, assuming a surprise three-down workhorse role as the Raiders leading running back. Jacobs is operating at an elite rate amidst his 83.2% (RB2) opportunity share. He leads the league in evaded tackles (78), creating 5.2 yards per touch (RB10). A lackadaisical start to his NFL career caused negative anchoring bias towards the former first-rounder’s current evaluation as a viable RB1 in dynasty circles. Managers are quick to forget that Jacobs is still just 24 years young and will enter the market as a free agent this offseason as the Raiders declined to pick up his fifth-year option. He is one of the few running backs that could see an unsuspecting rise in offseason value should he sign a lucrative contract with a high-powered offense. Managers are taking on some inherent risk as there is no guarantee Jacobs maintains value beyond the influx of running backs in the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft. A consensus dynasty value of two second-round rookie picks is a fair price when analyzing Jacob’s current production and future trajectory as a top-15 positional asset.
*All Consensus Dynasty Values derived from KeepTradeCut*
If you want to follow this series throughout the 2022 season, check out the other weekly reports here:
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.