With Week 9 of the NFL season in the books, Broto Co-Founder and Lead Fantasy Analyst Michael Petropoulos, Lead Writer Matt Ward and Analyst Clayton Jones have their eyes on three buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 10!
Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!
BUY LOW
Garrett Wilson WR - New York Jets
Garrett Wilson opened up his rookie season with a bang, going for over 100 yards and 2 TDs in just his second game ever. After that monster performance, Wilson looked like he could be a locked and loaded WR2 rest of season. Unfortunately, that did not come to fruition. There were several reasons for the lack of productivity from the stud rookie WR but two stand out the most. First, the Jets were controlling games with their rushing game and defense. Second, Garrett Wilson was not always on the field.
In Weeks 4-7, a stretch of games where the Jets went 4-0 with several commanding wins, Zach Wilson attempted just over 25 passes per game. Garrett Wilson saw no more than 6 targets in any game during that stretch and had respective snap percentages of 77, 56, 44 and 73. Despite the limited playing time and limited average number of targets, he was still the clear target share leader among Jets pass catchers.
In Week 7, Elijah Moore entered the Jets doghouse and Breece Hall tore his ACL, ending his impressive rookie season.
In Week 8, Garrett Wilson was unleashed.
Garrett Wilson played a then season high 88% of snaps in Week 8 against the New England Patriots, turning 7 targets into 6 receptions for 115 yards.
In Week 9, Garrett Wilson played a now career high 92% of snaps, seeing 9 targets for a whopping 36% target share. Wilson turned the nine targets into 8 receptions for 92 yards. Wilson accounted for nearly 60% of Zach Wilson’s passing yards as he was getting open with ease.
The Patriots and Bills are currently ranked 27th and 23rd, respectively, in True Matchup Rank. These were not easy matchups for Wilson but he was up for the challenge.
Wilson has been a top 15 PPR WR in three of the five games in which he has seen 7 or more targets this season. The Jets are now on their bye which means a desperate manager may be looking to move Wilson for cheap.
Take advantage and acquire the stud rookie while you still can.
Michael Petropoulos
Lamar Jackson QB - Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson had a sensational start to the 2022 season with an MVP trajectory, averaging 34.73 PPG including two back-to-back QB1 overall performances. Since Week 3, Jackson has finished inside the top-10 quarterbacks just once with a QB9 performance in Week 8. Nevertheless, the dual-threat quarterback is averaging 22.5 PPG (QB5) due to his unmatchable rushing prowess and early-season heroics. Jackson’s passing efficiency and overall production have suffered without the help of his top two targets Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman. Positive regression should be on the horizon as Jackson ranks 8th in True Throw Value (0.501) among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts this season. The market perception surrounding the former MVP remains rock solid, leaving little room for negotiation under regular circumstances. Fortunately, there are several different methods by which you can take advantage of your league market. An overlooked and underrated strategy is targeting desperate managers who have elite-upside players locked on a bye week. Jackson and the Ravens are set to take their mandated rest period in Week 10, backing managers into a corner who need wins to stay in the playoff hunt. Jackson returns from his Week 10 bye to a loaded table set with fantasy-friendly matchups. The Ravens have the added benefit of facing the Panthers, Jaguars, Falcons, Browns, and Steelers (x2) in five of their last seven games to close out the 2022 fantasy season. Finding replacement-level production for a player of Jackson’s caliber is next to impossible at this juncture of the season. Panic can open up countless avenues for market manipulation. If your current roster can withstand a single week of negative value/production, making a strong move for Jackson is a positive strategy for creating an unstoppable force once the playoffs arrive.
Matt Ward
Jamaal Williams RB - Detroit Lions
D’Andre Swift is a huge question mark. He continues to play through injury and see limited touches. Jamaal Williams, on the other hand, has a locked in role in the Detroit Lions offense that has led to him seeing the fifth most red zone touches in the NFL. The Detroit Lions defense is terrible, despite stymieing the Packers last week, so the Lions are going to need to continue to put up points to remain in games. Despite Williams having a very strong season, he is still underpriced and has a good chance to return value at cost throughout the rest of the season.
Williams also has a relatively friendly True Matchup Rank schedule for running backs:
Chicago Bears- 4th best
New York Giants- 28th best
Buffalo Bills- 16th best
Jacksonville Jaguars- 6th best
Minnesota Vikings- 29th best
New York Jets- 19th best
Carolina Panthers- 2nd best
Chicago Bears- 4th best
Go get a potential playoff winner in Jamaal Williams.
Clayton Jones
SELL HIGH
Justin Fields QB - Chicago Bears
NBC Sports
The newest member of the Konami Code QB Committee, Justin Fields just broke the NFL regular season record for rushing yards in a game by a QB, as he ran for 178 yards in Week 9 against the Dolphins. He also accounted for 4 TDs, so he unsurprisingly ended with over 40 fantasy points, winning weeks for his managers. Fields managers are on a high at the moment as the young QB has posted three straight weeks of at least 24 fantasy points in each, operating as the QB1 overall during this span. QB1 overall. You cannot beat that. Which is why right now is the perfect time to sell high.
While the Justin Fields hype takes over the fantasy universe, I implore you to look deeper and to take a breath. It was just five weeks ago when Fields was looking like a fantasy bust, not posting a single total above 15 points through the first four weeks. He did not top 20 points until Week 7. Obviously we know what has happened since then and Fields has nothing to thank more for this ascension than his legs.
Over the last four weeks, Justin Fields has ran for at least 60 yards in each game, averaging a whopping 107 rushing yards per game, including 3 rushing TDs. He has also posted back to back double digit passing TD performances. The last time he passed for two or more TDs was back in Week 1. Truly the perfect storm.
During this time, however, Fields has continued to struggle as a passer. He has just one game this season over 200 passing yards. Even during this hot three game stretch, Fields has averaged just 151 passing yards per game.
He is also due for a brutal stretch of matchups from Weeks 13-16, a crucial time for fantasy managers.
In Week 13, Fields gets the Green Bay Packers, ranked 28th in True Matchup Rank for opposing QBs. In Week 14, the final week of the fantasy regular season, Fields has a bye. In Week 15, when fantasy playoffs kickoff, Fields gets the Philadelphia Eagles, ranked 31st in True Matchup Rank. In Week 16, the fantasy semifinals, Fields gets the Buffalo Bills, ranked 30th in True Matchup Rank.
Is a running QB who has averaged less than 150 passing yards a game this season someone you want to trust in three straight bottom five matchups with your season on the line? With a bye mixed in, as well?
I am always a proponent for moving the newest hot QBs in trades for help in other positions and Justin Fields fits this bill to a tee. Ride the Justin Fields hype and move him for an impact piece now.
Michael Petropoulos
Cole Kmet TE - Chicago Bears
Cole Kmet is fresh off the heels of a 22.0-point fantasy performance against the Dolphins, marking the best game of his young career. He hauled in five of his six targets for 41 yards, needing two touchdowns to cross the 20.0-point threshold. Prior to that contest, the Bears' tight end had yet to crack TE1 territory. The third-year hopeful has not recorded more than 45 receiving yards in a single game while his highest-scoring week topped out at 9.1 PPR points (TE13). He is averaging a mere 6.4 PPG with an expected total of 4.9 PPG, creating a negative differential of 1.5 due to his recent surge in unsustainable touchdown production. One of the causalities of this differential is Kmet’s target share drastically regressing from his 2021 season total of 17.7% (TE11) to a mediocre 14.3% (TE17) in 2022 despite his snap share (93.6%) ranking 2nd among all TEs this season. There is no reality in which Kmet maintains a two-touchdown ceiling in order to boost his lack of peripheral production. The deafening hype surrounding Justin Fields is rubbing off on the Bears' lackluster receiving options. Hopefully, managers can take advantage of the echo chamber and rid themselves of Kmet’s low output.
Matt Ward
Allen Lazard WR - Green Bay Packers
The entire fantasy community watched Sunday as the Green Bay Packers offense stumbled further into the depths of ineptitude against the Detroit Lions. This game was my last hope that the Packers offense could figure it out but they somehow played even worse than anyone could have imagined. Not all is bad in Packer Land though, as Allen Lazard has been the lone bright spot in the Green Bay offense.
Lazard has been the main cog in the Packers offense, operating as Rodgers’ clear favorite target. While he has been a consistent WR2 throughout the season, he has just one top ten finish in half ppr scoring, highlighting the lack of the ceiling in the current Packers offense.
The Packers rank 28th in plays per game this season and are tied for the 6th most turnovers in the league. Basically, this team struggles score, does not run enough plays to accumulate high end fantasy points and frequently turns the ball over.
You can bank on Lazard continuing to be the only bright spot in the offense or you can trade him now at peak value before he joins the sinking ship. Trade him now.
Clayton Jones
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.