Attention to exclusive and advanced analytics can give managers an advantage over the average competitor. However, the noise of unnecessary statistics can make the process of using advanced statistics quite intimidating. Here at Broto Fantasy, we aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the FF player by giving you every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.
In this recurring weekly series, we will highlight each of Broto Fantasy's exclusive statistics and use these numbers to project player validity throughout the NFL season.
The 2022 rookie class immediately made their mark on the league with several unsuspecting early breakouts. Not all first-year players have found success as we have several high-profiled rookies underperforming, as well. Now that eight weeks of the NFL season are in the books, let’s look at how the new breed of fantasy talent is faring at the halfway point of their inaugural season.
TRUE THROW VALUE
True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback's full volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Fantasy managers can essentially understand this as adjusted fantasy points per pass attempt.
Bailey Zappe - New England Patriots
True Trow Value: 0.494
Rank: QB12 (Rookie QB1)
Bailey Zappe looked incredibly poised and confident during his fill-in as the Patriots starting quarterback. The fourth-round rookie out of Western Kentucky by way of Houston Baptist completed 70.7% of his pass attempts through Weeks 4-7 with 781 passing yards and five touchdowns. Zappe will continue to back up Mac Jones when the former first-round pick is healthy but has proven to be a capable fill-in when needed.
Kenny Pickett - Pittsburgh Steelers
True Throw Value: 0.300
Rank: QB41 (Rookie QB2)
The strength of the 2022 rookie quarterback class was highly critiqued as a low-talent group with several question marks surrounding each prospect. Kenny Pickett was anticipated as the most pro-ready prospect of the bunch with an elongated collegiate tenure culminating in an ACC championship on his resume. The stark drop-off in True Throw Value between Pickett and Zappe indicates that the first-round pick from Pitt may not be as prepared as once presumed. Pickett has thrown only two touchdowns to go alongside eight interceptions in his first five games, completing 67.9% of his attempts for 962 yards. The hope is that increased repetitions as the starter will help Pickett improve as a passer but as a 24-year-old rookie, the outlook is not a positive one.
Malik Willis - Tennessee Titans
True Throw Value: N/A
Ranking: UNR
Malik Willis got his first start as an NFL quarterback in Week 8, supplanting an injured Ryan Tannehill as the lead signal-caller. Willis completed 6/10 pass attempts for 55 yards with one interception, appearing lost and confused on nearly every snap. The Titans rookie does not meet the minimum threshold for pass attempts for a True Throw Value ranking, a further indictment against the struggling quarterback.
TRUE TARGET VALUE
A derivative of True Throw Value. True Target Value analyzes a player's quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their quarterback's True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable said player's targets are. The higher the value, the more projected points.
Chris Olave - New Orleans Saints
Sports Illustrated
True Target Value: 4.95
Ranking: WR8 (Rookie WR1)
Selected as the third wide receiver off the board in 2022, Chris Olave is vastly out-performing all of his positional peers despite developing with Andrew Dalton and Jameis Winston as his quarterbacks. Olave is leading all rookie receivers with 14.8 PPG (WR16), catching 37 passes on 67 targets (26.4%) for 547 yards and two touchdowns. The crafty deep threat is the only rookie ranked inside the top 36 players in True Target Value this season, establishing himself as a league-winning asset in fantasy football. The former Ohio State standout has ascended above all others in the race to NFL dominance.
Romeo Doubs - Green Bay Packers
True Target Value: 3.58
Ranking: WR39 (Rookie WR2)
Romeo Doubs scraped and clawed his way up a depleted Packers depth chart to find himself as the starting wide receiver alongside Allen Lazard. The fourth-round rookie wideout from Nevada has had some up-and-down performances, averaging 9.6 PPG (WR50) with just one week in WR1 territory. Still, the promising wideout has already surpassed several of the receivers drafted before him, including teammate Christian Watson, in both usage and production. Doubs has earned 49 targets (18.1%), catching 30 for 296 yards and three touchdowns. The Packers offensive desperation leaves Doubs in an excellent position to catapult his development in year one.
George Pickens - Pittsburgh Steelers
True Target Value: 2.94
Ranking: WR62 (Rookie WR3)
George Pickens' takeover as the Steelers WR1 is imminent. A trade deadline transaction that shipped Chase Claypool cross-conference to the Bears is merely an expedited measure to the inevitable. Pickens has recorded 26 receptions for 338 yards and one touchdown, earning a 15.5% target share (44 TGT) this season. The departure of Claypool should ultimately increase Pickens’ opportunity share, opening up the gateway to high-end production. The only thing holding the sensational rookie back is the continued struggles of fellow 2022 draft mate Kenny Pickett.
Garrett Wilson - New York Jets
True Target Value: 2.87
Ranking: WR64 (Rookie WR4)
It did not take Garrett Wilson long to put NFL defenders on notice. In Week 2, Wilson caught eight passes on 14 targets for 102 yards and two touchdowns, amassing 30.0 PPR fantasy points (WR6). A change in quarterback and play-calling philosophy has since capped Wilson’s sensational upside as an elite wideout. The first-round receiver has recorded 34 receptions on 59 targets (21.2%) for 429 yards but has not found the endzone since his two-touchdown performance in Week 2. Wilson’s fate is in the shaky hands and erratic delivery of second-year quarterback Zach Wilson.
Jahan Dotson - Washington Commanders
True Target Value: 2.59
Ranking: WR74 (Rookie WR5)
Jahan Dotson exploded onto the scene, catching four touchdowns with 12 receptions for 152 yards through the first four games. An untimely hamstring injury has kept the rookie sidelined for the Commanders' last four contests with no timetable for return. Dotson’s top-end production was supported by an unsustainable string of touchdown receptions. Managers are hopefully awaiting Dotson’s return to the lineup but should temper expectations for the young wideout. The former Penn State product will need to battle for targets against Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel before he becomes a reliable producer.
TRUE AIR YARDS
The total amount of yards a pass traveled before getting to the receiver, adjusted for the completion probability of the throw. This allows us to see how many air yards a player receives while removing variables like hail mary plays, last-second heaves, etc.
Chris Olave - New Orleans Saints
Total True Air Yards: 435 (6.9 True aDOT)
Ranking: WR2 (Rookie WR1)
Chris Olave has long been the 2022 poster boy for True Air Yards since the season commenced. Olave set the single-game rookie air yards record in Week 2 against the Buccaneers where he racked up 330 unadjusted air yards (3rd All-Time) on 13 targets (25.38 aDOT). The Saints stud wideout has finally been surpassed in our True Air Yards ranking by the ultimate deep threat in Tyreek Hill but remains entrenched as one of the best downfield separators in the entire NFL.
George Pickens - Pittsburgh Steelers
True Air Yards: 278 (6.5 True aDOT)
Ranking: WR27 (Rookie WR2)
The quintessential one-on-one weapon. Pickens creates violent separation off the line of scrimmage and on his break, earning opportunities at a True Average Depth of Target (True aDOT) of 6.5 yards. The up-and-coming Steelers receiver will need to improve his conversion rate of 54.7% if he expects to increase his weekly production amidst his new role as the starting wide receiver alongside a declining Diontae Johnson.
Drake London - Atlanta Falcons
True Air Yards: 267 (5.4 True aDOT)
Ranking: WR31 (Rookie WR3)
Drake London is an elite target earner, posting a 28.8% target share (WR9) on 49 targets this season. The big-bodied wideout has flashed the talent that led to him being selected as the first wide receiver in the 2022 draft (8th OVR). He has recorded 30 receptions for 349 yards and two touchdowns despite being trapped on a stone-age offense that refuses to pass the football. London has amassed 267 True Air Yards on his targets but ranks dead last among all receivers in True Target Value due to his menial volume. Until Arthur Smith acknowledges the pair of unicorns receiving threats he has on both sides of the hash marks, none of London’s peripheral metrics matter. Volume is king in fantasy football, and the Falcons have their offense turned down to an inaudible whisper.
Alec Pierce - Indianapolis Colts
Ture Air Yards: 248 (6.5 True aDOT)
Ranking: WR34 (Rookie WR4)
At 6’3” and 208 lbs Alec Pierce was considered a raw, prototypical receiver who would need a long leash to properly develop at the NFL level. Eight weeks into the 2022 season, Pierce has flipped that timeline, proving to be a valuable weapon for the Colts and one of the top rookie wide receivers in the class. The former Cincinnati star wideout has acclimated to the NFL at ease, catching 24 passes for 373 yards and three touchdowns. Pierce has been utilized as a field stretcher along the sidelines as well as a behemoth slot receiver over the middle. His athleticism and size have allowed for a decent start to his NFL career. Things are questionable moving forward with Sam Ehlinger under center but Pierce has done enough to prove himself worthy of a continued role on the offense.
Rome Doubs - Green Bay Packers
True Air Yards: 205 (4.5 True aDOT)
Ranking: WR57 (Rookie WR5)
Rome Doubs is the only rookie with a True aDOT below 5.0 yards and True Air Yards greater than 200. Doubs' volume of targets has allowed a higher cumulative total of True Air Yards than several of his peers. The Packers rookie has just six targets over 20 yards (WR45) this season but has supplemented that with 49 total targets (WR35) and 147 yards after the catch (WR27). Doubs will continue to feast on manufactured touches as long as he remains atop the Packers' depth chart.
TRUE PLAYER GRADES
A composite grade based on current-year production that evaluates past performance while analyzing trends to predict future production.
In this report, we will be focusing on the True Player Grades of the top five rookie running backs of the 2022 class.
Breece Hall - New York Jets
True Player Grade: 83.0 (B+)
Ranking: RB10 (Rookie RB1)
A season-ending knee injury halted one of the best rookie running back seasons we have seen in recent memory. Breece Hall recorded 463 rushing yards (5.8 YPC) with 19 receptions for 218 receiving yards and five total touchdowns through his first seven games. Hall averaged 16.4 PPG (RB10) despite a mere 54.1% opportunity share. The Jets rookie cemented himself as one of the league’s top talents at the position and will look to pick up where he left off once he returns.
Dameon Pierce - Houston Texans
True Player Grade: 78.1 (B-)
Ranking: RB11 (Rookie RB2)
Dameon Pierce is silencing all detractors (myself included) one brute force rush attempt at a time. The fourth-round running back is living up to his rising preseason value, tallying 15.4 PPG (RB14) on 539 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Pierce has added 98 receiving yards on 20 receptions, fixing a much-needed wrinkle in his game. The Texans are content on feeding Pierce a monstrous opportunity share of 70.0% (RB11), leading to a solid floor of consistent production.
Kenneth Walker III - Seattle Seahawks
True Player Grade: 52.5 (D-)
Ranking: RB24 (Rookie RB3)
Kenneth Walker III stepped up in the stead of the oft-injured Rashaad Penny as the Seahawks' lead back and has dominated nearly every touch. Walker’s meaningless stats from the start of the 2022 season have kept his True Player Grade at a modest 52.5 but the star rookie is rapidly rising as a league-winning asset. The second-round pick has five touchdowns over his last four games, surpassing the 100-yard threshold twice with two RB1 showings in Weeks 6 and 7. Walker is the future of the Seahawks franchise and he will continue to be utilized as such.
Tyler Allgeier - Atlanta Falcons
True Player Grade: 26.4 (F)
Ranking: RB42 (Rookie RB4)
Tyler Allgeier has received double-digit touches in all but one game this season yet is averaging just 8.1 PPG (RB44) with zero games in the RB1 tier. The rookie out of BYU has increased his snaps and opportunities in the wake of Cordarelle Patterson’s stint on injured reserve but has done nothing to earn an increased role moving forward. Allgeier has 324 rushing yards on 84 carries (3.9 YPC) with only five receptions for 71 yards. The rookie is merely keeping the seat warm for Patterson’s return.
Rachaad White - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
True Player Grade: 7.3 (F)
Ranking: RB54 (Rookie RB5)
Rachaad White is a talented pass-catcher with burner speed in the open field but holds little value as a stand-alone asset while Leonard Fournette is the lead back. White has flashed his explosiveness and receiving upside at several points this season, catching 17 passes for 128 yards. Unfortunately, he has done little to instill confidence in fantasy managers as his snaps (27.7%) and opportunity share (25.2%) remain stagnant behind his veteran teammate. Few rookies possess as much upside as White should he maintain the lead role but all managers can do is wait for that time to come.
If you want to follow this series throughout the 2022 season, check out the other weekly reports here:
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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by Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.