Clay's Corner: DFS Plays for Week 9

Welcome to the Clay’s DFS Plays for Week 9! Week 8 was a smash if you followed my advice, lets take a look at some of the big outputs:

• Tua Tagovailoa: 42.24 DK points

• Tony Pollard: 36.7 DK points

• Derrick Henry: 38.8 DK points

• Tyler Allgeier: 17.5 DK points

• Tyreek Hill: 39.5 DK points

• Jaylen Waddle: 36 DK points

• DJ Moore: 30.5 DK points

• DeAndre Hopkins: 36.9 DK points

• Mike Gesicki: 14.1 DK points

• Cowboys D/ST: 11 DK points

Time to carry over last week’s dominance in to Week 9! Let the #printfest begin!

Week 9 Draftkings

Games to target:

1. LAC @ ATL – 49.5 O/U 

Implied totals: LAC 26.25; ATL 23.25

2. MIA @ CHI – 44.5 O/U

Implied totals: MIA 24.75; CHI 19.75

3. SEA @ ARI

Implied totals: SEA 24.25; ARI 26.25

4. MIN @ WAS

Implied totals: MIN 23.5; WAS 20

Top Cash Plays:

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700)

The Finsider

A $500 dollar price increase isn’t scaring me off of Tua. The sluggish Cowboys offense obliterated this Bears defense for six touchdowns and over 400 yards of offense last week and Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel is significantly better at calling plays and scheming talent then Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy and OC Kellen Moore (still love Kellen Moore though). Add in top-tier talent in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and the Bears defense will be scrambling again. 

Josh Allen ($8,500)

The current QB1 on the season, Allen has outscored the QB2-QB5 bucket between 10 to 22 points, a nice separation. However, he really shines compared to the QB6-QB10 bucket, where he has outscored that range between 35 to 67 total points. Allen can clearly give you an advantage but does hinder your lineup salary wise. If you can find cheaper pieces to build around Allen in cash, then go for it. 

Justin Fields ($5,300)

Don’t look now but Fields has rushed for 60 or more yards in his past three games, translating into a free and easy six fantasy points. Fields also gets some help in the form of former Steelers WR Chase Claypool at the trade deadline. Matchup wise, Miami ranks as the 15th best matchup for opposing quarterbacks per Broto’s True Matchup Rank. The Dolphins have also allowed the fourth most passing yards in the NFL (2097) and the 5th highest yards per attempt. Fields is a great pay-down option this week.  

Running Back

Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,200) 

Rhamondre Stevenson has 20 or more fantasy points in five of his last six games. Stevenson also has back-to-back eight target games. Now he takes on an Indianapolis Colts team that ranks as the fourth best True Matchup rank for opposing running backs. For the cherry on top, the New England Patriots are 5.5 point favorites at home, meaning a positive game script for RBs is likely. 

Austin Ekeler ($8,800)

Even though the LA Chargers are struggling, Austin Ekeler is thriving. Ekeler has maintained a 50%+ rushing share in every game except Week 3 and has accrued a 17%+ target share in every game since Week 1. We all saw what D’Onta Foreman did to this inept Falcons defense last week. Ekeler should thrive this week. 

Aaron Jones ($7,400)

For all the things wrong with the Packers, Jones is right. Jones has back-to-back games of 20+ fantasy points and draws the third best True Matchup for opposing running backs in the Lions. Normally, I don’t like playing Packers players (pace of play rank 29th — per footballoutsiders.com), but the Lions force teams to play at a faster pace (Lions rank as the 7th best pace of play per footballoutsiders.com) meaning more opportunity than normal for Jones and the gang.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill ($8,500) and/or Jaylen Waddle ($7,400)

The Dolphins offense runs through both Hill and Waddle. Both WRs consistently have 50%+ of the target share in the Miami offense. I’m playing these two until a team can show they can stop them, which I don’t expect anytime soon.  

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900)

Just when the Cardinals offense was on life support, in came Hopkins ‘Nuking’ opposing secondaries to oblivion. Nuk has dominated in his two games upon his return totaling 22 receptions, 262 yards and a TD. Although Seattle’s True Matchup Rank is 27th for opposing wide receivers, the Seahawks have given up the ninth most passing yards at 1,893 and the seventh highest yards per attempt of 7. 

 Tight End 

Zach Ertz ($5,100) 

Ertz fileted this same Seattle defense for 70 yards on seven receptions three weeks ago. I expect more of the same being that they rank as the best True Matchup for opposing tight ends. Don’t sleep on Ertz this week. 

Evan Engram ($3,400)

Engram has had six or more targets in his past four games and has taken advantage of good matchups. He gets another juicy matchup this week against the Raiders. Las Vegas ranks as the 10th best True Matchup for opposing tight ends. Engram is a nice, cheap cash play this week. 

D/ST 

New England Patriots ($4,100)

How many times have we seen the Patriots defense destroy rookie QBs? HC Bill Belichick knows how to scheme and cause chaos for young quarterbacks and the Patriots rank first in hurry rate at 15%. Paying up for defenses isn’t great, however, there aren’t a lot of great options at defense this week. 

Favorite stacks:

1. Tua Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle with a Darnell Mooney or Khalil Herbert bring back

2. Rhamondre Stevenson + New England Patriots D/ST

3. Josh Allen + Gabe Davis/Dawson Knox

4. Kyler Murray + DeAndre Hopkins and/or Zach Ertz with Tyler Lockett bring back

5. Joe Burrow + Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd/Hayden Hurst with a DJ Moore or D’Onta Foreman bring back 

GPP Plays:

QB Kyler Murray ($7,400)

Kyler has been a nauseating rollercoaster this season, struggling against good teams and throttling bad teams. Murray does have four passing touchdowns in his previous two games, however, thanks to the return of DeAndre Hopkins. Murray should be able to handle a Seahawks defense that ranks as the 13th best matchup for quarterbacks and has also allowed the ninth most passing yards this season. 

QB Justin Herbert ($7,200)

Look, if PJ Walker can put up 300+ passing yards and a touchdown against the Falcons, then so can Justin Herbert. Atlanta slots in as the 3rd best True Matchup for opposing quarterbacks and, as expected, have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL this season. Sprinkle some Justin Herbert in your GPP lineups.  

RB Josh Jacobs ($7,300) 

ESPN

Just when you thought you could trust Jacobs, he stabs you in the fantasy back. Luckily, Jacobs has an excellent opportunity to bounce back this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars who rank as the 2nd best True Matchup for opposing running backs. The Saints were a tough team to run on, especially in the dome, but with the Jaguars matchup this week, Jacobs should have an easier time scoring points than he did in Week 8.

RB Travis Etienne ($6,300)

If you want a pivot off Josh Jacobs then I present Travis Etienne, who has back-to-back games of 100+ rushing yards and he gets the Las Vegas Raiders, who rank as the 10th best True Matchup for opposing running backs. Etienne should be low-rostered and presents excellent value this week. 

WR Cooper Kupp ($9,600)

See cash section

WR DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900), Tyreek Hill ($8,500) and Jaylen Waddle ($7,400)

All three of these wide receivers are great cash and GPP plays for reasons previously mentioned.

WR Terry McLaurin ($5,900)

McLaurin presents another great value GPP play. Since QB Taylor Heinicke has taken over, McLaurin has averaged eight targets per game. On paper, the Minnesota Vikings are a middle of the road matchup for opposing wide outs, however, they just got torched by DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore for 251 receiving yards and two receiving TDs. McLaurin’s arrow is pointing up. Slide him into some GPP lineups before everyone catches on. 

WR Josh Palmer ($5,100)

Someone has to catch passes for this LA Chargers team right? WR Keenan Allen is still questionable with a nagging hamstring injury and Mike Williams is out for at least four weeks. Palmer is the perfect GPP play because his opportunity meets the perfect matchup. The Atlanta Falcons rank as the best True Matchup for opposing WRs. I can see it now, Justin Herbert plus Austin Ekeler and Josh Palmer for the win!

TE Robert Tonyan ($3,800)

Robert Tonyan is certainly a risky play but he could pay huge dividends this week. Tonyan draws the 3rd best True Matchup for opposing tight ends in the Lions. With the Lions penchant for pushing the pace (as mentioned earlier), Packers QB Aaron Rodgers might have to pass a bit more than expected. Tonyan does have 22 targets over his past three games, so he can handle a heavy passing load.  

Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)

Wan’Dale Robinson flopped in a great matchup last week, bringing me down to 4-3.

Darnell Mooney ($4,700) 

The Bears just traded one of their better defensive players away and will need track suits to keep up with Hill and Waddle. Mooney should easily hit over 10+ DraftKings points in an expected shootout at Soldier field. 

Have a great Week 9 of DFS! Go win big!

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By Clayton Jones