True Value Olympics - Running Backs

Welcome to the True Value Olympics! 

One of the many things that separate BRoto Fantasy from the crowd is our attention to exclusive and advanced analytics. We aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the common player by giving every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.

The True Value Olympics will look back on the positional leaders in BRoto Fantasy’s advanced statistics and award medals and points based on the standings of each event. 

1st Place = Gold Medal (5 Points)

2nd Place = Silver Medal (4 Points)

3rd Place = Bronze Medal (3 Points)

4th Place = No Podium (2 Points)

5th Place = No Podium (1 Points)

The True Value Podium Finalists will determine once and for all who deserves the crown of 2021’s True Value King.

Our next heat of competitors will feature the NFL's top running backs!

RUSHING YARDS OVER EXPECTED

*A minimum of 100 rush attempts were required to qualify for this event*

Explanation

The amount of rushing yards a player gained compared to what was expected based on various situational factors. The prediction mimics the number of rushing yards the “average” player would earn in any given rushing scenario.

Three distinct categories break down Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE). For the purpose of this year’s True Value Olympics, we will omit RYOE/ATT and RYOE% from our podium scoring criteria. Instead, we will focus on the running backs with the highest cumulative RYOE throughout the 2021 season while using the other derivatives to explain how they achieved those numbers.

1st Place: Jonathan Taylor (5 Points)

RYOE = 564

2nd Place: Nick Chubb (4 Points)

RYOE = 368

3rd Place: Rashaad Penny (3 Points)

RYOE = 259

4th Place: Tony Pollard (2 Points) 

RYOE = 195

5th Place: Miles Sanders (1 Points)

RYOE = 191

Event Recap

The 2021 RB1 is off to a blistering start in this year's True Value Olympics, finishing with nearly 200 more RYOE than the runner-up. Jonathan Taylor averaged an earth-shattering 5.5 yards per carry, racking up a league-leading 1811 rushing yards (106.5 per game) on 335 carries. The Colts' workhorse force finished in the top 10 in both secondary RYOE categories as well, with 1.7 RYOE/ATT (2nd) and an RYOE% rating of 47.9% (8th). Taylor is the odds-on favorite to repeat as the RB1 in 2022 and is at a clear advantage after the first event.

NFL

RYOE highlights some of the best pure rushers in the NFL today, so there is no wonder how Nick Chubb wound up on the podium in this opening event. The caveat that makes Chubb’s second-place finish even more impressive is that the Browns lead back missed 3.5 games in 2021. Chubb’s tremendous power and elusiveness allow him to take more than is given from defenses consistently. The bruising fifth-year back matched Taylor with 5.5 yards per carry, recording 1259 rushing yards and needing just 228 attempts to do so. Chubb has carved out a feared reputation as an unstoppable force on the ground, and his efficiency numbers continue to reflect that sentiment.

Rashaad Penny smashed his way onto the podium by leading the NFL in RYOE/ATT. His 2.17 RYOE/ATT bested the league's reigning RB1 by 0.40 yards as Penny flashed the potential he was once appraised to possess. Penny completed the final five weeks of 2021 with four top-10 positional finishes and is an intriguing late-round running back target entering 2022. If Penny can finally string together a healthy season, he could wind up being one of the great steals of this year’s drafts.

Tony Pollard is the most efficient handcuff in all of fantasy football. Pollard had the Midas touch in 2021, turning every trace of his limited opportunity share (38.9%) into gold. The speedy change-of-pace weapon ranked second in the NFL with 6.2 yards per touch. Pollard managed 719 rushing yards on a mere 130 rushing attempts. His per-touch efficiency was on full display last season, ranking fifth with 1.5 RYOE/ATT and third with an RYOE% of 50.8%. Pollard’s upside will be capped for as long as Ezekiel Elliot is in a Cowboys jersey. However, the younger, faster Pollard has proven to be a viable weekly flex play as a backup with an RB1 ceiling should Elliot miss time.

Squeezing in at number five in our first event is the underutilized Miles Sanders. The soon-to-be fourth-year back was on the wrong end of negative game scripts and injury reports throughout the 2021 season. Sanders suited up for just 12 games, rushing for 754 yards on 137 attempts. A former second-round draft pick, Sanders has yet to find consistency in his three seasons with the Eagles. Nevertheless, his efficiency in the running game was evident in 2021.

SCRIMMAGE YARDS OVER EXPECTED

*A minimum of 165 Opportunities (Carries + Targets) were required to qualify for this event*

Explanation

A combination of Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE), Yards After The Catch Over Expected (YACOE), and completion probability gives us the expected amount of yards on any given play compared to the actual outcome.

This exhibition showcases the running backs that excel at both rushing and pass-catching. To even the playing field against cumulative yards earned, we will be focusing on Scrimmage Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (SYOE/ATT).

1st Place: Jonathan Taylor (5 Points)

SYOE/ATT = 1.83

2nd Place: Tony Pollard (4 Points)

SYOE/ATT = 1.71

3rd Place: Nick Chubb (3 Points)

SYOE/ATT = 1.65

4th Place: Austin Ekeler (2 Points)

SYOE/ATT = 1.25

5th Place: Aaron Jones (1 Points)

SYOE/ATT = 1.00

Event Recap

Taylor is off to what appears to be an insurmountable lead after the first two events in our True Value Olympics. Equally effective in the passing game as the running game, Taylor averaged 9.0 yards per reception, catching 40 of his 57 targets for 360 receiving yards. The 2021 leader in evaded tackles (165) proved impossible to defend in any and all situations.

Pollard makes his way into the scoring bracket in back-to-back events earning his first podium finish with a second-placed 1.71 SYOE/ATT. Pollard’s 6.25 scrimmage yards per opportunity ranked 1st in the NFL amongst running backs with >130 total opportunities. Pollard has proven deadly with every carry and reception. Unfortunately, fantasy managers may be waiting with bated breath for eternity for the Cowboys' backup to obtain a feature role in an NFL backfield. Nevertheless, it is encouraging to see the per-touch magician recognized and rewarded with his first podium finish in the True Value Olympics.

Always a kingsman, never a king. Chubb barely misses the leading spot in the second straight event, falling 0.19 RYOE/ATT shy of surpassing Taylor at the top of the podium. Chubb’s extraordinary ability as an effective runner lifted him to a bronze medal finish, but his limited work as a pass catcher left him shy of first place once again. Chubb earned a bottom-feeding target share of just 6.3%, running only 146 routes on the season with 20 receptions. The smallest increase in passing production could lift Chubb to heights of RB1 overall.

Austin Ekeler epitomizes the league-altering ability a versatile running back can give managers. The Chargers veteran back recorded 4.4 yards per carry, ending below the 1000-yard threshold with 911 yards on 206 rushing attempts. Ekelar supplemented his average rushing output with game-breaking passing production. He ranked first amongst all running backs in 2021 with 671 receiving yards, earning a 15.1% target share. Ekelar finished as the RB2 overall, averaging 21.5 PPG. He should maintain incredible efficiency and volume on the Chargers' offense in 2022.

Aaron Jones began to see his rushing role reduced with the Packers after the emergence of AJ Dillon. Jones recorded his lowest rushing total of the past three seasons, registering 799 yards on 171 attempts (4.7 YPC). A top-10 target share (12.9%) leading to 391 receiving yards on 52 receptions (7.5 YPR) helped lift Jones into his first scoring appearance in the True Value Olympics.

POINTS PER OPPORTUNITY EXCLUDING TOUCHDOWNS

*A minimum of 100 Opportunities (Carries + Targets) were required to qualify for this event*

Explanation

Knowing how unpredictable touchdown production can be from year to year, BRoto Fantasy developed Points Per Opportunity Excluding Touchdowns (PPOxTD) to strip away scoring volatility. This exclusive metric breaks down how many fantasy points a player scores per opportunity without the unpredictable statistical noise of touchdowns. This stat can help you identify players who overperformed or underperformed based on TD scoring.

1st Place: J.D. McKissic (5 Points)

PPOxTD = 0.816

2nd Place: Tony Pollard (4 Points)

PPOxTD = 0.740

3rd Place: Nyheim Hines (3 Points)

PPOxTD = 0.696

4th Place: Christian McCaffrey (2 Points)

PPOxTD = 0.693

5th Place: Kareem Hunt (1 Point)

PPOxTD = 0.657

Event Recap

This event was dominated by handcuff running backs that made the most of each touch despite a low number of scoring opportunities. Washington’s J.D. McKissic led the event with 0.816 PPOxTD, averaging 1.27 fantasy points per opportunity, with only four total touchdowns in the 2021 season. McKissic averaged 4.4 YPC and 9.2 YPR, hauling in 43 catches on 53 targets for 397 receiving yards. The sixth-year PPR stud ranked top ten amongst running backs in virtually all receiving categories, delivering him to a first-place podium finish.

It appears we have a Cinderella story from an unsuspecting underdog at this year’s True Value Olympics. Pollard makes his third scoring appearance in as many contests, with his second-straight silver medal finish. Effective and efficient at every facet of the game, Pollard maintained a respectable 10.2 PPG with 0.92 fantasy points per opportunity despite scoring only two total touchdowns on the season.

CBS

Nyheim Hines is a familiar face on the PPOxTD lists at BRoto Fantasy. The Colts pass-catcher extraordinaire profiles like a receiver that just so happens to line up in the backfield. The Colt's dual-threat earned an 11.4% target share, averaging 7.8 YPR and 1.63 yards per route run. Hines recorded 1.00 fantasy points per opportunity with only three touchdowns in 2021, finishing third place and a bronze medal in the PPOxTD event.

The True Value Olympics wouldn’t be complete without an appearance from the ultimate cheat code at running back. Christian McCaffrey lost the majority of his season due to injuries, missing ten total games. The man they call “Run CMC” remains at the top of the league in efficiency and fantasy points when he is on the field. The former MVP candidate recorded 343 receiving yards on 37 receptions (9.3 YPR) in just seven games. CMC averaged 5.8 yards per touch, ranking second in the NFL with a breakaway run rate of 9.1%. I would expect the Panthers’ backfield game-changer to continue his league-winning status if he can maintain a streak of good health in 2022.

We praised Kareem Hunt’s strong start to the 2021 season in our latest series entitled “AFC North Headlines: Newsworthy or Noise?” Hunt was a must-start asset before he was forced to miss nine games of the 2021 season with calf and ankle injuries. Before being sidelined, the Browns running back averaged 17.36 PPR PPG and 1.12 fantasy points per opportunity in the first six weeks of the 2021 season. Hunt returned for minimal work before being sidelined again, finishing with 1.06 fantasy points per opportunity, ranked sixth in 2021, while scoring just five touchdowns, equating to a PPOxTD rating of 0.657.

TRUE TARGET VALUE

*A minimum of 50 Targets were required to qualify for this event*

Explanation

A derivative of True Throw Value, True Target Value analyzes a player’s quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their QB’s True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable these player’s targets are. The higher the target value, the more projected points.

1st Place: Alvin Kamara (5 Points)

True Target Value = 6.09

2nd Place: Austin Ekeler (4 Points)

True Target Value = 4.40

3rd Place = Leonard Fournette (3 Points)

True Target Value = 4.19

4th Place = D’Andre Swift (2 Points)

True Target Value = 3.42

5th Place = Aaron Jones (1 Points)

True Target Value = 3.41

Event Recap

Alvin Kamara led all NFL running backs with a monstrous 20.2% target share in 2021, catching 47 of his 67 targets for 439 yards. Kamara ranked in the top 10 in all statistical receiving categories, despite only playing in 13 games. The Saints dealt with a laundry list of injuries throughout 2021, utilizing the dual-threat dynamo as both the primary receiver and lead-running back when healthy. Kamara maintained a ridiculous scoring pace as the focal point of the offense, whether catching passes from Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill, both of whom ranked among the league’s worst in True Throw Value.

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert was a significant factor in the True Value Olympics - Quarterbacks edition. Herbert’s league-leading True Player Grade helped carry several of the Chargers' weapons to career-best fantasy performances. Austin Ekeler was no exception to the third-year quarterback's phenomenal 2021 season. Ekeler’s league-leading 90 targets were met with incredible efficiency, earning him a second-place podium finish in the True Target Value event.

Leonard Fournette’s 6.0 targets per game led all eligible running backs in 2021. Fournette thrived in his “next man up” role as the Buccaneers attempted to fill the receiving void left behind by the absences of several star pass-catchers. Fournette’s route participation increased linearly throughout the 2021 season, finishing with a 7th ranked 52.9% rating. "Lombardi Lenny" relished as a receiver, finishing third in True Target value. Catching passes from the greatest quarterback to ever play the game certainly helps.

Aaron Jones is criminally underrated as a fantasy stud. His elite-level receiving ability and connection with future first-ballot Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers have been on display since the Packers running back broke out in 2018. For reasons unbeknownst, Jones remains underrated as one of the NFL’s best pass-catching backs. Jones represents terrific value with legitimate RB1 upside this season now that Davante Adams is in a Raiders uniform. Expect the Packers' sixth-year do-it-all running back to bear a massive role in the offense in 2022.

TRUE PLAYER GRADE

Explanation

True Player Grade is a composite score based on current year production that evaluates past performance and tries to predict future production. All players with 5+ hames and 6+ PPG in a given season between 2000 and 2021 are placed on a 0-100 scale.

1st Place: Jonathan Taylor (5 Points)

True Player Grade = 98.9 (A+)

2nd Place: Austin Ekeler (4 Points)

True Player Grade = 96.2 (A+)

3rd Place: Derrick Henry (3 Points)

True Player Grade = 94.7 (A)

4th Place: Leonard Fournette (2 Points)

True Player Grade = 93.6 (A+)

5th Place: Alvin Kamara & Christian McCaffrey (1 Points)

True Player Grade = 92.4 (A)

Event Recap

Taylor takes home his third gold medal of the True Value Olympics, leading all participants with a 98.9 True Player Grade in our final event. Taylor embodies what it means to be productive with every opportunity, as his increase in volume was met with extraordinary efficiency across the board.

2021’s RB2 overall makes one last appearance before our final True Value Podium reveal. Ekeler averaged 21.5 PPG while leading all running backs with 20 total touchdowns last season. Ekeler’s game is tailor-made for fantasy football. His 2022 outlook is sky-high in one of the league’s top offenses.

Managers were denied the beauty of a historic back-to-back 2000-yard rushing season from Derrick Henry. The Titans bruiser led the NFL in PPG (24.2) for the first eight games of 2021 before being forced to miss the remainder of the season with a broken foot. Through the eight weeks of the 2021 NFL season, Derrick Henry racked up 219 carries. That is not a typo. Henry led the league in rush attempts at that juncture by 68 carries. He averaged 27.3 rush attempts per game, which was on pace to shatter his previous 2020 season record of 378 rush attempts. Before being injured, the “Big Dog” ranked first amongst running backs in total fantasy points, 49.2 points ahead of the RB2 at the time (D’Andre Swift). The Titans will look to utilize Henry as much as his body allows in 2022.

Leonard Fournette helped managers bring home a league championship in 2021, finishing as the RB3 in PPG (18.3). The former top-5 draft pick shouldered a massive role for the Buccaneers in the passing department, picking up the slack from the absences of Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown throughout the 2021 season. Fournette’s rushing efficiency and expanded role in the passing game made him a coveted asset down the stretch. The Buccaneers will enter the 2022 season, with Fournette maintaining the lead in the backfield. A positive sign for continued success from the 27-year-old veteran running back.

The battle for the fifth place came down to a hair-splitting tie between Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey. Kamara edges McCaffrey in the final rankings of BRoto Fantasy’s True Player Grades, with 307 total opportunities to McCaffrey’s 140. The Saints' all-pro back averaged 18.1 PPG (RB4) in 2021. Kamara topped all running backs with an insane 20.2% target share as the Saints' number one weapon in the passing game. He finished the 2021 season with 1337 yards from scrimmage in 13 games.

TRUE VALUE PODIUM FINALISTS

Bronze Medal

Nick Chubb - 6 Points

Alvin Kamara - 6 Points

Silver Medal

Austin Ekeler - 10 Points

Tony Pollard - 10 Points

And the winner of the inaugural running back True Value Olympics, claiming the rightful crown of BRoto Fantasy’s True Value King…

Gold Medal

Jonathan Taylor - 15 Points

Tony Pollard made a surprise come-from-behind chase at the True Value crown but ultimately fell flat in the final spectacle. Austin Ekeler fought his way to a shared podium finish with Pollard, showing out in the pass-catching events en route to a second-place finish.

Jonathan Taylor reigns supreme as the winner of the True Value Olympics, finishing first place in all but two events. Taylor’s victory at these games should come as no surprise after his stunning resume of 2021 production. Entering his third season at just 23 years old, Taylor may surpass the great heights he met last season with a repeat performance as fantasy football’s overall RB1 in 2022.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at BRoto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward