Overall finish at a position can be very misleading and, in many cases, can provide a disingenuous argument for or against a player. Points per game is a far more reliable stat, as it compares each player on a per game basis rather than a full season. This is especially relevant for players who missed time due to injuries/suspensions. Robert Woods, for example, finished 2021 as the WR45, but was the WR15 in points per game—which is much more telling of how effective he was as a fantasy asset while on the field.
In Part One of the Overall Finish/PPG Report, I have highlighted 18 players with notable discrepancies between their overall finish and their points per game in order to give you a better viewpoint on each player, with a small takeaway for each.
Part One will highlight players with a PPG finish better than their overall finish. Part two will highlight players with a PPG finish worse than their overall finish.
The players are listed in order of net difference. Here we go.
Robert Woods (TEN WR)
LA Times
Overall Finish - WR45
PPG Finish - WR15
Net Difference -30
ADP - WR40
Takeaway: Robert Woods was doing Robert Woods things last season despite being overtaken by Cooper Kupp as the #1 option. The ice cream sandwich (Broto’s nickname for Woods because he is always underrated but always delivers like an ice cream sandwich) has been a solid producer for years now and is set to join former True Value King Ryan Tannehill as a top 2 option in the passing attack. At WR40, he is a good bet at ADP.
2. Logan Thomas (WSH TE)
Overall Finish - TE30
PPG Finish - TE10
Net Difference -20
ADP - TE21
Takeaway: An oft-injured 2021 season has put a sour taste in the mouths of Logan Thomas drafters. While he did not live up to his ADP overall, he was still a low end TE1 on a weekly basis when healthy enough to be on the field. With a whole offseason to get healthy, Thomas provides fantasy managers who wait on the position with a nice late round TE option.
3. Corey Davis (NYJ WR)
Overall Finish - WR61
PPG Finish - WR36
Net Difference -25
ADP - WR68
Takeaway: Corey Davis was a better fantasy player in 2021 than his ADP reflects. While an injury shortened his fantasy season to just nine games, in those nine games he produced two top 10 overall WR performances and four top 30 performances. The Jets brought in Garrett Wilson this season which has bottomed out Davis’ ADP all the way to WR68. I still expect Davis to play a ton of snaps and put together several useful weeks. Davis is one of my favorite targets this late in the draft, especially in best ball.
4. Kareem Hunt (CLE RB)
Overall Finish - RB45
PPG Finish - RB22
Net Difference -23
ADP - RB29
Takeaway: Kareem Hunt is one of the easiest picks at ADP this season. He has always been an RB2 or better. Getting him at a mid RB3 cost is a bet you should absolutely be willing to take. Simple as that.
5. Rashaad Penny (SEA RB)
Overall Finish - RB47
PPG Finish - RB27
Net Difference -20
ADP - RB32
I have made my stance on Penny very well known for this season on podcasts and on Twitter. He was a top 5 back down the stretch last season and he has a chance to crush his ADP if he can remain healthy. That is a big if, but the risk is absolutely over baked into the cost. He was my most rostered RB in underdog drafts when his ADP was around 120. His ADP is now within the top 100. Drats. I still like him at his cost of RB32 but be aware that his draft cost is very quickly ascending. He may not be a value much longer.
6. Boston Scott (PHI RB)
Overall Finish - RB47
PPG Finish - RB30
Net Difference -17
Kenneth Gainwell ADP - RB49
Takeaway: I am expecting Gainwell to usurp Boston Scott this season in his second year in the league, so I mixed it up a bit and supplied Gainwell’s ADP here rather than Scott’s. This role will give Gainwell a bit of standalone value on top of being a high upside handcuff. At RB49 cost, he makes a ton of sense at ADP.
7. Jameis Winston (NO QB)
Overall Finish - QB32
PPG Finish - QB14
Net Difference -18
ADP - QB22
Takeaway: Jameis was a high end QB2 last season on a PPG basis but was very erratic for fantasy purposes. He finished the season with two top 5 finishes and three finishes outside the top 24. Going into the season as the starter with a solid supporting cast, Jameis looks like a value at ADP, even if he does remain an inconsistent producer.
8. Jerry Jeudy (DEN WR)
Overall Finish - WR88
PPG Finish - WR70
Net Difference -18
ADP - WR22
Takeaway: Jerry Jeudy has just three top 30 performances in 25 games through his first two seasons. Bad QB or not, that is just disgusting. Jeudy has been a disappointment and I am not sure why he is getting a free pass from the fantasy community for such limited production. At WR22 cost, I am happy to let others select Jeudy, even with Russell Wilson in Denver.
9. Elijah Mitchell (SF WR)
Overall Finish - RB26
PPG Finish - RB12
Net Difference -14
ADP - RB21
Takeaway: To finish as an RB1 on a PPG basis as a UDFA who did not do much through the air is super impressive. He was an absolute force on the ground. Mitchell will go into the season as the lead back for the Niners dynamic rushing attack. Health concerns are an issue for Mitchell, but he makes sense at ADP, as he should be an RB2 as long as he is healthy.
10. Elijah Moore (NYJ WR)
Overall Finish - WR44
PPG Finish - WR31
Net Difference -13
ADP - WR31
Takeaway: Elijah Moore was WR31 in PPG including his slow start to the season, a common occurrence for rookies. Once week 7 hit, he became a weekly WR1 option before an injury ended his season. With an improved offensive line and a second year Zach Wilson, Moore’s ADP makes little sense, even with the addition of Garrett Wilson. Pick him.
11. Darren Waller (LV TE)
Overall Finish - TE17
PPG Finish - TE5
Net Difference -12
ADP - TE5
Takeaway: Fantasy drafters are rightfully ignoring Waller’s overall finish as he was a weekly no brainer start every week that he was healthy last season. He makes a ton of sense at ADP at a weak position.
12. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC RB)
Overall Finish - RB38
PPG Finish - RB26
Net Difference -12
ADP - RB26
Takeaway: CEH has been a let down for fantasy managers throughout his young career. He has yet to prove that he can be a consistent producer, even with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. His ADP has fallen off a cliff compared to his first two seasons, with Ronald Jones’ signing striking doubt in the heart of fantasy managers. At his current ADP, however, the risk is baked into the cost. I am perfectly fine taking the shot on CEH outside the top 24 RBs as there is certainly a chance he handles the majority of the work in the high scoring KC offense and returns RB2 value.
13. Jarvis Landry (NO WR)
Overall Finish - WR59
PPG Finish - WR48
Net Difference -11
ADP - WR52
Takeaway: Jarvis Landry is looking to bounce back from a down season in Cleveland, now heading home to play in Louisiana with the Jameis Winston led Saints. While his upside is likely capped at this point in his career, his WR52 ADP is simply disrespectful. His competition for touches in the WR room are Michael Thomas, who is a complete wild card with a non zero chance of just not playing again this season, and rookie WR, Chris Olave. Landry should be a solid safety blanket for Winston and a decently high target share guy, making him an easy pick at his current ADP.
14. Adam Theilen (MIN WR)
Overall Finish - WR23
PPG Finish - WR14
Net Difference -9
ADP - WR29
Takeaway: Theilen was fairly TD dependent in 2021, and while TDs are not typically a sticky stat, he has proven to be a lethal red zone weapon for Kirk Cousins and it would be silly to think he does not continue to be Cousins’ go to guy in the most valuable portion of the field. With Kevin O’Connell coming over, the Vikings are also expected to work at a much higher pace with a higher passing rate than they have produced under Mike Zimmer. Theilen is being undervalued and provides a nice value in redraft and best ball fantasy leagues.
15. Daniel Jones (NYG QB)
Overall Finish - QB27
PPG Finish - QB19
Net Difference -8
ADP - QB30
Takeaway: Fantasy managers’ confidence in Daniel Jones is at an all time low, evidenced by his bottom of the barrel ADP this season. While I am also not a fan of Jones myself, the only logical way for him not to return value at ADP is if he loses his starting job. With Brian Daboll taking over as the Giants head coach, I am willing to take the chance on Jones as a QB2, especially since he is free.
16. JD McKissic (WSH RB)
Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post
Overall Finish - RB40
PPG Finish - RB35
Net Difference -5
ADP - RB48
Takeaway: McKissic is my most rostered best ball RB. He was exactly what fantasy drafters wanted relative to cost in 2021, producing five top 15 weeks in the eleven weeks in which he played, he just happened to get hurt which shortened his season. With Washington paying him impact player money to retain his pass catching role, there is no reason why his ADP should have dropped as far as it has. He should be a very solid RB3 option with spike weeks sprinkled in throughout the season.
17. D’Andre Swift (DET RB)
Overall Finish - RB19
PPG Finish - RB14
Net Difference -5
ADP - RB9
Takeaway: Mark me down as one of the very few fantasy analysts who isn’t willing to go all in on D’Andre Swift this season. I understand the upside of a CMC-lite season but I don’t see any real reason to believe that will happen. Swift shared early down work with Jamaal Williams last season and I expect that to remain the case in 2022. Swift was also a fairly average RB in 2021 through the lens of several advanced stats. He is also on a bad offense and that is not going to change. I see RB9 as more of Swift’s ceiling rather than a median outcome or floor. The only way he surpasses RB9 on a PPG basis is if he starts catching 5 balls a game, and I’m not sure that will happen. I understand the appeal, I just do not know if I am willing to bet a top 15 pick on it.
18. Tee Higgins (CIN WR)
Overall Finish - WR18
PPG Finish - WR13
Net Difference -5
ADP - WR12
Takeaway: Check out this tweet after week 7 of last season -
Now look at Tee Higgins’ game log -
True Target Value told you that Tee Higgins was severely underperforming and to target him for the second half of the year. If you listened, you were extremely happy (True Target Value is a Broto exclusive stat by the way, I suggest you become familiar with it for reasons like this!). Tee Higgins is a stud and should retain a large share of the targets in the super exciting Bengals passing offense. I am perfectly fine with drafting Higgins at ADP, even with superstar JaMarr Chase on the other side of the field.
Part Two coming soon!
The Fantasy Football by BRoto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store!
Download it today for a start sit tool, player cards, statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more. FREE for a limited time.
By Michael Petropoulos
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.